Thursday, June 21, 2012

Draft Squaretable Discussion

Twas the night before draft weekend. Our new contributor, Dave Cameron, chimes in with me on what he'd like to see the Flames do this weekend in Pittsburgh. 


Realistically, who is the one guy you're pulling for at #14? 
GW: Hard to say. The most sensible move would be to key in on a D man, but I am so easily drawn by skilled forwards. If, for whatever reason, Grigorenko were to drop, I wouldn't hesitate to take that risk. You'd get a top-3 talent in the middle of the first round. More realistically, I would go for Derrick Pouliot. I see him as more skilled than some of the names on forward in that range (Faksa, Gaunce). Watching a handful of Portland games this year, I was very impressed with his creativity and puck skills - something the Flames could surely use.


DC: I'm pulling for Zemgus Girgensons. Looking at many of the first rounders, Girgensons is described as a fierce two way player, his NHL comparable would be Rod Brind' Amour. The guy is a force in the weight room, but his two way game is undoubtedly present. Winning key draws, tough along the wall, and would be a great addition. Girgensons is the type of player Darryl always "said" he wanted to draft, but they didn't pan out (see Kris Chucko). Girgensons is a surefire two-way NHL player for the future.


Should the Flames move an asset to trade up?
GW: I definitely wouldn't. I think one guy out of the top-10 will fall to the Flames at 14. In most drafts, I'd be all over trading up. This time around, there doesn't seem to be as much certainty as to how it will play out from pick 1-20. So, I'd prefer the Flames ride it out and see who falls in their lap.


DC: Yes, but only if it involves maintaining youth. Unfortunately, I believe the Flames will not be able to move an asset to trade up, The integral pieces of this team going forward are what interest other teams, not the David Moss and Anton Babchuks. Maintaining Baertschi, Brodie, Giordano among others is key. I believe it is more important to make the proper choice at 14, and as Feaster has said, stick to the list of taking the best player available.


Should they add another pick in trading down?
GW: This is something I think they will (and should) do. Potentially finding a way to select twice (1 F, 1D?) in the top-40 would be ideal. Easier said than done, though.


DC: No. There are some intriguing names in that first round, prospects with a high ceiling. Although a drop exists outside of the top 2 (people will argue the drop occurs after the top 4 or 5), these are still quality prospects. As an organization, it's better to take a chance on a first rounder, rather than two seconds, as the possibility of that player actually making your roster and an impact some day is significantly better.


What roster player would you like to see dealt at the draft?
GW: I think the Flames are in a tough spot here. They've made it clear Kipper and Iggy will be sticking around. Looking at the rest of the roster, you'd be selling low. I would look to deal Jokinen's rights, potentially for a mid-round pick. I would hold off on the salary dumps until after July 1, when teams become more desperate to add pieces. To comment on the speculation, I would NOT look to deal Bouwmeester or Backlund, simply because they are more valuable to the team than the market.


DC: Que the Matt Stajan responses, but not from me: I have a Stajan jersey. He picked up his game down the stretch last season, and his market value sucks. All the talk about Bouwmeester being traded brings up mixed emotions. Is his contract bloated? Yes. Does he act uninterested in interviews, thus affecting the perception of him? Yes. Do the Flames have anyone that can play shutdown minutes half the game? No. J-Bo is an important part of this team, and should only be dealt in a deal that comes with an immediate (potential) replacement for him and those minutes.


Out of the guys under contract, one might suggest Glencross would be a candidate to be traded. Even though he had a great season after signing his new contract, I still have doubts as to whether or not he can continue to produce at that clip.


Either way, not dying to get rid of anyone on the immediate roster, but hoping that a philosophy shift with youth will bring this group out of mediocrity.

Follow Dave on twitter @dcam94, Dome Ice Advantage @WiswellMRU

Michael Fabrig's Mock Draft

Here is a mock draft from Michael, projecting which player each team will take in the first round. Thanks again to Michael for his contributions this week. Follow him on twitter @gotitotti. Follow Dome Ice Advantage @WiswellMRU.
  1. Edmonton Oilers – Nail Yakupov – RW – 5’11” – 31G, 38A; 69 points in 42 GP – Sarnia Sting – OHL
  1. Columbus Blue Jackets – Alex Galchenyuk – C – 6’1” – 31G, 52A; 83 points in 68 GP (’10-11) – Sarnia Sting – OHL
  1. Montreal Canadiens – Mikhail Grigorenko – C – 6’3” – 40G, 45A; 85 points in 59 GP – Quebec Remparts – QMJHL
  1. New York Islanders – Ryan Murray – D – 6’1” – 9G, 22A; 31 points in 46 GP – Everett Silvertips – WHL 
  1. Toronto Maple Leafs – Filip Forsberg – LW – 6’2” – 8G, 9A; 17 points in 43 GP – Leksand – Allsvenskan
  1. Anaheim Ducks – Griffin Reinhart – D – 6’3” – 12G, 24A; 36 points in 58 GP – Edmonton Oil Kings – WHL
  1. Minnesota Wild – Morgan Rielly – D – 6’0” – 3G, 15A; 18 points in 18 GP – Moose Jaw Warriors – WHL   
  1. Carolina Hurricanes – Cody Ceci – D – 6’1” – 17G, 43A; 60 points in 64 GP – Ottawa 67’s – OHL
  1. Winnipeg Jets – Matt Dumba – D – 5’11” – 20G, 37A; 57 points in 69 GP – Red Deer Rebels – WHL
  1. Tampa Bay Lightning – Jacob Trouba – D – 6’2” – 4G, 14A; 18 points in 22 GP – USNTDP Juniors – USHL
  1. Washington Capitals – Olli Maatta – D – 6’1” – 5G, 27A; 32 points in 58 GP – London Knights – OHL
  1. Buffalo Sabres – Hampus Lindholm– D – 6’2” – 1G, 3A; 4 points in 20 GP – Rogle – Allsvenskan
  1. Dallas Stars – Radek Faksa – C – 6’3” – 29G, 38A; 67 points in 62 GP – Kitchener Rangers – OHL
  1. Calgary Flames – Teuvo Teravainen– RW – 5’11” – 11G, 7A; 18 points in 40 GP  – Jokerit – SM-liiga
  1. Ottawa Senators – Derrick Pouliot – D –  5’11” – 11G, 48A; 59 points in 72 GP – Portland Winter Hawks – WHL
  1. Washington Capitals – Zemgus Girgensons – C – 6’2” – 24G, 31A; 55 points in 49 GP – Dubuque Fighting Saints – USHL
  1. San Jose Sharks – Slater Koekkoek– D – 6’2” – 5G, 13A; 18 points in 26 GP – Peterborough Petes – OHL
  1. Chicago Blackhawks – Andrei Vasilevski – G – 6’3” – 27 GP, 2.23 GAA, .931 SV % – Tolpar UFA – MHL
  1. Tampa Bay Lightning – Matt Finn – D – 6’0” – 10G, 37A; 47 points in 61 GP – Guelph Storm – OHL
  1. Philadelphia Flyers – Tomas Hertl – C – 6’2” – 12G, 13A; 25 points in 38 GP – HC Slavia Praha – Czech
  1. Buffalo Sabres – Brady Skjei – D – 6’2” – 3G, 9A; 12 points in 24 GP – USNTDP – USHL
  1. Pittsburgh Penguins – Malcolm Subban – G – 6’0” – 39 GP, 2.50 GAA, .923 SV% –  Belleville Bulls – OHL
  1. Florida Panthers – Ludvig Bystrom– D – 6’0” – 0G, 1A; 1 point in 20 GP – MODO – Elitserien
  1. Boston Bruins – Michael Matheson– D – 6’2” – 11G, 16A; 27 points in 53 GP – Dubuque Fighting Saints – USHL
  1. St. Louis Blues – Brendan Gaunce – C – 6’2” – 28G, 40A; 68 points in 68 GP – Belleville Bulls – OHL
  1. Vancouver Canucks – Oscar Dansk– G – 6’2” – 28 GP, 2.82 GAA, .910 SV% – Brynas J20 – SuperElit 
  1. Phoenix Coyotes – Henrik Samuelsson – RW – 6’2” – 7G, 16A; 23 points in 28 GP – Edmonton Oil Kings – WHL
  1. New York Rangers – Phil Di Giuseppe – C – 6’1” – 11G, 15A; 26 points in 40 GP – Univ. of Michigan – NCAA
  1. New Jersey Devils – Mark Jankowski – C – 6’2” – 53G, 40A; 93 points in 57 GP – Stanstead College – CAHS
  1. Los Angeles Kings – Nicolas Kerdiles – C – 6’1 – 4G, 9A; 13 points in 18 GP – USNTDP Juniors – USHL

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Rounds 6 & 7 Rankings - by Michael Fabrig

Round 6 (151-180)

151. Koblasa, Petr - RW - 15G, 7A; 22 points in 38 GP - HC Karlovy Vary U20 - Czech U20

152. Nelson, Logan - C - 23G, 39A; 62 points in 71 GP - Victoria Royals - WHL

153. Blandisi, Joseph - LW - 17G, 14A; 31 points in 68 GP - Owen Sound Attack - OHL

154. Marcantuoni, Matia - LW - 9G, 5A; 14 points in 25GP - Kitchener Rangers - OHL

155. Bartosak, Patrik - G - 25 GP, 2.74, .915 SV% - Red Deer Rebels - WHL

156. Fejes, Hunter - LW - 38G, 40A; 78 points in 55 GP - Shattuck St. Mary's Midget Prep - USHS

157. Rupert, Ryan - C - 17G, 31A; 48 points in 63 GP - London Knights - OHL

158. Farley, Austin - LW - 28G, 31A; 59 points in 51 GP - Fargo Force - USHL

159. Curcuruto, Gianluca - D - 3G, 13A; 16 points in 63 GP - Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds - OHL

160. Carrick, Trevor - D - 6G, 13A; 19 points in 68 GP - Mississauga St. Michael's Majors - OHL

161. Collier, Brendan - LW - 6G, 11A; 17 points in 8 GP - Malden Catholic High - USHS

162. Quenneville, Peter - RW - 31G, 50A; 81 points in 53 GP - Sherwood Park Crusaders - AJHL

163. Corbett, Cody - D - 6G, 20A; 26 points in 54 GP - Edmonton Oil Kings - WHL

164. Montgomery, Jake - 20G, 38A; 58 points in 39 GP - Shattuck St. Mary's Midget Prep - USHS

165. Andersson, Sebastian - G - 12 GP, 1.72, .937 S% - Timrå J20 - SuperElit

166. Bradley, Cody - LW - 7G, 4A; 11 points in 16 GP - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL

167. Culkin, Ryan - D - 6G, 19A; 25 points in 60 GP - Québec Remparts - QMJHL

170. Hodges, Steven - C - 21G, 25A; 46 points in 72 GP - Victoria Royals - WHL

171. Bayreuther, Gavin - D - 14G, 20A; 34 points in 29 GP - Holderness School - USHS

172. Fernholm, Simon - D - 3G, 12A; 15 points in 47 GP - Huddinge IK J20 - SuperElit

173. DeBlouw, Matt - C - 11G, 22A; 33 points in 58 GP - Muskegon Lumberjacks - USHL

174. Willcox, Reece - D - 5G, 18A; 23 points in 52 GP - Merritt Centennials - BCHL

175. Arzamastsev, Zakhar - D - 0G, 6A; 6 points in 10 GP - Kuznetskie Medvedi - MHL

176. Karterud, Jørgen - RW - 9G, 13A; 22 points in 13 GP - Vålerenga - Norway

177. Hjärpe, Björn - LW - 14G, 24A; 38 points in 46 GP - Södertälje J20 - SuperElit

178. Nielsen, Jonatan - D - 5G, 4A; 9 points in 38 GP - Linköping J20 - SuperElit

179. McKay, Ryan - G - 35GP, 2.18, .920 SV% - Greenbay Gamblers - USHL

180. Kurker, Sam - RW - Stats unavailable

Round 7 (181-210)

181. De Jersey, Paul - RW - 41G, 57A; 98 points in 59 GP - Prince George Spruce Kings - BCHL

182. Gunnarsson, Daniel - D - 3G, 4A; 7 points in 46 GP - Luleå - Elitserien

183. Kamaev, Denis - LW - 21G, 34A; 55 points in 67 GP - Rouyn-Noranda Huskies - QMJHL

184. Volek, Dominik - RW - 14G, 18A; 32 points in 70 GP - Regina Pats - WHL

185. Nilsson, Jacob - LW - 4G, 11A; 15 points in 30 GP - Tingsryd J20 - SuperElit

186. Kerfoot, Alex - C - 25G, 44A; 69 points in 51 GP - Coquitlam Express - BCHL

187. Smith, Colin - C - 35G, 50A; 85 points in 72 GP - Kamloops Blazers - WHL

188. Brown, Connor - RW - 25G, 28A; 53 points in 68 GP - Erie Otters - OHL

189. Gustavsson, Victor - LW - 0G, 2A; 2 points in 2 GP - Huddinge IK - SWE-1

190. Magee, Brandon - C - 23G, 24A; 47 points in 65 GP - Victoria Royals - WHL

191. Clarke, Michael - RW - 15G, 21A; 36 points in 68 GP - Windsor Spitfires - OHL

192. Beauvillier, Francis - C - 23G, 11A; 34 points in 67 GP - Rimouski Oceanic - QMJHL

193. Richardson, Evan - C - 19G, 36A; 55 points in 48 GP - Powell River Kings - BCHL

194. Chyzyk, Bryn - LW - 28G, 21A; 49 points in 57 GP - Fargo Force - USHL

195. Rasmusson, Jens - C - 6G, 1A; 7 points in 6 GP - Södertälje J18 - J18 Allsvenskan

196. Stoick, Gavin - D - 2G, 4A; 6 points in 32 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL

197. McKee, Mike - D - 2G, 17A; 19 points in 59 GP - Lincoln Stars - USHL

198. Dotchin, Jake - D - 3G, 16A; 19 points in 64 GP - Owen Sound Attack - OHL

199. Leslie, Zack - D - 2G, 15A; 17 points in 65 GP - Guelph Storm - OHL

200. Moroz, Mitchell - RW - 16G, 9A; 25 points in 66 GP - Edmonton Oil Kings - WHL

201. Pelech, Adam - D - 2G, 18A; 20 points in 44 GP - Erie Otters - OHL

202. Uldall, Bjørn - D - 9G, 9A; 18 points in 30 GP - Herning II - Denmark2

203. Khatsei, Arseni - LW - 10G, 5A; 15 points in 36 GP - MHC Spartak - MHL

204. Björklund, Gustav - C/RW - 9G, 5A; 14 points in 13GP - Södertälje SK - SuperElit

205. Janmark Nylén, Mattias - C/LW - 23G, 38A; 61 points in 40 GP - AIK J20 - SuperElit

206. Nanne, Lou - LW - 7G, 13A; 20 points in 20 GP - Team Southwest - USHS

207. Johnson, Adam - LW - 9G, 8A; 17 points in 21 GP - Hibbing-Chisholm High - USHS

208. Nättinen, Topi - C - 15G, 28A; 43 points in 40 GP - JYP U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga

209. Thomson, Ben - LW - 11G, 30A; 41 points in 67 GP - Kitchener Rangers - OHL

210. Nykopp, Thomas - LW - 13G, 15A; 28 points in 46 GP - Tri-City Storm - USHL

Follow Michael on twitter @gotitotti, follow Dome Ice Advantage @WiswellMRU

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Round 4 & 5 Rankings - by Michael Fabrig

ROUND 4 (91-120)

91. Korpisalo, Joonas - G - 28 GP, 2.04, .920 SV% - Jokerit U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga

92. Caggiula, Drake - C - 10G, 24A; 34 points in 25 GP - Stouffville Spirit - OJHL

93. Hudon, Charles - LW/C - 25G, 41A; 66 points in 59 GP - Chicoutimi Saguenéens - QMJHL

94. Bohman, Marcus - D - 10G, 20A; 30 points in 40 GP - MODO J20 - SuperElit

95. Ikonen, Henri - C - 17G, 28A; 45 points in 37 GP - KalPa U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga

96. Locke, Eric - C - 13G, 14A; 27 points in 31 GP - Saginaw Spirit - OHL

97. Nieves, Cristoval - C/LW - 2G, 8A; 10 points in 13 GP - Indiana Ice - USHL

98. Smith, Gemel - C - 21G, 39A; 60 points in 68 GP - Owen Sound Attack - OHL

99. Athanasiou, Andreas - C - 22G, 15A; 37 points in 63 GP - London Knights - OHL

100. Graham, Jesse - D - 4G, 39A; 43 points in 67 GP - Niagara IceDogs - OHL

101. Gusev, Nikita - LW - 30G, 40A; 76 points in 34 GP - CSKA-Krasnaja Armija Moskva - MHL

102. Bussières, Raphaël - LW - 21G, 23A; 44 points in 56 GP - Baie-Comeau Drakkar - QMJHL

103. Shore, Quentin - C - 8G, 2A; 10 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL

104. Stolarz, Anthony - G - 50 GP, 2.84, .920 SV% - Corpus Christi IceRays - NAHL

105. Griffith, Seth - C - 45G, 40A; 85 points in 68 GP - London Knights - OHL

106. Franson, Cain - C - 27G, 31A; 58 points in 70 GP - Vancouver Giants - WHL

107. Sandberg, Filip - C 14G, 20A; 34 points in 43 GP - HV71 J20 - SuperElit

108. Nilsson, Ludvig - C/LW - 16G, 16A; 32 points in 47 GP - Timrå J20 - SuperElit

109. Cooper, Brian - D - 6G, 18A; 24 points in 55 GP - Fargo Force - USHL

110. Blujus, Dylan - D - 7G, 27A; 34 points in 66 GP - Brampton Battalion - OHL

111. Stepan, Zach - C - 22G, 43A; 65 points in 50 GP - Shattuck St. Mary's Midget Prep - USHS

112. Pearson, Tanner - 37G, 54A; 91 points in 60 GP - Barrie Colts - OHL

113. Holland, Rhett - D - 3G, 7A; 10 points in 47 GP - Okotoks Oilers - AJHL

114. Kilnar, Ales - RW - 28G, 23A; 51 points in 39 GP - HC Vitkovice U20 - Czech U20

115. Brown, Travis - D - 7G, 24A; 31 points in 66 GP - Moose Jaw Warriors - WHL

116. Blugers, Teodors - C - 24G, 64A; 88 points in 51GP - Shattuck St. Mary's Midget Prep - USHS

117. Lauridsen, Kristoffer - C - 21G, 12A; 33 points in 25 GP - Herning II - Denmark2

118. Michaelson, A.J. - C - 6G, 14A; 20 points in 53 GP - Waterloo Black Hawks - USHL

119. Ullberg, Richard - G - 23 GP, 2.36, .901 SV% - SaiPa - SM-liiga

120. Djoos, Christian - D - 3G, 21A; 24 points in 40 GP - Brynäs J20 - SuperElit

ROUND 5 (121-150)

121. Osnovin, Vyacheslav - C - 7G, 18A; 25 points in 45 GP - Belie Medvedi Chelyabinsk - MHL

122. Andrighetto, Sven - LW/RW - 36G, 38A; 74 points in 62 GP - Rouyn-Noranda Huskies - QMJHL

123. Czarnik, Austin - C - 10G, 27A; 37 points in 40 GP - Miami Uni. (OH) - NCAA

124. Görtz, Max - RW - 2G, 3A; 5 points in 18 GP - Färjestad - Elitserien

125. Jevpalovs, Nikita - RW - 8G, 13A; 21 points in 58 GP - HK Riga - MHL

126. Duane, Kevin - 29G, 24A; 53 points in 29 GP - Brunswick Prep - USHS

127. Wilson, Tom - RW - 9G, 18A; 27 points in 49 GP - Plymouth Whalers - OHL

128. Barber, Riley - RW/C - 5G, 6A; 11 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL

129. Nemec, Eric - LW - 17G, 17A; 34 points in 34 GP - HC Vitkovice U20 - Czech U20

130. Kukan, Dean - D - 5G, 16A; 21 points in 42 GP - Luleå J20 - SuperElit

131. Besse, Grant - LW - 40G, 35A; 75 points in 25 GP - Benilde-St. Margaret's High - USHS

132. Plutnar, Michal - D - 4G, 9A; 13 points in 62 GP - Tri-City Americans - WHL

133. Rupert, Matt - 12G, 23A; 35 points in 48 GP - London Knights - OHL

134. Walters, Nick - D - 6G, 12A; 18 points in 62 GP - Everett Silvertips - WHL

135. Mermis, Dakota - 5G, 22A; 27 points in 60 GP - Green Bay Gamblers - USHL

136. Beran, Matej - C - 22G, 39A; 61 points in 68 GP - Prince Edward Island Rocket - QMJHL

137. Stephenson, Chandler - C - 22G, 20A; 42 points in 55 GP - Regina Pats - WHL

138. Iafrate, Max - D - 6G, 10A; 16 points in 62 GP - Kitchener Rangers - OHL

139. Opperman, Grant - LW/RW - RW - 13G, 26A; 39 points in 21GP - Team Northwest - USHS

140. Rotolo, Michael - G - 22 GP, 2.15, .922 SV% - Green Bay Gamblers - USHL

141. Lipsbergs, Roberts - C - 14G, 14A; 28 points in 58 GP - HK Riga - MHL

142. Axman, Joakim - LW - 26G, 6A; 32 points in 22 GP - Valbo HC - SWE-2

143. Basso, Alex - D - 9G, 27A, 36 points in 44 GP - Sarnia Sting - OHL

144. Parisi, Thomas - D - 12G, 19A; 31 points in 37 GP - New Hampshire Jr. Monarchs - EJHL

145. Bischoff, Jake - D - 4G, 7A; 11 points in 21 GP - Team North - USHS

146. Fröberg, Linus - C - 17G, 35A; 52 points in 43 GP - Färjestad J20 - SuperElit

147. Vasilyev, Valeri - D - 1G, 1A; 2 points in 18 GP - MHC Spartak - MHL

148. Fox, Dane - C - 10G, 12A; 22 points in 28 GP - Erie Otters - OHL

149. Krutikov, Yevgeni - RW - 13G, 16A; 29 points in 53 GP - MHC Spartak - MHL

150. Karlsson, Erik - C/LW - 14G, 19A; 33 points in 47 GP - Frölunda J20 - SuperElit

Monday, June 18, 2012

Common Sense Prevails at the Draft

Drafting based on need or position is ridiculous. If any GM in the league is advocating for this strategy, they are wasting the efforts and money committed for over 8 months of scouting each year.

First off, in order to address team needs, there is a focus on short-term organizational weaknesses. Yet, the draft typically brings NHL calibre players to the big leagues in 2-5 years. So, if an NHL team were to draft based on need, they wouldn't actually fill the void that's lacking in the line-up. Therefore, they've used bias to settle for a player, when in fact they won't even solve the immediate issues on their hockey team.

Secondly, you must draft the most skilled player available because ANY other attribute can be readily found on the free agent market and by way of acquisition. So, to every hockey reporter in the country: why must you ask management teams if they are drafting the best player available? Even if they aren't, what answer will you get every time? It sure won't be this:

"This guy we ranked 10th is a world class player and our scouts spent 70 combined hours scouting him. However, he plays LW and we could use a C, so we went with the guy we ranked 17th."

In terms of prioritizing player characteristics, NHL calibre role players with character and work ethic can be easy to acquire in other ways. So it's not necessary to draft high "character" players. Plain and simple: you have to draft your own skill. Skill is not usually made available in the market, and these assets can be traded to address team needs down the road. Far as I can see, Matt Pelech, Krys Chucko and John Negrin had plenty of "character."

Outside of severe personality issues, you have to be willing to take risks on smaller players, or those with deficiencies that can be taught. If the development of these players takes longer, so be it, but you must ensure the players groomed in the system have the potential to become impact players in the big leagues.

In the later rounds, I'm all for taking "flyers" on players. Don't shy away from more risky picks with higher upside. Rather than picking sure-fire NHLers based on size and character, there should be a willingness to draft "project" players in the 3-7th rounds. These selections may have a reduced chance of making the NHL in the short term, but could become high impact players further down the road. Feaster's scouting staff took a step in this direction last summer, drafting 5'6 130 pound winger John Gaudreau in the 4th round. In his freshman season with Boston College, Gaudreau scored 44 pts in 44 games, one point less than teammate (and current NHLer) Chris Kreider, while helping lead Boston College to a championship.

Here's a Rinknet report I filed on Brendan Leipsic, a smaller draft eligible player that the Flames could target:

Scouting report: Brendan Leipsic (Centre, Portland Winterhawks)

5'9 175 lbs. Birthdate: 5-19-1994

NHL comparable (style): Kris Versteeg

Skating: A
Shooting: B+
Puck Control: A-
Physicality: B
Play away from puck: B
Hockey sense: B+

Overall rating: B+

GP: 65
Goals: 28
Assists: 30
Points: 58
PIM: 82
(+/-): +16

Comments: Leipsic's offensive skills are impressive. In particular, he's able to use his speed and surprising strength to drive the opposition crazy. Brendan's willingness to battle is a major asset, especially for a smaller player. He doesn't shy away from the physical side of the game. His hands in tight are impressive, as he can ready himself for a shot very quickly in traffic. He is crafty with the puck on his stick.

There are areas that could use some work. He has a tendency to "run around," throwing his body at everything and chasing the puck carrier. He would be better served to angle players off and use his stick more frequently, so he won't be caught out of position. Also, he's prone to long shifts, so his play drops off in the last 10-15 seconds before he heads to the bench.

Having said that, his weaknesses are easy to teach, and could simply turn around with age and maturity. The Winterhawks' loss of Bartschi and Rattie for next season will elevate Leipsic's ice-time and he will be relied on more heavily as a leader. This should be great for his development. Presumably, he's ranked lower because of his size. In Leipsic, I'd expect to be getting a future top-9 forward. If he can add some weight and take a step forward next season, his NHL upside could be even higher than that.

The skill is there, he just needs to work on the finer details of the game. If he's still available, I'd recommend the Flames take a hard look at Leipsic in the 3rd round.

Development

To me, the most important factor in any organization is player development. No matter what round a player is drafted in, he isn't going to become a quality NHL player without proper mentorship and development. I think this is becoming more and more apparent. The reality is, there are very subtle differences between teenagers on the draft floor. Whether he's selected at 14th overall or 114th overall, you won't have success with the player if he isn't brought along in the right environment. The best example of first class development is the Detroit Red Wings. Many of their stars are former late draft picks (5-7th rounds) and have become superstars in the league in recent years. Clearly, this is more about development than the kid's original drafting position.

The Red Wings gradual, patient approach puts confidence in young players. They are introduced to new challenges slowly, and Red Wing prospects are "over cooked" in the AHL before getting called up. This allows them to mature slowly and build offensive confidence as a pro, rather than being "thrown to the wolves." The Wings don't have a better chance than any other team of drafting a top player, but young players certainly benefit from developing in that system long-term.

Here's the Coles notes version:

1. Draft ONLY by skill
2. Take gambles in the later rounds
3. Put more emphasis on development. In turn, you'll become less dependent on projecting the careers of hockey players in their teens.

Should be a fun week!

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Third Round Rankings - by Michael Fabrig

61. Rensfeldt, Ludvig - LW/RW - 22G, 21A; 43 points in 58 GP - Sarnia Sting - OHL

62. LaLeggia, Joey - D - 11G , 27A; 38 points in 43 GP - Univ. of Denver - NCAA

63. MacEachern, Mackenzie - LW - 42G, 48A; 90 points in 29 GP - Brother Rice Warriors - USHS

64. Winther, Michael - C - 34G, 24A; 56 points in 71 GP - Prince Albert Raiders - WHL

65. Samuelsson, Henrik - C/RW - 7G, 16A; 23 points in 28 GP - Edmonton Oil Kings - WHL

66. Vainonen, Mikko - D - 7G, 11A; 18 points in 38 GP - HIFK U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga

67. Leipsic, Brendan - C - 28G, 30A; 58 points in 65GP - Portland Winter Hawks - WHL

68. Walker, Nathan - LW - 14G, 6A; 20 points in 14 GP - HC Vitkovice U20 - Czech U20

69. Fournier, Dillon - D - 9G, 29A; 38 points in 52 GP - Rouyn-Noranda Huskies - QMJHL

70. O'Regan, Danny - C - 3G, 2A; 5 points in 7 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL

71. Skjei, Brady - D - 3G, 9A; 12 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL

72. Lehtonen, Mikko - D - 8G, 19A; 27 points in 39GP - TPS U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga

73. Hart, Brian - RW - 29G, 32A; 61 points in 27 GP - Phillips Exeter Academy - USHS

74. Kulak, Brett - D - 9G, 15A; 24 points in 72 GP - Vancouver Giants - WHL

75. Barabanov, Alexander - LW - 18G, 21A; 39 points in 48 GP - SKA-1946 St. Petersburg - MHL

76. Gavrus, Artur - RW - 15G, 22A; 37 points in 45 GP - Owen Sound Attack - OHL

77. Zaar, Daniel - RW - 14G, 24A; 38 points in 44 GP - Rögle BK J20 - SuperElit

78. Filippov, Alexei - LW - 16G, 8A; 24 points in 45 GP - Belie Medvedi Chelyabinsk - MHL

79. Finn, Matt - D - 10G, 37A; 47 points in 61 GP - Guelph Storm - OHL

80. Beattie, Matt - RW - 39G, 34A; 73 points in 28 GP - Exeter High - USHS

81. Gordon, Coda - LW - 30G, 23A; 53 points in 66 GP - Swift Current Broncos - WHL

82. Calnan, Chris - RW - 28G, 27A; 55 points in 29 GP - Noble & Greenough School - USHS

83. Toninato, Dominic - C - 27G, 34A; 61 points in 25 GP - Duluth East High - USHS

84. McCabe, Jake - D - 3G, 9A; 12 points in 26 GP - Univ. of Wisconsin - NCAA

85. Kulmala, Rasmus - C - 1G, 1A; 2 points in 25 GP - TPS - SM-liiga

86. Sieloff, Patrik - D - 0G, 2A; 2 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL

87. Tikkinen, Niklas - D - 8G, 15A; 23 points in 39 GP - Blues U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga

88. Zulinick, Morgan - C - 24G, 42A; 66 points in 57 GP - Salmon Arm Silverbacks - BCHL

89. Larsson, Fredric - D - 1G, 3A; 4 points in 14 GP - Brynäs J20 - SuperElit

90. Matteau, Stefan - LW - 6G, 4A; 10 points in 18 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL

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Sunday, June 17, 2012

Trade them all, but not without a plan

(@Takes2toTanguay is a new contributor at Dome Ice Advantage. Have a read and discuss with him on Twitter. Also, he lives in DC, so be sure to ask him what the hell draws him to the Calgary Flames when you get a chance)

It's beginning to look like Jay Bouwmeester will be dealt. Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington could be possible destinations, as you'd expect they are seeking a top pairing defender. Would I trade him? Absolutely not. Trading Jay Bouwmeester would hurt this team and would create an insurmountable hole on the blueline. If the speculation is true, Feaster must know something we don't. If he can somehow get 2 top pairing defensemen in Calgary this summer, then by all means trade Bouwmeester. Unloading Jay at the draft would indicate that Feaster will be throwing some serious, serious dough at Parise and/or Suter - a bad gamble without a back-up plan.

Bouwmeester is always under some sort of scrutiny for his contract and lack of point production. People need to realize that he was utilized for his defensive skills rather than his offensive skills. I really want to see what he can do under a different coach and system. If the Flames manage to trade him, they better have a plan or there will be trouble. You cannot trade from weakness, and defense is serious weakness on this squad. I find it hard to believe that the Flames would get fair value in a trade for Bouwmeester. He adds value to the team, especially in a “win now” mode. If they do trade him, I’d hope Feaster can get a top 6 centre or a cheaper top pairing defender. The team is not in a position to trade their best defender for picks/mid-level prospects. So the question remains: do other teams GMs value Bouwmeester enough to deal a top-6 centre or a cheaper top pairing defender?

Henrik Karlsson is another guy that could and should be dealt. With Irving showing us a glimpse of his potential and Karri Ramo tearing it up in the KHL, Henrik Karlsson has ran his course here and for obvious reasons. He was a decent experiment, but it just never worked out for him. Not a goaltender with zero potential, he just needs an opportunity elsewhere.

Anton Babchuk would help any team’s power play and could help solidify a team who is looking for a 5/6 defenseman that can contribute offensively, but that's about it. If the Flames have any plans to upgrade their power play presence on the blue-line (and they should), I'd expect Babchuk is on his way out of town.

Matt Stajan, I would keep. I never thought I would say that, but the Flames continue to lack depth at his position. It’s clear he never truly found himself in this city. We’ve seen times where he looks like a 50+ point player and times where he looks like he's never played an NHL game before. Like a lot of players, I feel Brent Sutter didn’t utilize him the way he should have. Under a different system/coaching style, he could be effective. You'd expect the Flames are about to get even thinner up the middle this summer (especially if they aren't retaining Jokinen). This, along with a free agency pool looking rather shallow up the middle, trading away a potential #2 centreman with limited trade value might be an issue. If a team gives Feaster an offer for Stajan that makes sense, great, but you'd better be sure you have other options in the system before making that deal.

To me, there is no doubt that the Flames could ice the exact same line up and have different results under a new coaching scheme (St. Louis, LA as examples). However, you get the sense Feaster wants new faces on this team. Three years with the same line up and all we've seen is "just missed” excuses. It's not good enough. Jay Feaster and upper management would be the first to tell you it’s not good enough.

For one, I'm against a full rebuild. A gradual re-tool is simply more realistic. Trading away core guys might be the biggest mistake a team could make. It could pay off long-term, but Jarome Iginla and Miikka Kiprusoff hold more value to this squad than a blue chip prospect and a 1st rounder - especially for a team that’s in "win now” mode. It’s certainly possible that the Flames could trade Iginla and remain competitive, but trading away the face of the franchise would not make sense from a business perspective, let alone a hockey perspective. If Jarome confronts management, that’s a different story. Until that point, he won't be going anywhere.

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Saturday, June 16, 2012

Second Round Rankings - by Michael Fabrig

31. Di Giuseppe, Phil - C/LW - 11G , 15A; 26 points in 40 GP - Univ. of Michigan - NCAA


32. Lundberg, Emil - LW - 6G, 12A; 18 points in 51 GP - Södertälje - Allsvenskan


33. Dansk, Oskar - G - 28 GP, 2.82, .910 SV% - Brynäs J20 - SuperElit


34. Vatrano, Frankie - LW/C - 7G, 11A; 18 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL


35. Gaunce, Brendan - C - 28G, 40A; 68 points in 68 GP - Belleville Bulls - OHL


36. Slepyshev, Anton - LW - 4G, 3A; 7 points in 39 GP - Metallurg Novokuznetsk - KHL


37. Severson, Damon - D - 7G, 30A; 37 points in 56 GP - Kelowna Rockets - WHL


38. Baillargeon, Robbie - C - 14G, 34A; 48 points in 54 GP - Indiana Ice - USHL


39. Thrower, Dalton - D - 18G, 36A; 54 points in 66 GP - Saskatoon Blades - WHL


40. Kosmachuk, Scott - RW - 30G, 29A; 59 points in 67GP - Guelph Storm - OHL


41. Prokhorkin, Nikolai - LW - 1G, 1A; 2 points in 15 GP - CSKA Moskva - KHL


42. Djuse, Emil - D - 8G, 31A; 39 points in 35 GP - Östersunds IK - SWE-1


43. Shore, Devin - C - 29G, 29A; 58 points in 41 GP - Whitby Fury - OJHL


44. Spelling, Thomas - RW - 21G, 16A; 37 points in 33 GP - Herning - Denmark


45. Collberg, Sebastian - RW - 9G, 8A; 17 points in 21 GP - Frölunda J20 - SuperElit


46. Vesey, Jimmy - C - 48G, 43A; 91 points in 45 GP - South Shore Kings - EJHL


47. Cangelosi, Austin - C - 29G, 30A; 59 points in 53 GP - Youngstown Phantoms - USHL


48. Vikstrand, Mikael - D - 2G, 1A; 3 points in 47 GP - Mora - Allsvenskan


49. Gillies, Jon - G - 53 GP, 2.77, .915 SV% - Indiana Ice - USHL


50. Andersson, Calle - D - 12G, 24A; 36 points in 49 GP - Färjestad J20 - SuperElit


51. Ebert, Nick - D - 6G, 33A; 39 points in 66 GP - Windsor Spitfires - OHL


52. Bertschy, Christoph - C - 8G, 8A; 16 points in 32 GP - Bern - NLA


53. Khaira, Jujhar - LW - 29G, 50A; 79 points in 54 GP - Prince George Spruce Kings - BCHL


54. Zlobin, Anton - RW - 40G, 36A; 76 points in 66 GP - Shawinigan Cataractes - QMJHL


55. Zharkov, Daniil - LW - 23G, 13A; 36 points in 50 GP - Belleville Bulls - OHL


56. Törnkvist, Tobias - RW - 16G, 20A; 36 points in 48 GP - Rögle BK J20 - SuperElit


57. Sutter, Lukas - C - 28G, 31A; 59 points in 70 GP - Saskatoon Blades - WHL


58. Hinostroza, Vince - C - 20G, 24A; 44 points in 55 GP - Waterloo Black Hawks - USHL


59. Laughton, Scott - C - 21G, 32A; 53 points in 64 GP - Oshawa Generals - OHL


60. Bystrom, Ludvig - D - 0G, 1A; 1 point in 20 GP - MODO - Eliteserin


Follow Michael Fabrig on Twitter @gotitotti, follow posts @WiswellMRU

Thursday, June 14, 2012

First Round Rankings - by Michael Fabrig


1. Grigorenko, Mikhail - C/RW - 40G, 45A; 85 points in 59 GP - Quebec Remparts - QMJHL 

2. Yakupov, Nail - RW - 31G, 38A; 69 points in 42 GP - Sarnia Sting - OHL  

3. Galchenyuk, Alex - C - 31G, 52A; 83 points in 68 GP ('10-11) - Sarnia Sting - OHL 

4. Forsberg, Filip - LW - 8G, 9A; 17 points in 43 GP - Leksand - Allsvenskan

5. Lindholm, Hampus - D - 1G, 3A; 4 points in 20 GP - Rogle - Elitserien 

6. Teräväinen, Teuvo - RW - 11G, 7A; 18 points in 40 GP - Jokerit - SM-liiga  

7. Rielly, Morgan - D - 3G, 15A; 18 points in 18 GP - Moose Jaw Warriors - WHL

8. Hertl, Tomas - C - 12G, 13A; 25 points in 38 GP - HC Slavia Praha - Czech  

9. Girgensons, Zemgus - C/RW - 24G, 31A; 55 points in 49 GP -  Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL  

10. Matheson, Michael - D - 11G, 16A; 27 points in 53 GP - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL 

11. Åberg, Pontus - LW/RW - 8G, 7A; 15 points in 47 GP - Djurgården - Elitserien 

12. Määttä, Olli - D - 5G, 27A; 32 points in 58 GP - London Knights - OHL 

13. Pouliot, Derrick - D - 11G, 48A; 59 points in 72 GP - Portland Winter Hawks - WHL 

14. Murray, Ryan - D - 9G, 22A; 31 points in 46 GP - Everett Silvertips - WHL   

15. Dumba, Matthew - D - 20G, 37A; 57 Points in 69 GP - Red Deer Rebels - WHL

16. Trouba, Jacob - D - 4G, 14A; 18 points in 22 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL

17. Reinhart, Griffin - D - 12G, 24A; 36 points in 58 GP - Edmonton Oil Kings - WHL  

18. Kerdiles, Nicolas - C - 4G, 9A; 13 points in 18GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL 

19. Bozon, Timothé - LW - 36G, 35A; 71 points in 71 GP - Kamloops Blazers - WHL 

20. Vasilevski, Andrei - G - 27 GP, 2.23, .931 SV% - Tolpar Ufa - MHL

21. Koekkoek, Slater - D - 5G, 13A; 18 points in 26 GP - Peterborough Petes - OHL

22. Ceci, Cody - D - 17G, 43A; 60 points in 63 GP - Ottawa 67's - OHL 

23. Frk, Martin - RW - 16G, 13A; 29 points in 34GP - Halifax Mooseheads - QMJHL

24. Pokka, Ville - D - 0G, 3A; 3 points in 35 GP - Kärpät - SM-liiga 

25. Roy, Kevin - LW - 50G, 54A; 104 points in 59 GP - Lincoln Stars - USHL 

26. Lindell, Esa - D - 21G, 30A; 51 points in 48 GP - Jokerit U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga

27. Jankowski, Mark - C - 53G , 40A; 93 points in 57 GP - Stanstead College - Quebec Prep 

28. Subban, Malcolm - G - 39 GP, 2.50, .923 SV% - Belleville Bulls - OHL

29. Faksa, Radek - C - 29G, 38A; 67 points in 62 GP - Kitchener Rangers - OHL   

30. Schmaltz, Jordan - D - 7G, 28A; 35 points in 46 GP - Green Bay Gamblers - USHL


Thanks again to Michael for his insight. We will post his entire rankings (Rounds 2-7) on the site periodically as we approach the Draft. Follow Michael at @gotitotti for more discussion.

Follow posts on twitter @WiswellMRU

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Flames First Round Must-Haves by Michael Fabrig

Michael Fabrig (@gotitotti) was nice enough to contribute a list of his top first round prospects in the Flames' wheelhouse. Michael has a relationship with NHL scouts and does a ton of analysis on prospects. His insight on future NHLers is impressive. Have a read!


Choice 1: Tomas Hertl - C - 6'2" - HC Slavia Praha - Czech


Comparable: Derek Stepan


Reason: The Flames are lacking a high-end Centre; every team in the league wishes for a player like Hertl -- blessed size, skill, and most importantly -- acumen. Hertl projects to be a top-6 forward with abilities to be versatile on the wing. His Czech team did better than expected at the WJHC -- Hertl was the only draft-eligible to named the top-3 on his team. Hertl is a very smart player with high-end skills. I think Hertl's progression will continue, if it does, by next-year around, he'll be deemed a steal at 14.


Choice 2: Zemgus Girgensons - C - 6'2" - C - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL


Comparable: Ryan Kesler


Reason:  As a big factor why Brian Burke was convinced in Ryan Kesler's leadership, and ability to score and have a rugged presence, Girgensons seems so convincing that he plans to use to the same game-plan to get to the big leagues. Girgensons has a play-making side that is rather 'underrated'. The scouts that I've talked to are convinced that after a year at Vermont, he'll be more than ready to play in the NHL. After viewing his playoff performance, I was convinced that he could have scored more goals if it wasn't for the broken jaw. Girgensons makes a whole lot of sense as a Calgary Flame, he's big and skilled, and plays C! The question is -- will he be good enough to be a top-6? That question is why I had Hertl over Girgensons. I wouldn't be surprised if Girgensons, someday, becomes a captain somewhere in the NHL. Roberts Lipsbergs and Nikita Jevpalovs are 2 other Latvians that are starting to put Latvian hockey on the board. Great to see Latvian hockey getting bigger and better.


Choice 3: Andrei Vasilevski - G - 6'3" - Tolpar UFA - MHL. 


Comparable: Tuukka Rask


Reason: Simply put, the Flames are, inevitably, going to have to start thinking and finding a way to have a future goalie after Kipper. Leland Irving and Karri Ramo look like good corner-stones to bank-on, but, at this point, they're not proven that they are the guys of the future. Vasilevski is blessed technically; his in-tangibles make it very convincing to see that he will be in the NHL one day. The Russian-factor is something that might turn-away some teams from drafting him; I haven't seen a Russian Goaltender look this promising in a long time. 


Choice 4: Michael Matheson - D - 6'2" - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL


Comparable - John Carlson


Reason: Michael Matheson has the size and shot to eventually be a great top-4 d-man in the NHL. Consistency has been the biggest knack that scouts have on Matheson. His shot, ability to jump in the play, and silky-smooth skating ability are easy enough to take a stab at the former Lac Saint-Louis Lions scoring star. Matheson was dominant in the USHL playoffs -- he had 4 goals in 5 games. His pedigree showcases a player that rises to the occasion come playoff-time. Playing with Boston College next year will help his game mature; his defensive work with get a great challenge, the eventuality, it will let him mature there. His offensive abilities are very profound; I think Matheson will take these intangibles with him when eventually comes to the NHL -- at that point, teams will be salivating. You picture Matheson, Giordano, T.J. Brodie -- a great core that will make it hard for teams to deal with.


Choice 5: Pontus Aberg - RW - 5'11" - Djurgarden - Elitserien


Comparable: Mathias Tedenby


Reason: a scoring winger is something that adds huge value to a team. Tedenby is faster and has more skill -- Aberg has a better ability to shoot the puck like a sniper. With a majority of Aberg's points coming in the first-half of the season, its scary to think what his point totals would have been if it wasn't for the shoulder injury. We've seen what that has done to guys like Hall and Kesler in the big leagues, and what it had done to their statistics. Aberg is a bit of a risky pick -- but with the organization very shallow with Right Winger's, taking a guy like Aberg could fast-track the player to not only come in the league, but, make a positive contribution. 


Choice 6: Derrick Pouliot - D - 5'11" - Portland Winter Hawks - WHL


Comparable: Erik Karlsson


Reason: No doubt, Derrick Pouliot is a game-breaker. His offensive skills are at the same level as Morgan Rielly. Watching the Top Prospects game, for me, the guy that really impressed me was Pouliot. The defensive side to his game is very questionable at times. At the end of the day, his position is a defense -- a team is drafting with the expectation for him to play that position. I think his offense, skating ability, and the ability to join the rush at the right times make him a catch. I think Pouliot has more transferable skills than Murray and Dumba -- hence, why I have him higher. He has some natural abilities that will separate himself from other competitors for a roster spot. I personally think that Dumba's Phanuef-life approach to the game will quickly wash away -- he's 5'11". Ryan Murray, like Jay Boumeester, has tremendous skating and longevity to probably be an Iron-Man in the NHL, but I don't see him having a wow-factor. It's like guys like Victor Hedman, Braydon Coburn, and Luke Schenn -- guys that when looking back, you might have not taken them so high if you knew how they'd translate in the NHL.


Thanks again to Michael for his contributions. He will have his full rankings (rounds 1-7!) up on the site soon. You can follow him on twitter @gotitotti.


Follow posts on twitter @WiswellMRU