ROUND 4 (91-120)
91. Korpisalo, Joonas - G - 28 GP, 2.04, .920 SV% - Jokerit U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga
92. Caggiula, Drake - C - 10G, 24A; 34 points in 25 GP - Stouffville Spirit - OJHL
93. Hudon, Charles - LW/C - 25G, 41A; 66 points in 59 GP - Chicoutimi Saguenéens - QMJHL
94. Bohman, Marcus - D - 10G, 20A; 30 points in 40 GP - MODO J20 - SuperElit
95. Ikonen, Henri - C - 17G, 28A; 45 points in 37 GP - KalPa U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga
96. Locke, Eric - C - 13G, 14A; 27 points in 31 GP - Saginaw Spirit - OHL
97. Nieves, Cristoval - C/LW - 2G, 8A; 10 points in 13 GP - Indiana Ice - USHL
98. Smith, Gemel - C - 21G, 39A; 60 points in 68 GP - Owen Sound Attack - OHL
99. Athanasiou, Andreas - C - 22G, 15A; 37 points in 63 GP - London Knights - OHL
100. Graham, Jesse - D - 4G, 39A; 43 points in 67 GP - Niagara IceDogs - OHL
101. Gusev, Nikita - LW - 30G, 40A; 76 points in 34 GP - CSKA-Krasnaja Armija Moskva - MHL
102. Bussières, Raphaël - LW - 21G, 23A; 44 points in 56 GP - Baie-Comeau Drakkar - QMJHL
103. Shore, Quentin - C - 8G, 2A; 10 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
104. Stolarz, Anthony - G - 50 GP, 2.84, .920 SV% - Corpus Christi IceRays - NAHL
105. Griffith, Seth - C - 45G, 40A; 85 points in 68 GP - London Knights - OHL
106. Franson, Cain - C - 27G, 31A; 58 points in 70 GP - Vancouver Giants - WHL
107. Sandberg, Filip - C 14G, 20A; 34 points in 43 GP - HV71 J20 - SuperElit
108. Nilsson, Ludvig - C/LW - 16G, 16A; 32 points in 47 GP - Timrå J20 - SuperElit
109. Cooper, Brian - D - 6G, 18A; 24 points in 55 GP - Fargo Force - USHL
110. Blujus, Dylan - D - 7G, 27A; 34 points in 66 GP - Brampton Battalion - OHL
111. Stepan, Zach - C - 22G, 43A; 65 points in 50 GP - Shattuck St. Mary's Midget Prep - USHS
112. Pearson, Tanner - 37G, 54A; 91 points in 60 GP - Barrie Colts - OHL
113. Holland, Rhett - D - 3G, 7A; 10 points in 47 GP - Okotoks Oilers - AJHL
114. Kilnar, Ales - RW - 28G, 23A; 51 points in 39 GP - HC Vitkovice U20 - Czech U20
115. Brown, Travis - D - 7G, 24A; 31 points in 66 GP - Moose Jaw Warriors - WHL
116. Blugers, Teodors - C - 24G, 64A; 88 points in 51GP - Shattuck St. Mary's Midget Prep - USHS
117. Lauridsen, Kristoffer - C - 21G, 12A; 33 points in 25 GP - Herning II - Denmark2
118. Michaelson, A.J. - C - 6G, 14A; 20 points in 53 GP - Waterloo Black Hawks - USHL
119. Ullberg, Richard - G - 23 GP, 2.36, .901 SV% - SaiPa - SM-liiga
120. Djoos, Christian - D - 3G, 21A; 24 points in 40 GP - Brynäs J20 - SuperElit
ROUND 5 (121-150)
121. Osnovin, Vyacheslav - C - 7G, 18A; 25 points in 45 GP - Belie Medvedi Chelyabinsk - MHL
122. Andrighetto, Sven - LW/RW - 36G, 38A; 74 points in 62 GP - Rouyn-Noranda Huskies - QMJHL
123. Czarnik, Austin - C - 10G, 27A; 37 points in 40 GP - Miami Uni. (OH) - NCAA
124. Görtz, Max - RW - 2G, 3A; 5 points in 18 GP - Färjestad - Elitserien
125. Jevpalovs, Nikita - RW - 8G, 13A; 21 points in 58 GP - HK Riga - MHL
126. Duane, Kevin - 29G, 24A; 53 points in 29 GP - Brunswick Prep - USHS
127. Wilson, Tom - RW - 9G, 18A; 27 points in 49 GP - Plymouth Whalers - OHL
128. Barber, Riley - RW/C - 5G, 6A; 11 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
129. Nemec, Eric - LW - 17G, 17A; 34 points in 34 GP - HC Vitkovice U20 - Czech U20
130. Kukan, Dean - D - 5G, 16A; 21 points in 42 GP - Luleå J20 - SuperElit
131. Besse, Grant - LW - 40G, 35A; 75 points in 25 GP - Benilde-St. Margaret's High - USHS
132. Plutnar, Michal - D - 4G, 9A; 13 points in 62 GP - Tri-City Americans - WHL
133. Rupert, Matt - 12G, 23A; 35 points in 48 GP - London Knights - OHL
134. Walters, Nick - D - 6G, 12A; 18 points in 62 GP - Everett Silvertips - WHL
135. Mermis, Dakota - 5G, 22A; 27 points in 60 GP - Green Bay Gamblers - USHL
136. Beran, Matej - C - 22G, 39A; 61 points in 68 GP - Prince Edward Island Rocket - QMJHL
137. Stephenson, Chandler - C - 22G, 20A; 42 points in 55 GP - Regina Pats - WHL
138. Iafrate, Max - D - 6G, 10A; 16 points in 62 GP - Kitchener Rangers - OHL
139. Opperman, Grant - LW/RW - RW - 13G, 26A; 39 points in 21GP - Team Northwest - USHS
140. Rotolo, Michael - G - 22 GP, 2.15, .922 SV% - Green Bay Gamblers - USHL
141. Lipsbergs, Roberts - C - 14G, 14A; 28 points in 58 GP - HK Riga - MHL
142. Axman, Joakim - LW - 26G, 6A; 32 points in 22 GP - Valbo HC - SWE-2
143. Basso, Alex - D - 9G, 27A, 36 points in 44 GP - Sarnia Sting - OHL
144. Parisi, Thomas - D - 12G, 19A; 31 points in 37 GP - New Hampshire Jr. Monarchs - EJHL
145. Bischoff, Jake - D - 4G, 7A; 11 points in 21 GP - Team North - USHS
146. Fröberg, Linus - C - 17G, 35A; 52 points in 43 GP - Färjestad J20 - SuperElit
147. Vasilyev, Valeri - D - 1G, 1A; 2 points in 18 GP - MHC Spartak - MHL
148. Fox, Dane - C - 10G, 12A; 22 points in 28 GP - Erie Otters - OHL
149. Krutikov, Yevgeni - RW - 13G, 16A; 29 points in 53 GP - MHC Spartak - MHL
150. Karlsson, Erik - C/LW - 14G, 19A; 33 points in 47 GP - Frölunda J20 - SuperElit
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
Monday, June 18, 2012
Common Sense Prevails at the Draft
Drafting based on need or position is ridiculous. If any GM in the league is advocating for this strategy, they are wasting the efforts and money committed for over 8 months of scouting each year.
First off, in order to address team needs, there is a focus on short-term organizational weaknesses. Yet, the draft typically brings NHL calibre players to the big leagues in 2-5 years. So, if an NHL team were to draft based on need, they wouldn't actually fill the void that's lacking in the line-up. Therefore, they've used bias to settle for a player, when in fact they won't even solve the immediate issues on their hockey team.
Secondly, you must draft the most skilled player available because ANY other attribute can be readily found on the free agent market and by way of acquisition. So, to every hockey reporter in the country: why must you ask management teams if they are drafting the best player available? Even if they aren't, what answer will you get every time? It sure won't be this:
"This guy we ranked 10th is a world class player and our scouts spent 70 combined hours scouting him. However, he plays LW and we could use a C, so we went with the guy we ranked 17th."
In terms of prioritizing player characteristics, NHL calibre role players with character and work ethic can be easy to acquire in other ways. So it's not necessary to draft high "character" players. Plain and simple: you have to draft your own skill. Skill is not usually made available in the market, and these assets can be traded to address team needs down the road. Far as I can see, Matt Pelech, Krys Chucko and John Negrin had plenty of "character."
Outside of severe personality issues, you have to be willing to take risks on smaller players, or those with deficiencies that can be taught. If the development of these players takes longer, so be it, but you must ensure the players groomed in the system have the potential to become impact players in the big leagues.
In the later rounds, I'm all for taking "flyers" on players. Don't shy away from more risky picks with higher upside. Rather than picking sure-fire NHLers based on size and character, there should be a willingness to draft "project" players in the 3-7th rounds. These selections may have a reduced chance of making the NHL in the short term, but could become high impact players further down the road. Feaster's scouting staff took a step in this direction last summer, drafting 5'6 130 pound winger John Gaudreau in the 4th round. In his freshman season with Boston College, Gaudreau scored 44 pts in 44 games, one point less than teammate (and current NHLer) Chris Kreider, while helping lead Boston College to a championship.
Here's a Rinknet report I filed on Brendan Leipsic, a smaller draft eligible player that the Flames could target:
Scouting report: Brendan Leipsic (Centre, Portland Winterhawks)
5'9 175 lbs. Birthdate: 5-19-1994
NHL comparable (style): Kris Versteeg
Skating: A
Shooting: B+
Puck Control: A-
Physicality: B
Play away from puck: B
Hockey sense: B+
Overall rating: B+
GP: 65
Goals: 28
Assists: 30
Points: 58
PIM: 82
(+/-): +16
Comments: Leipsic's offensive skills are impressive. In particular, he's able to use his speed and surprising strength to drive the opposition crazy. Brendan's willingness to battle is a major asset, especially for a smaller player. He doesn't shy away from the physical side of the game. His hands in tight are impressive, as he can ready himself for a shot very quickly in traffic. He is crafty with the puck on his stick.
There are areas that could use some work. He has a tendency to "run around," throwing his body at everything and chasing the puck carrier. He would be better served to angle players off and use his stick more frequently, so he won't be caught out of position. Also, he's prone to long shifts, so his play drops off in the last 10-15 seconds before he heads to the bench.
Having said that, his weaknesses are easy to teach, and could simply turn around with age and maturity. The Winterhawks' loss of Bartschi and Rattie for next season will elevate Leipsic's ice-time and he will be relied on more heavily as a leader. This should be great for his development. Presumably, he's ranked lower because of his size. In Leipsic, I'd expect to be getting a future top-9 forward. If he can add some weight and take a step forward next season, his NHL upside could be even higher than that.
The skill is there, he just needs to work on the finer details of the game. If he's still available, I'd recommend the Flames take a hard look at Leipsic in the 3rd round.
Development
To me, the most important factor in any organization is player development. No matter what round a player is drafted in, he isn't going to become a quality NHL player without proper mentorship and development. I think this is becoming more and more apparent. The reality is, there are very subtle differences between teenagers on the draft floor. Whether he's selected at 14th overall or 114th overall, you won't have success with the player if he isn't brought along in the right environment. The best example of first class development is the Detroit Red Wings. Many of their stars are former late draft picks (5-7th rounds) and have become superstars in the league in recent years. Clearly, this is more about development than the kid's original drafting position.
The Red Wings gradual, patient approach puts confidence in young players. They are introduced to new challenges slowly, and Red Wing prospects are "over cooked" in the AHL before getting called up. This allows them to mature slowly and build offensive confidence as a pro, rather than being "thrown to the wolves." The Wings don't have a better chance than any other team of drafting a top player, but young players certainly benefit from developing in that system long-term.
Here's the Coles notes version:
1. Draft ONLY by skill
2. Take gambles in the later rounds
3. Put more emphasis on development. In turn, you'll become less dependent on projecting the careers of hockey players in their teens.
Should be a fun week!
Follow posts on twitter @WiswellMRU
First off, in order to address team needs, there is a focus on short-term organizational weaknesses. Yet, the draft typically brings NHL calibre players to the big leagues in 2-5 years. So, if an NHL team were to draft based on need, they wouldn't actually fill the void that's lacking in the line-up. Therefore, they've used bias to settle for a player, when in fact they won't even solve the immediate issues on their hockey team.
Secondly, you must draft the most skilled player available because ANY other attribute can be readily found on the free agent market and by way of acquisition. So, to every hockey reporter in the country: why must you ask management teams if they are drafting the best player available? Even if they aren't, what answer will you get every time? It sure won't be this:
"This guy we ranked 10th is a world class player and our scouts spent 70 combined hours scouting him. However, he plays LW and we could use a C, so we went with the guy we ranked 17th."
In terms of prioritizing player characteristics, NHL calibre role players with character and work ethic can be easy to acquire in other ways. So it's not necessary to draft high "character" players. Plain and simple: you have to draft your own skill. Skill is not usually made available in the market, and these assets can be traded to address team needs down the road. Far as I can see, Matt Pelech, Krys Chucko and John Negrin had plenty of "character."
Outside of severe personality issues, you have to be willing to take risks on smaller players, or those with deficiencies that can be taught. If the development of these players takes longer, so be it, but you must ensure the players groomed in the system have the potential to become impact players in the big leagues.
In the later rounds, I'm all for taking "flyers" on players. Don't shy away from more risky picks with higher upside. Rather than picking sure-fire NHLers based on size and character, there should be a willingness to draft "project" players in the 3-7th rounds. These selections may have a reduced chance of making the NHL in the short term, but could become high impact players further down the road. Feaster's scouting staff took a step in this direction last summer, drafting 5'6 130 pound winger John Gaudreau in the 4th round. In his freshman season with Boston College, Gaudreau scored 44 pts in 44 games, one point less than teammate (and current NHLer) Chris Kreider, while helping lead Boston College to a championship.
Here's a Rinknet report I filed on Brendan Leipsic, a smaller draft eligible player that the Flames could target:
Scouting report: Brendan Leipsic (Centre, Portland Winterhawks)
5'9 175 lbs. Birthdate: 5-19-1994
NHL comparable (style): Kris Versteeg
Skating: A
Shooting: B+
Puck Control: A-
Physicality: B
Play away from puck: B
Hockey sense: B+
Overall rating: B+
GP: 65
Goals: 28
Assists: 30
Points: 58
PIM: 82
(+/-): +16
Comments: Leipsic's offensive skills are impressive. In particular, he's able to use his speed and surprising strength to drive the opposition crazy. Brendan's willingness to battle is a major asset, especially for a smaller player. He doesn't shy away from the physical side of the game. His hands in tight are impressive, as he can ready himself for a shot very quickly in traffic. He is crafty with the puck on his stick.
There are areas that could use some work. He has a tendency to "run around," throwing his body at everything and chasing the puck carrier. He would be better served to angle players off and use his stick more frequently, so he won't be caught out of position. Also, he's prone to long shifts, so his play drops off in the last 10-15 seconds before he heads to the bench.
Having said that, his weaknesses are easy to teach, and could simply turn around with age and maturity. The Winterhawks' loss of Bartschi and Rattie for next season will elevate Leipsic's ice-time and he will be relied on more heavily as a leader. This should be great for his development. Presumably, he's ranked lower because of his size. In Leipsic, I'd expect to be getting a future top-9 forward. If he can add some weight and take a step forward next season, his NHL upside could be even higher than that.
The skill is there, he just needs to work on the finer details of the game. If he's still available, I'd recommend the Flames take a hard look at Leipsic in the 3rd round.
Development
To me, the most important factor in any organization is player development. No matter what round a player is drafted in, he isn't going to become a quality NHL player without proper mentorship and development. I think this is becoming more and more apparent. The reality is, there are very subtle differences between teenagers on the draft floor. Whether he's selected at 14th overall or 114th overall, you won't have success with the player if he isn't brought along in the right environment. The best example of first class development is the Detroit Red Wings. Many of their stars are former late draft picks (5-7th rounds) and have become superstars in the league in recent years. Clearly, this is more about development than the kid's original drafting position.
The Red Wings gradual, patient approach puts confidence in young players. They are introduced to new challenges slowly, and Red Wing prospects are "over cooked" in the AHL before getting called up. This allows them to mature slowly and build offensive confidence as a pro, rather than being "thrown to the wolves." The Wings don't have a better chance than any other team of drafting a top player, but young players certainly benefit from developing in that system long-term.
Here's the Coles notes version:
1. Draft ONLY by skill
2. Take gambles in the later rounds
3. Put more emphasis on development. In turn, you'll become less dependent on projecting the careers of hockey players in their teens.
Should be a fun week!
Follow posts on twitter @WiswellMRU
Third Round Rankings - by Michael Fabrig
61. Rensfeldt, Ludvig - LW/RW - 22G, 21A; 43 points in 58 GP - Sarnia Sting - OHL
62. LaLeggia, Joey - D - 11G , 27A; 38 points in 43 GP - Univ. of Denver - NCAA
63. MacEachern, Mackenzie - LW - 42G, 48A; 90 points in 29 GP - Brother Rice Warriors - USHS
64. Winther, Michael - C - 34G, 24A; 56 points in 71 GP - Prince Albert Raiders - WHL
65. Samuelsson, Henrik - C/RW - 7G, 16A; 23 points in 28 GP - Edmonton Oil Kings - WHL
66. Vainonen, Mikko - D - 7G, 11A; 18 points in 38 GP - HIFK U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga
67. Leipsic, Brendan - C - 28G, 30A; 58 points in 65GP - Portland Winter Hawks - WHL
68. Walker, Nathan - LW - 14G, 6A; 20 points in 14 GP - HC Vitkovice U20 - Czech U20
69. Fournier, Dillon - D - 9G, 29A; 38 points in 52 GP - Rouyn-Noranda Huskies - QMJHL
70. O'Regan, Danny - C - 3G, 2A; 5 points in 7 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
71. Skjei, Brady - D - 3G, 9A; 12 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
72. Lehtonen, Mikko - D - 8G, 19A; 27 points in 39GP - TPS U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga
73. Hart, Brian - RW - 29G, 32A; 61 points in 27 GP - Phillips Exeter Academy - USHS
74. Kulak, Brett - D - 9G, 15A; 24 points in 72 GP - Vancouver Giants - WHL
75. Barabanov, Alexander - LW - 18G, 21A; 39 points in 48 GP - SKA-1946 St. Petersburg - MHL
76. Gavrus, Artur - RW - 15G, 22A; 37 points in 45 GP - Owen Sound Attack - OHL
77. Zaar, Daniel - RW - 14G, 24A; 38 points in 44 GP - Rögle BK J20 - SuperElit
78. Filippov, Alexei - LW - 16G, 8A; 24 points in 45 GP - Belie Medvedi Chelyabinsk - MHL
79. Finn, Matt - D - 10G, 37A; 47 points in 61 GP - Guelph Storm - OHL
80. Beattie, Matt - RW - 39G, 34A; 73 points in 28 GP - Exeter High - USHS
81. Gordon, Coda - LW - 30G, 23A; 53 points in 66 GP - Swift Current Broncos - WHL
82. Calnan, Chris - RW - 28G, 27A; 55 points in 29 GP - Noble & Greenough School - USHS
83. Toninato, Dominic - C - 27G, 34A; 61 points in 25 GP - Duluth East High - USHS
84. McCabe, Jake - D - 3G, 9A; 12 points in 26 GP - Univ. of Wisconsin - NCAA
85. Kulmala, Rasmus - C - 1G, 1A; 2 points in 25 GP - TPS - SM-liiga
86. Sieloff, Patrik - D - 0G, 2A; 2 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
87. Tikkinen, Niklas - D - 8G, 15A; 23 points in 39 GP - Blues U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga
88. Zulinick, Morgan - C - 24G, 42A; 66 points in 57 GP - Salmon Arm Silverbacks - BCHL
89. Larsson, Fredric - D - 1G, 3A; 4 points in 14 GP - Brynäs J20 - SuperElit
90. Matteau, Stefan - LW - 6G, 4A; 10 points in 18 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
Follow Michael on twitter @gotitotti
Follow posts @WiswellMRU
62. LaLeggia, Joey - D - 11G , 27A; 38 points in 43 GP - Univ. of Denver - NCAA
63. MacEachern, Mackenzie - LW - 42G, 48A; 90 points in 29 GP - Brother Rice Warriors - USHS
64. Winther, Michael - C - 34G, 24A; 56 points in 71 GP - Prince Albert Raiders - WHL
65. Samuelsson, Henrik - C/RW - 7G, 16A; 23 points in 28 GP - Edmonton Oil Kings - WHL
66. Vainonen, Mikko - D - 7G, 11A; 18 points in 38 GP - HIFK U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga
67. Leipsic, Brendan - C - 28G, 30A; 58 points in 65GP - Portland Winter Hawks - WHL
68. Walker, Nathan - LW - 14G, 6A; 20 points in 14 GP - HC Vitkovice U20 - Czech U20
69. Fournier, Dillon - D - 9G, 29A; 38 points in 52 GP - Rouyn-Noranda Huskies - QMJHL
70. O'Regan, Danny - C - 3G, 2A; 5 points in 7 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
71. Skjei, Brady - D - 3G, 9A; 12 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
72. Lehtonen, Mikko - D - 8G, 19A; 27 points in 39GP - TPS U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga
73. Hart, Brian - RW - 29G, 32A; 61 points in 27 GP - Phillips Exeter Academy - USHS
74. Kulak, Brett - D - 9G, 15A; 24 points in 72 GP - Vancouver Giants - WHL
75. Barabanov, Alexander - LW - 18G, 21A; 39 points in 48 GP - SKA-1946 St. Petersburg - MHL
76. Gavrus, Artur - RW - 15G, 22A; 37 points in 45 GP - Owen Sound Attack - OHL
77. Zaar, Daniel - RW - 14G, 24A; 38 points in 44 GP - Rögle BK J20 - SuperElit
78. Filippov, Alexei - LW - 16G, 8A; 24 points in 45 GP - Belie Medvedi Chelyabinsk - MHL
79. Finn, Matt - D - 10G, 37A; 47 points in 61 GP - Guelph Storm - OHL
80. Beattie, Matt - RW - 39G, 34A; 73 points in 28 GP - Exeter High - USHS
81. Gordon, Coda - LW - 30G, 23A; 53 points in 66 GP - Swift Current Broncos - WHL
82. Calnan, Chris - RW - 28G, 27A; 55 points in 29 GP - Noble & Greenough School - USHS
83. Toninato, Dominic - C - 27G, 34A; 61 points in 25 GP - Duluth East High - USHS
84. McCabe, Jake - D - 3G, 9A; 12 points in 26 GP - Univ. of Wisconsin - NCAA
85. Kulmala, Rasmus - C - 1G, 1A; 2 points in 25 GP - TPS - SM-liiga
86. Sieloff, Patrik - D - 0G, 2A; 2 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
87. Tikkinen, Niklas - D - 8G, 15A; 23 points in 39 GP - Blues U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga
88. Zulinick, Morgan - C - 24G, 42A; 66 points in 57 GP - Salmon Arm Silverbacks - BCHL
89. Larsson, Fredric - D - 1G, 3A; 4 points in 14 GP - Brynäs J20 - SuperElit
90. Matteau, Stefan - LW - 6G, 4A; 10 points in 18 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
Follow Michael on twitter @gotitotti
Follow posts @WiswellMRU
Sunday, June 17, 2012
Trade them all, but not without a plan
(@Takes2toTanguay is a new contributor at Dome Ice Advantage. Have a read and discuss with him on Twitter. Also, he lives in DC, so be sure to ask him what the hell draws him to the Calgary Flames when you get a chance)
It's beginning to look like Jay Bouwmeester will be dealt. Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington could be possible destinations, as you'd expect they are seeking a top pairing defender. Would I trade him? Absolutely not. Trading Jay Bouwmeester would hurt this team and would create an insurmountable hole on the blueline. If the speculation is true, Feaster must know something we don't. If he can somehow get 2 top pairing defensemen in Calgary this summer, then by all means trade Bouwmeester. Unloading Jay at the draft would indicate that Feaster will be throwing some serious, serious dough at Parise and/or Suter - a bad gamble without a back-up plan.
Bouwmeester is always under some sort of scrutiny for his contract and lack of point production. People need to realize that he was utilized for his defensive skills rather than his offensive skills. I really want to see what he can do under a different coach and system. If the Flames manage to trade him, they better have a plan or there will be trouble. You cannot trade from weakness, and defense is serious weakness on this squad. I find it hard to believe that the Flames would get fair value in a trade for Bouwmeester. He adds value to the team, especially in a “win now” mode. If they do trade him, I’d hope Feaster can get a top 6 centre or a cheaper top pairing defender. The team is not in a position to trade their best defender for picks/mid-level prospects. So the question remains: do other teams GMs value Bouwmeester enough to deal a top-6 centre or a cheaper top pairing defender?
Henrik Karlsson is another guy that could and should be dealt. With Irving showing us a glimpse of his potential and Karri Ramo tearing it up in the KHL, Henrik Karlsson has ran his course here and for obvious reasons. He was a decent experiment, but it just never worked out for him. Not a goaltender with zero potential, he just needs an opportunity elsewhere.
Anton Babchuk would help any team’s power play and could help solidify a team who is looking for a 5/6 defenseman that can contribute offensively, but that's about it. If the Flames have any plans to upgrade their power play presence on the blue-line (and they should), I'd expect Babchuk is on his way out of town.
Matt Stajan, I would keep. I never thought I would say that, but the Flames continue to lack depth at his position. It’s clear he never truly found himself in this city. We’ve seen times where he looks like a 50+ point player and times where he looks like he's never played an NHL game before. Like a lot of players, I feel Brent Sutter didn’t utilize him the way he should have. Under a different system/coaching style, he could be effective. You'd expect the Flames are about to get even thinner up the middle this summer (especially if they aren't retaining Jokinen). This, along with a free agency pool looking rather shallow up the middle, trading away a potential #2 centreman with limited trade value might be an issue. If a team gives Feaster an offer for Stajan that makes sense, great, but you'd better be sure you have other options in the system before making that deal.
To me, there is no doubt that the Flames could ice the exact same line up and have different results under a new coaching scheme (St. Louis, LA as examples). However, you get the sense Feaster wants new faces on this team. Three years with the same line up and all we've seen is "just missed” excuses. It's not good enough. Jay Feaster and upper management would be the first to tell you it’s not good enough.
For one, I'm against a full rebuild. A gradual re-tool is simply more realistic. Trading away core guys might be the biggest mistake a team could make. It could pay off long-term, but Jarome Iginla and Miikka Kiprusoff hold more value to this squad than a blue chip prospect and a 1st rounder - especially for a team that’s in "win now” mode. It’s certainly possible that the Flames could trade Iginla and remain competitive, but trading away the face of the franchise would not make sense from a business perspective, let alone a hockey perspective. If Jarome confronts management, that’s a different story. Until that point, he won't be going anywhere.
Follow posts on Twitter @WiswellMRU
It's beginning to look like Jay Bouwmeester will be dealt. Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington could be possible destinations, as you'd expect they are seeking a top pairing defender. Would I trade him? Absolutely not. Trading Jay Bouwmeester would hurt this team and would create an insurmountable hole on the blueline. If the speculation is true, Feaster must know something we don't. If he can somehow get 2 top pairing defensemen in Calgary this summer, then by all means trade Bouwmeester. Unloading Jay at the draft would indicate that Feaster will be throwing some serious, serious dough at Parise and/or Suter - a bad gamble without a back-up plan.
Bouwmeester is always under some sort of scrutiny for his contract and lack of point production. People need to realize that he was utilized for his defensive skills rather than his offensive skills. I really want to see what he can do under a different coach and system. If the Flames manage to trade him, they better have a plan or there will be trouble. You cannot trade from weakness, and defense is serious weakness on this squad. I find it hard to believe that the Flames would get fair value in a trade for Bouwmeester. He adds value to the team, especially in a “win now” mode. If they do trade him, I’d hope Feaster can get a top 6 centre or a cheaper top pairing defender. The team is not in a position to trade their best defender for picks/mid-level prospects. So the question remains: do other teams GMs value Bouwmeester enough to deal a top-6 centre or a cheaper top pairing defender?
Henrik Karlsson is another guy that could and should be dealt. With Irving showing us a glimpse of his potential and Karri Ramo tearing it up in the KHL, Henrik Karlsson has ran his course here and for obvious reasons. He was a decent experiment, but it just never worked out for him. Not a goaltender with zero potential, he just needs an opportunity elsewhere.
Anton Babchuk would help any team’s power play and could help solidify a team who is looking for a 5/6 defenseman that can contribute offensively, but that's about it. If the Flames have any plans to upgrade their power play presence on the blue-line (and they should), I'd expect Babchuk is on his way out of town.
Matt Stajan, I would keep. I never thought I would say that, but the Flames continue to lack depth at his position. It’s clear he never truly found himself in this city. We’ve seen times where he looks like a 50+ point player and times where he looks like he's never played an NHL game before. Like a lot of players, I feel Brent Sutter didn’t utilize him the way he should have. Under a different system/coaching style, he could be effective. You'd expect the Flames are about to get even thinner up the middle this summer (especially if they aren't retaining Jokinen). This, along with a free agency pool looking rather shallow up the middle, trading away a potential #2 centreman with limited trade value might be an issue. If a team gives Feaster an offer for Stajan that makes sense, great, but you'd better be sure you have other options in the system before making that deal.
To me, there is no doubt that the Flames could ice the exact same line up and have different results under a new coaching scheme (St. Louis, LA as examples). However, you get the sense Feaster wants new faces on this team. Three years with the same line up and all we've seen is "just missed” excuses. It's not good enough. Jay Feaster and upper management would be the first to tell you it’s not good enough.
For one, I'm against a full rebuild. A gradual re-tool is simply more realistic. Trading away core guys might be the biggest mistake a team could make. It could pay off long-term, but Jarome Iginla and Miikka Kiprusoff hold more value to this squad than a blue chip prospect and a 1st rounder - especially for a team that’s in "win now” mode. It’s certainly possible that the Flames could trade Iginla and remain competitive, but trading away the face of the franchise would not make sense from a business perspective, let alone a hockey perspective. If Jarome confronts management, that’s a different story. Until that point, he won't be going anywhere.
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Saturday, June 16, 2012
Second Round Rankings - by Michael Fabrig
31. Di Giuseppe, Phil - C/LW - 11G , 15A; 26 points in 40 GP - Univ. of Michigan - NCAA
32. Lundberg, Emil - LW - 6G, 12A; 18 points in 51 GP - Södertälje - Allsvenskan
33. Dansk, Oskar - G - 28 GP, 2.82, .910 SV% - Brynäs J20 - SuperElit
34. Vatrano, Frankie - LW/C - 7G, 11A; 18 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
35. Gaunce, Brendan - C - 28G, 40A; 68 points in 68 GP - Belleville Bulls - OHL
36. Slepyshev, Anton - LW - 4G, 3A; 7 points in 39 GP - Metallurg Novokuznetsk - KHL
37. Severson, Damon - D - 7G, 30A; 37 points in 56 GP - Kelowna Rockets - WHL
38. Baillargeon, Robbie - C - 14G, 34A; 48 points in 54 GP - Indiana Ice - USHL
39. Thrower, Dalton - D - 18G, 36A; 54 points in 66 GP - Saskatoon Blades - WHL
40. Kosmachuk, Scott - RW - 30G, 29A; 59 points in 67GP - Guelph Storm - OHL
41. Prokhorkin, Nikolai - LW - 1G, 1A; 2 points in 15 GP - CSKA Moskva - KHL
42. Djuse, Emil - D - 8G, 31A; 39 points in 35 GP - Östersunds IK - SWE-1
43. Shore, Devin - C - 29G, 29A; 58 points in 41 GP - Whitby Fury - OJHL
44. Spelling, Thomas - RW - 21G, 16A; 37 points in 33 GP - Herning - Denmark
45. Collberg, Sebastian - RW - 9G, 8A; 17 points in 21 GP - Frölunda J20 - SuperElit
46. Vesey, Jimmy - C - 48G, 43A; 91 points in 45 GP - South Shore Kings - EJHL
47. Cangelosi, Austin - C - 29G, 30A; 59 points in 53 GP - Youngstown Phantoms - USHL
48. Vikstrand, Mikael - D - 2G, 1A; 3 points in 47 GP - Mora - Allsvenskan
49. Gillies, Jon - G - 53 GP, 2.77, .915 SV% - Indiana Ice - USHL
50. Andersson, Calle - D - 12G, 24A; 36 points in 49 GP - Färjestad J20 - SuperElit
51. Ebert, Nick - D - 6G, 33A; 39 points in 66 GP - Windsor Spitfires - OHL
52. Bertschy, Christoph - C - 8G, 8A; 16 points in 32 GP - Bern - NLA
53. Khaira, Jujhar - LW - 29G, 50A; 79 points in 54 GP - Prince George Spruce Kings - BCHL
54. Zlobin, Anton - RW - 40G, 36A; 76 points in 66 GP - Shawinigan Cataractes - QMJHL
55. Zharkov, Daniil - LW - 23G, 13A; 36 points in 50 GP - Belleville Bulls - OHL
56. Törnkvist, Tobias - RW - 16G, 20A; 36 points in 48 GP - Rögle BK J20 - SuperElit
57. Sutter, Lukas - C - 28G, 31A; 59 points in 70 GP - Saskatoon Blades - WHL
58. Hinostroza, Vince - C - 20G, 24A; 44 points in 55 GP - Waterloo Black Hawks - USHL
59. Laughton, Scott - C - 21G, 32A; 53 points in 64 GP - Oshawa Generals - OHL
60. Bystrom, Ludvig - D - 0G, 1A; 1 point in 20 GP - MODO - Eliteserin
Follow Michael Fabrig on Twitter @gotitotti, follow posts @WiswellMRU
32. Lundberg, Emil - LW - 6G, 12A; 18 points in 51 GP - Södertälje - Allsvenskan
33. Dansk, Oskar - G - 28 GP, 2.82, .910 SV% - Brynäs J20 - SuperElit
34. Vatrano, Frankie - LW/C - 7G, 11A; 18 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
35. Gaunce, Brendan - C - 28G, 40A; 68 points in 68 GP - Belleville Bulls - OHL
36. Slepyshev, Anton - LW - 4G, 3A; 7 points in 39 GP - Metallurg Novokuznetsk - KHL
37. Severson, Damon - D - 7G, 30A; 37 points in 56 GP - Kelowna Rockets - WHL
38. Baillargeon, Robbie - C - 14G, 34A; 48 points in 54 GP - Indiana Ice - USHL
39. Thrower, Dalton - D - 18G, 36A; 54 points in 66 GP - Saskatoon Blades - WHL
40. Kosmachuk, Scott - RW - 30G, 29A; 59 points in 67GP - Guelph Storm - OHL
41. Prokhorkin, Nikolai - LW - 1G, 1A; 2 points in 15 GP - CSKA Moskva - KHL
42. Djuse, Emil - D - 8G, 31A; 39 points in 35 GP - Östersunds IK - SWE-1
43. Shore, Devin - C - 29G, 29A; 58 points in 41 GP - Whitby Fury - OJHL
44. Spelling, Thomas - RW - 21G, 16A; 37 points in 33 GP - Herning - Denmark
45. Collberg, Sebastian - RW - 9G, 8A; 17 points in 21 GP - Frölunda J20 - SuperElit
46. Vesey, Jimmy - C - 48G, 43A; 91 points in 45 GP - South Shore Kings - EJHL
47. Cangelosi, Austin - C - 29G, 30A; 59 points in 53 GP - Youngstown Phantoms - USHL
48. Vikstrand, Mikael - D - 2G, 1A; 3 points in 47 GP - Mora - Allsvenskan
49. Gillies, Jon - G - 53 GP, 2.77, .915 SV% - Indiana Ice - USHL
50. Andersson, Calle - D - 12G, 24A; 36 points in 49 GP - Färjestad J20 - SuperElit
51. Ebert, Nick - D - 6G, 33A; 39 points in 66 GP - Windsor Spitfires - OHL
52. Bertschy, Christoph - C - 8G, 8A; 16 points in 32 GP - Bern - NLA
53. Khaira, Jujhar - LW - 29G, 50A; 79 points in 54 GP - Prince George Spruce Kings - BCHL
54. Zlobin, Anton - RW - 40G, 36A; 76 points in 66 GP - Shawinigan Cataractes - QMJHL
55. Zharkov, Daniil - LW - 23G, 13A; 36 points in 50 GP - Belleville Bulls - OHL
56. Törnkvist, Tobias - RW - 16G, 20A; 36 points in 48 GP - Rögle BK J20 - SuperElit
57. Sutter, Lukas - C - 28G, 31A; 59 points in 70 GP - Saskatoon Blades - WHL
58. Hinostroza, Vince - C - 20G, 24A; 44 points in 55 GP - Waterloo Black Hawks - USHL
59. Laughton, Scott - C - 21G, 32A; 53 points in 64 GP - Oshawa Generals - OHL
60. Bystrom, Ludvig - D - 0G, 1A; 1 point in 20 GP - MODO - Eliteserin
Follow Michael Fabrig on Twitter @gotitotti, follow posts @WiswellMRU
Thursday, June 14, 2012
First Round Rankings - by Michael Fabrig
1. Grigorenko, Mikhail - C/RW - 40G, 45A; 85 points in 59 GP - Quebec Remparts - QMJHL
2. Yakupov, Nail - RW - 31G, 38A; 69 points in 42 GP - Sarnia Sting - OHL
3. Galchenyuk, Alex - C - 31G, 52A; 83 points in 68 GP ('10-11) - Sarnia Sting - OHL
4. Forsberg, Filip - LW - 8G, 9A; 17 points in 43 GP - Leksand - Allsvenskan
5. Lindholm, Hampus - D - 1G, 3A; 4 points in 20 GP - Rogle - Elitserien
6. Teräväinen, Teuvo - RW - 11G, 7A; 18 points in 40 GP - Jokerit - SM-liiga
7. Rielly, Morgan - D - 3G, 15A; 18 points in 18 GP - Moose Jaw Warriors - WHL
8. Hertl, Tomas - C - 12G, 13A; 25 points in 38 GP - HC Slavia Praha - Czech
9. Girgensons, Zemgus - C/RW - 24G, 31A; 55 points in 49 GP - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL
10. Matheson, Michael - D - 11G, 16A; 27 points in 53 GP - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL
11. Åberg, Pontus - LW/RW - 8G, 7A; 15 points in 47 GP - Djurgården - Elitserien
12. Määttä, Olli - D - 5G, 27A; 32 points in 58 GP - London Knights - OHL
13. Pouliot, Derrick - D - 11G, 48A; 59 points in 72 GP - Portland Winter Hawks - WHL
14. Murray, Ryan - D - 9G, 22A; 31 points in 46 GP - Everett Silvertips - WHL
15. Dumba, Matthew - D - 20G, 37A; 57 Points in 69 GP - Red Deer Rebels - WHL
16. Trouba, Jacob - D - 4G, 14A; 18 points in 22 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
17. Reinhart, Griffin - D - 12G, 24A; 36 points in 58 GP - Edmonton Oil Kings - WHL
18. Kerdiles, Nicolas - C - 4G, 9A; 13 points in 18GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
19. Bozon, Timothé - LW - 36G, 35A; 71 points in 71 GP - Kamloops Blazers - WHL
20. Vasilevski, Andrei - G - 27 GP, 2.23, .931 SV% - Tolpar Ufa - MHL
21. Koekkoek, Slater - D - 5G, 13A; 18 points in 26 GP - Peterborough Petes - OHL
22. Ceci, Cody - D - 17G, 43A; 60 points in 63 GP - Ottawa 67's - OHL
23. Frk, Martin - RW - 16G, 13A; 29 points in 34GP - Halifax Mooseheads - QMJHL
24. Pokka, Ville - D - 0G, 3A; 3 points in 35 GP - Kärpät - SM-liiga
25. Roy, Kevin - LW - 50G, 54A; 104 points in 59 GP - Lincoln Stars - USHL
26. Lindell, Esa - D - 21G, 30A; 51 points in 48 GP - Jokerit U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga
27. Jankowski, Mark - C - 53G , 40A; 93 points in 57 GP - Stanstead College - Quebec Prep
28. Subban, Malcolm - G - 39 GP, 2.50, .923 SV% - Belleville Bulls - OHL
29. Faksa, Radek - C - 29G, 38A; 67 points in 62 GP - Kitchener Rangers - OHL
30. Schmaltz, Jordan - D - 7G, 28A; 35 points in 46 GP - Green Bay Gamblers - USHL
Thanks again to Michael for his insight. We will post his entire rankings (Rounds 2-7) on the site periodically as we approach the Draft. Follow Michael at @gotitotti for more discussion.
Follow posts on twitter @WiswellMRU
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Flames First Round Must-Haves by Michael Fabrig
Michael Fabrig (@gotitotti) was nice enough to contribute a list of his top first round prospects in the Flames' wheelhouse. Michael has a relationship with NHL scouts and does a ton of analysis on prospects. His insight on future NHLers is impressive. Have a read!
Choice 1: Tomas Hertl - C - 6'2" - HC Slavia Praha - Czech
Comparable: Derek Stepan
Reason: The Flames are lacking a high-end Centre; every team in the league wishes for a player like Hertl -- blessed size, skill, and most importantly -- acumen. Hertl projects to be a top-6 forward with abilities to be versatile on the wing. His Czech team did better than expected at the WJHC -- Hertl was the only draft-eligible to named the top-3 on his team. Hertl is a very smart player with high-end skills. I think Hertl's progression will continue, if it does, by next-year around, he'll be deemed a steal at 14.
Choice 2: Zemgus Girgensons - C - 6'2" - C - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL
Comparable: Ryan Kesler
Reason: As a big factor why Brian Burke was convinced in Ryan Kesler's leadership, and ability to score and have a rugged presence, Girgensons seems so convincing that he plans to use to the same game-plan to get to the big leagues. Girgensons has a play-making side that is rather 'underrated'. The scouts that I've talked to are convinced that after a year at Vermont, he'll be more than ready to play in the NHL. After viewing his playoff performance, I was convinced that he could have scored more goals if it wasn't for the broken jaw. Girgensons makes a whole lot of sense as a Calgary Flame, he's big and skilled, and plays C! The question is -- will he be good enough to be a top-6? That question is why I had Hertl over Girgensons. I wouldn't be surprised if Girgensons, someday, becomes a captain somewhere in the NHL. Roberts Lipsbergs and Nikita Jevpalovs are 2 other Latvians that are starting to put Latvian hockey on the board. Great to see Latvian hockey getting bigger and better.
Choice 3: Andrei Vasilevski - G - 6'3" - Tolpar UFA - MHL.
Comparable: Tuukka Rask
Reason: Simply put, the Flames are, inevitably, going to have to start thinking and finding a way to have a future goalie after Kipper. Leland Irving and Karri Ramo look like good corner-stones to bank-on, but, at this point, they're not proven that they are the guys of the future. Vasilevski is blessed technically; his in-tangibles make it very convincing to see that he will be in the NHL one day. The Russian-factor is something that might turn-away some teams from drafting him; I haven't seen a Russian Goaltender look this promising in a long time.
Choice 4: Michael Matheson - D - 6'2" - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL
Comparable - John Carlson
Reason: Michael Matheson has the size and shot to eventually be a great top-4 d-man in the NHL. Consistency has been the biggest knack that scouts have on Matheson. His shot, ability to jump in the play, and silky-smooth skating ability are easy enough to take a stab at the former Lac Saint-Louis Lions scoring star. Matheson was dominant in the USHL playoffs -- he had 4 goals in 5 games. His pedigree showcases a player that rises to the occasion come playoff-time. Playing with Boston College next year will help his game mature; his defensive work with get a great challenge, the eventuality, it will let him mature there. His offensive abilities are very profound; I think Matheson will take these intangibles with him when eventually comes to the NHL -- at that point, teams will be salivating. You picture Matheson, Giordano, T.J. Brodie -- a great core that will make it hard for teams to deal with.
Choice 5: Pontus Aberg - RW - 5'11" - Djurgarden - Elitserien
Comparable: Mathias Tedenby
Reason: a scoring winger is something that adds huge value to a team. Tedenby is faster and has more skill -- Aberg has a better ability to shoot the puck like a sniper. With a majority of Aberg's points coming in the first-half of the season, its scary to think what his point totals would have been if it wasn't for the shoulder injury. We've seen what that has done to guys like Hall and Kesler in the big leagues, and what it had done to their statistics. Aberg is a bit of a risky pick -- but with the organization very shallow with Right Winger's, taking a guy like Aberg could fast-track the player to not only come in the league, but, make a positive contribution.
Choice 6: Derrick Pouliot - D - 5'11" - Portland Winter Hawks - WHL
Comparable: Erik Karlsson
Reason: No doubt, Derrick Pouliot is a game-breaker. His offensive skills are at the same level as Morgan Rielly. Watching the Top Prospects game, for me, the guy that really impressed me was Pouliot. The defensive side to his game is very questionable at times. At the end of the day, his position is a defense -- a team is drafting with the expectation for him to play that position. I think his offense, skating ability, and the ability to join the rush at the right times make him a catch. I think Pouliot has more transferable skills than Murray and Dumba -- hence, why I have him higher. He has some natural abilities that will separate himself from other competitors for a roster spot. I personally think that Dumba's Phanuef-life approach to the game will quickly wash away -- he's 5'11". Ryan Murray, like Jay Boumeester, has tremendous skating and longevity to probably be an Iron-Man in the NHL, but I don't see him having a wow-factor. It's like guys like Victor Hedman, Braydon Coburn, and Luke Schenn -- guys that when looking back, you might have not taken them so high if you knew how they'd translate in the NHL.
Thanks again to Michael for his contributions. He will have his full rankings (rounds 1-7!) up on the site soon. You can follow him on twitter @gotitotti.
Follow posts on twitter @WiswellMRU
Choice 1: Tomas Hertl - C - 6'2" - HC Slavia Praha - Czech
Comparable: Derek Stepan
Reason: The Flames are lacking a high-end Centre; every team in the league wishes for a player like Hertl -- blessed size, skill, and most importantly -- acumen. Hertl projects to be a top-6 forward with abilities to be versatile on the wing. His Czech team did better than expected at the WJHC -- Hertl was the only draft-eligible to named the top-3 on his team. Hertl is a very smart player with high-end skills. I think Hertl's progression will continue, if it does, by next-year around, he'll be deemed a steal at 14.
Choice 2: Zemgus Girgensons - C - 6'2" - C - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL
Comparable: Ryan Kesler
Reason: As a big factor why Brian Burke was convinced in Ryan Kesler's leadership, and ability to score and have a rugged presence, Girgensons seems so convincing that he plans to use to the same game-plan to get to the big leagues. Girgensons has a play-making side that is rather 'underrated'. The scouts that I've talked to are convinced that after a year at Vermont, he'll be more than ready to play in the NHL. After viewing his playoff performance, I was convinced that he could have scored more goals if it wasn't for the broken jaw. Girgensons makes a whole lot of sense as a Calgary Flame, he's big and skilled, and plays C! The question is -- will he be good enough to be a top-6? That question is why I had Hertl over Girgensons. I wouldn't be surprised if Girgensons, someday, becomes a captain somewhere in the NHL. Roberts Lipsbergs and Nikita Jevpalovs are 2 other Latvians that are starting to put Latvian hockey on the board. Great to see Latvian hockey getting bigger and better.
Choice 3: Andrei Vasilevski - G - 6'3" - Tolpar UFA - MHL.
Comparable: Tuukka Rask
Reason: Simply put, the Flames are, inevitably, going to have to start thinking and finding a way to have a future goalie after Kipper. Leland Irving and Karri Ramo look like good corner-stones to bank-on, but, at this point, they're not proven that they are the guys of the future. Vasilevski is blessed technically; his in-tangibles make it very convincing to see that he will be in the NHL one day. The Russian-factor is something that might turn-away some teams from drafting him; I haven't seen a Russian Goaltender look this promising in a long time.
Choice 4: Michael Matheson - D - 6'2" - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL
Comparable - John Carlson
Reason: Michael Matheson has the size and shot to eventually be a great top-4 d-man in the NHL. Consistency has been the biggest knack that scouts have on Matheson. His shot, ability to jump in the play, and silky-smooth skating ability are easy enough to take a stab at the former Lac Saint-Louis Lions scoring star. Matheson was dominant in the USHL playoffs -- he had 4 goals in 5 games. His pedigree showcases a player that rises to the occasion come playoff-time. Playing with Boston College next year will help his game mature; his defensive work with get a great challenge, the eventuality, it will let him mature there. His offensive abilities are very profound; I think Matheson will take these intangibles with him when eventually comes to the NHL -- at that point, teams will be salivating. You picture Matheson, Giordano, T.J. Brodie -- a great core that will make it hard for teams to deal with.
Choice 5: Pontus Aberg - RW - 5'11" - Djurgarden - Elitserien
Comparable: Mathias Tedenby
Reason: a scoring winger is something that adds huge value to a team. Tedenby is faster and has more skill -- Aberg has a better ability to shoot the puck like a sniper. With a majority of Aberg's points coming in the first-half of the season, its scary to think what his point totals would have been if it wasn't for the shoulder injury. We've seen what that has done to guys like Hall and Kesler in the big leagues, and what it had done to their statistics. Aberg is a bit of a risky pick -- but with the organization very shallow with Right Winger's, taking a guy like Aberg could fast-track the player to not only come in the league, but, make a positive contribution.
Choice 6: Derrick Pouliot - D - 5'11" - Portland Winter Hawks - WHL
Comparable: Erik Karlsson
Reason: No doubt, Derrick Pouliot is a game-breaker. His offensive skills are at the same level as Morgan Rielly. Watching the Top Prospects game, for me, the guy that really impressed me was Pouliot. The defensive side to his game is very questionable at times. At the end of the day, his position is a defense -- a team is drafting with the expectation for him to play that position. I think his offense, skating ability, and the ability to join the rush at the right times make him a catch. I think Pouliot has more transferable skills than Murray and Dumba -- hence, why I have him higher. He has some natural abilities that will separate himself from other competitors for a roster spot. I personally think that Dumba's Phanuef-life approach to the game will quickly wash away -- he's 5'11". Ryan Murray, like Jay Boumeester, has tremendous skating and longevity to probably be an Iron-Man in the NHL, but I don't see him having a wow-factor. It's like guys like Victor Hedman, Braydon Coburn, and Luke Schenn -- guys that when looking back, you might have not taken them so high if you knew how they'd translate in the NHL.
Thanks again to Michael for his contributions. He will have his full rankings (rounds 1-7!) up on the site soon. You can follow him on twitter @gotitotti.
Follow posts on twitter @WiswellMRU
Monday, January 16, 2012
Direction, You Say?
What's with questioning the "direction" of a team when it acquires a skilled, top-6 player? If any organization is turning down a shot at a proven scorer at 29 years old in order to stay true to the "direction" of the franchise, they need to get a new direction. In any industry, competitiveness is essential, regardless of the 5-year plan.
Mike Cammalleri has a high skill level. The Flames do not. He's performed well in the playoffs within the last two seasons. The Flames haven't even qualified. He's a proven top-6 guy and adds another weapon to the PP. And most of all, he was underachieving this season, and therefore available in the market. Are the Flames in a position to pass up on this guy because they're in a soft rebuild (or "re-tool")? No chance.
In terms of direction, since when is a 29-year old winger over-the-hill? This is the big leagues, where most players don't make a significant impact until age 24-25. The age component of the deal is entirely reasonable, especially when shedding a 30-year old in the process, with a contract that was arguably worse (double the term). To me, it's a win: a wash in terms of age, for more skill and fewer years. And no, I don't expect him to put up 80 points in a Flames sweater again. I could certainly live with 65-70 points in the next two seasons, however.
On top of all the asset banter, professional hockey is about entertainment, and Cammalleri is the type of player fans come to see.
Now, for the other assets that were sent packing...
Patrick Holland is a heck of an overachieving 7th-round prospect, but how much has he elevated his NHL potential in this time frame? Could he be a top-6 forward in the NHL one day? Maybe. More likely, however, he's a 3rd or 4th line utility player. Guys like that are readily available, and the Flames have plenty of them in the system as is.
Losing a second round pick (in 2013) is a concern - no question... But you'd expect there will be a number of players made available at the deadline (Stempniak, Moss, Morrison, Jackman...?) for contending teams that *could* bring about a small handful of 3rd-5th round picks. Quantity over quality is a decent consolation prize when it comes to draft picks.
THAT THROW-IN GOALIE WITH A FUNNY NAME
Originally, I was skeptical about Karri Ramo as a "throw in" for the deal. I figured it was Feaster re-acquiring a former TB prospect as his reclamation project. Ramo is certainly a project, but as it turns out, he may not be far off in terms of everyday contributions at the NHL level. Known as a top goalie in the KHL, with a back-to-back goals against avg of 1.97, he's worth the gamble. And at only 25 years old, this "throw-in" goaltender may bring much more:
http://m.torontosun.com/2012/01/13/goalie-acquired-in-cammalleri-deal-could-spell-end-of-kipper-with-flames
Rebuild, Re-tool or contend, there will always be a need to add skilled, proven players to the line-up. Just ask the Oilers or Islanders. Cap space notwithstanding, I could see Cammalleri fitting in on 25 of the 30 teams in the league. You can scout and draft well, calling it "organizational direction" or "progress." Yet, if you're not constantly improving your team's competitiveness, free agents will sign elsewhere, and your former first-round picks will diminish into obscurity.
Welcome back, Cammo.
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
Mike Cammalleri has a high skill level. The Flames do not. He's performed well in the playoffs within the last two seasons. The Flames haven't even qualified. He's a proven top-6 guy and adds another weapon to the PP. And most of all, he was underachieving this season, and therefore available in the market. Are the Flames in a position to pass up on this guy because they're in a soft rebuild (or "re-tool")? No chance.
In terms of direction, since when is a 29-year old winger over-the-hill? This is the big leagues, where most players don't make a significant impact until age 24-25. The age component of the deal is entirely reasonable, especially when shedding a 30-year old in the process, with a contract that was arguably worse (double the term). To me, it's a win: a wash in terms of age, for more skill and fewer years. And no, I don't expect him to put up 80 points in a Flames sweater again. I could certainly live with 65-70 points in the next two seasons, however.
On top of all the asset banter, professional hockey is about entertainment, and Cammalleri is the type of player fans come to see.
Now, for the other assets that were sent packing...
Patrick Holland is a heck of an overachieving 7th-round prospect, but how much has he elevated his NHL potential in this time frame? Could he be a top-6 forward in the NHL one day? Maybe. More likely, however, he's a 3rd or 4th line utility player. Guys like that are readily available, and the Flames have plenty of them in the system as is.
Losing a second round pick (in 2013) is a concern - no question... But you'd expect there will be a number of players made available at the deadline (Stempniak, Moss, Morrison, Jackman...?) for contending teams that *could* bring about a small handful of 3rd-5th round picks. Quantity over quality is a decent consolation prize when it comes to draft picks.
THAT THROW-IN GOALIE WITH A FUNNY NAME
Originally, I was skeptical about Karri Ramo as a "throw in" for the deal. I figured it was Feaster re-acquiring a former TB prospect as his reclamation project. Ramo is certainly a project, but as it turns out, he may not be far off in terms of everyday contributions at the NHL level. Known as a top goalie in the KHL, with a back-to-back goals against avg of 1.97, he's worth the gamble. And at only 25 years old, this "throw-in" goaltender may bring much more:
http://m.torontosun.com/2012/01/13/goalie-acquired-in-cammalleri-deal-could-spell-end-of-kipper-with-flames
Rebuild, Re-tool or contend, there will always be a need to add skilled, proven players to the line-up. Just ask the Oilers or Islanders. Cap space notwithstanding, I could see Cammalleri fitting in on 25 of the 30 teams in the league. You can scout and draft well, calling it "organizational direction" or "progress." Yet, if you're not constantly improving your team's competitiveness, free agents will sign elsewhere, and your former first-round picks will diminish into obscurity.
Welcome back, Cammo.
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Monday, November 28, 2011
Calgary Flames Quarterly Report
This has been a painfully predictable start in the eyes of many Flames followers, yet one theme prevails atop the struggles: the Flames are bad, but not THIS bad. We could point to a lack of skill, but that argument no longer carries weight. The likes of Nashville, Phoenix and Minnesota seem to be getting by with solid goaltending and a lack of high-end skill. So why are the Flames in 13th place? Here are a number of explanations for it.
1. A lack of sustained back-pressure from the forwards has allowed opposing players significant time and space with the puck. Without any back-pressure, the opposition isn't forced to make quick (and often poor) decisions with the puck. As a result, the D men are forced to attack, rather than playing a more conservative contain game, which leads to poor pinches and odd man rushes against. Basically, a lack of defensive pressure and support from the forwards makes the D men - and the scoreboard - look atrocious.
1. A lack of sustained back-pressure from the forwards has allowed opposing players significant time and space with the puck. Without any back-pressure, the opposition isn't forced to make quick (and often poor) decisions with the puck. As a result, the D men are forced to attack, rather than playing a more conservative contain game, which leads to poor pinches and odd man rushes against. Basically, a lack of defensive pressure and support from the forwards makes the D men - and the scoreboard - look atrocious.
2. While it may work in short spurts, heavy dependence on goaltending is unsustainable. Both Kiprusoff and Karlsson have been stellar, but these contributions merely mask shortcomings in team performance. A number of wins (vs. Colorado especially) were the result of timely goaltending, whereas a segment of tight losses could have been blowouts (vs. Buffalo, Detroit, St Louis) if not for steady netminding from the tandem. So, could it be worse for this team? Actually, it could. Not to say you shouldn't expect your goaltender to be good, but when you allow the other team to come at you in waves, you won’t win with any regularity.
3. The Flames' horrendous power play has nothing to do with a lack of skill or an aging team. In fact, it's more the result of a brutal break-out. There is a lack of urgency and flow leaving the zone. The feet are not moving, and the D simply throw the puck into the corner, where the forwards fail to outnumber the opposition in puck battles. Why isn't the *extra* man utilized here? Once they gain the zone (if ever), puck-movement is forced and predictable, as the likes of Iginla, Tanguay and Bourque stand around, waiting for the play to come to them. When the feet aren't moving, the opposition is able to stand still and block shooting lanes with ease. Once the PP quarterbacks (Giordano, Bouwmeester) lose patience with the lack of flow, they casually throw the puck right into some shin pads, and the squad is forced to reset.
4. Poor offensive AND defensive efforts from the top line is hand-cuffing this team. If the Flames continue to rely on Joker & Glencross to produce offense against the likes of Datsyuk and Toews every game, 13th place will be best-case for the team. Based on matchups, the top-line should be potting one goal per game. At this rate, the #2 “shutdown” line can compliment these heavy hitters with some production at key times. Instead, the players facing the most difficult match-ups (#2) are also most effective in the offensive zone. To me, that comes down to hustle. We can give it a rest with the “Iggy deserves better” and “send him to a contender” until he starts performing again.
3. The Flames' horrendous power play has nothing to do with a lack of skill or an aging team. In fact, it's more the result of a brutal break-out. There is a lack of urgency and flow leaving the zone. The feet are not moving, and the D simply throw the puck into the corner, where the forwards fail to outnumber the opposition in puck battles. Why isn't the *extra* man utilized here? Once they gain the zone (if ever), puck-movement is forced and predictable, as the likes of Iginla, Tanguay and Bourque stand around, waiting for the play to come to them. When the feet aren't moving, the opposition is able to stand still and block shooting lanes with ease. Once the PP quarterbacks (Giordano, Bouwmeester) lose patience with the lack of flow, they casually throw the puck right into some shin pads, and the squad is forced to reset.
4. Poor offensive AND defensive efforts from the top line is hand-cuffing this team. If the Flames continue to rely on Joker & Glencross to produce offense against the likes of Datsyuk and Toews every game, 13th place will be best-case for the team. Based on matchups, the top-line should be potting one goal per game. At this rate, the #2 “shutdown” line can compliment these heavy hitters with some production at key times. Instead, the players facing the most difficult match-ups (#2) are also most effective in the offensive zone. To me, that comes down to hustle. We can give it a rest with the “Iggy deserves better” and “send him to a contender” until he starts performing again.
Over the last two seasons, it has become very clear that Sutter and Iginla have some philosophical differences. If the captain doesn’t play within the team structure at age 34, who will be held accountable to it? If the message applies to everyone but the face of the franchise, what message is the organization sending? Have a listen.
Brent & Iggy, courtesy Fan960:
Brent & Iggy, courtesy Fan960:
http://www.fan960.com/ondemand/media.jsp?content=20111122_161600_14048
Jokinen re-vamping his game:
Jokinen re-vamping his game:
http://video.flames.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=11&id=136995
5. For hockey fans, the phrase “dump and chase” is looked on unfavorably, and attributed to offensively challenged teams. In reality, some of the league’s elite teams use this strategy to maintain puck possession (Vancouver, Detroit). Through more intelligent D&C execution, they are able to re-gain control of the puck and maintain the offensive flow.
Sample 1 - Flames player: “my feet are not moving. My linemates’ feet are not moving. I will *fire* the puck around the boards (hopefully past the goalie’s stick) so we can battle the D men and *hope* to get the puck back.”
Sample 2 - DET/VAN player: “I have the puck and my teammates are changing OR not moving their feet. I will *hold* onto the puck and generate some speed for an extra 2-3 seconds, until a teammate is heading north with speed. I will then flip the puck *softly* into the opposite corner (where the goaltender cannot retrieve it) as my teammate continues on a straight path for the *bouncing* puck.”
By attacking the (often) flat-footed D men with speed and a direct path to the puck, there will be a greater chance of retrieval AND potential for confusion between the goaltender and the D men. Next time you see Detroit or Vancouver (especially in person), make a point of watching for this.
The Flames D&C actually involves throwing the puck away, with no speed, and hoping to get lucky with some physical play in the corner. Most of the time, it is rimmed around the boards and easily intercepted by the goaltender. From here, opposing D men can sweep around (with speed) and advance the puck. This is especially painful to watch on the power play.
5. For hockey fans, the phrase “dump and chase” is looked on unfavorably, and attributed to offensively challenged teams. In reality, some of the league’s elite teams use this strategy to maintain puck possession (Vancouver, Detroit). Through more intelligent D&C execution, they are able to re-gain control of the puck and maintain the offensive flow.
Sample 1 - Flames player: “my feet are not moving. My linemates’ feet are not moving. I will *fire* the puck around the boards (hopefully past the goalie’s stick) so we can battle the D men and *hope* to get the puck back.”
Sample 2 - DET/VAN player: “I have the puck and my teammates are changing OR not moving their feet. I will *hold* onto the puck and generate some speed for an extra 2-3 seconds, until a teammate is heading north with speed. I will then flip the puck *softly* into the opposite corner (where the goaltender cannot retrieve it) as my teammate continues on a straight path for the *bouncing* puck.”
By attacking the (often) flat-footed D men with speed and a direct path to the puck, there will be a greater chance of retrieval AND potential for confusion between the goaltender and the D men. Next time you see Detroit or Vancouver (especially in person), make a point of watching for this.
The Flames D&C actually involves throwing the puck away, with no speed, and hoping to get lucky with some physical play in the corner. Most of the time, it is rimmed around the boards and easily intercepted by the goaltender. From here, opposing D men can sweep around (with speed) and advance the puck. This is especially painful to watch on the power play.
6. This passive, perimeter offense looks like a bottom-feeder. Wrist shots to the crest from the outside (ahem, Bourque) make life pretty easy on the opposition. This is why every goaltender seems to have a bounce-back game when they face the Flames. More speed and physical assertiveness forces double-coverage, which opens up alternatives for outlet passes. A more aggressive forecheck -> opponent mistakes -> increased puck possession in scoring areas -> goals. This high-tempo offense needs to be utilized with more consistency, as illustrated in two 5-2 wins (in Minnesota, and at home vs Chicago).
THREE POSITIVES
1. Jokinen/Glencross consistency
2. Subtle youth movement
Horak, Byron, Backlund, Smith (sort of), Brodie: rewarded for solid/consistent play, filling in for veterans (Stajan/Morrison, Sarich and formerly Hagman) in replaceable roles. These youngsters not only bring speed and energy, but have proved to be very dependable. If Brent is able to rely on these players to play solid, significant minutes, the offensive totals will come. It may not involve elite-level talent, but the youth movement has begun in Calgary.
3. Rare prospect success
THREE POSITIVES
1. Jokinen/Glencross consistency
2. Subtle youth movement
Horak, Byron, Backlund, Smith (sort of), Brodie: rewarded for solid/consistent play, filling in for veterans (Stajan/Morrison, Sarich and formerly Hagman) in replaceable roles. These youngsters not only bring speed and energy, but have proved to be very dependable. If Brent is able to rely on these players to play solid, significant minutes, the offensive totals will come. It may not involve elite-level talent, but the youth movement has begun in Calgary.
3. Rare prospect success
This will help cushion the blow after the next shutout loss to Minnesota or Nashville at home. While a handful of these prospects are still at least one year away, it’s encouraging to see this type of production out of not only former 1st round picks, but even 5th-7th round picks:
Sven Baertschi (Portland) 45 pts in 19 GP
Sven Baertschi (Portland) 45 pts in 19 GP
Michael Ferland (Brandon) 42 pts in 28 GP
Greg Nemisz (AHL Abbotsford) 17 pts in 19 GP
Patrick Holland (Tri-City) 26 pts in 25 G
Max Reinhart (Kootenay) 31 pts in 23 GP
Johnny Gaudreau (Freshman, Boston College) 11 pts in 13 GP
Bill Arnold (Sophomore, Boston College) 14 pts in 13 GP
Markus Granlund (HIFK Helsinki) 11 pts in 19 GP, and a beautiful lacrosse goal:
As of today: Michael Ferland and Max Reinhart were named to Team Canada of the World Junior championships. Sven Baertschi was named to Team Switzerland. Here’s Assistant GM John Weisbrod on the announcements, courtesy Fan960:
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Tuesday, September 13, 2011
10 Flames Forecasts for 11/12
*Glencross < 20 goals*
Glencross has been a streaky player from the outset in Calgary. His new deal won’t handcuff the team in terms of dollars, but the 4-year deal comes with expectations. The fact that Curtis played his best hockey in a 3 month stretch within a contract year wasn’t a coincidence, and that will be confirmed this season. Glencross will continue to evolve as an effective defensive forward, but he will not hit the 20-goal mark this season.
*Butler: plus player, avg 20 mins of ice*
Any time you give up the best player in a trade, it’s difficult to look positively on the return. In this case, however, the Regehr trade brought a versatile, mobile D man that will take a significant step forward this season. Chris Butler played in a number of roles with the Buffalo Sabres, varying from a healthy scratch to the top-pairing, alongside Tyler Myers. This season, Butler will take a significant step forward in his consistency, and solidify himself in a top-4 role. On top of that, he will average at least 20 minutes of ice time and come out a (+/-) plus player. Of course, Butler won’t replace Regehr’s presence on the back-end, but he will establish himself as a reliable top-4 D man in Calgary.
*Bouwmeester > 40 pts*
You read correctly. To this point, JBo’s highest point total with the Flames is 29. With greater team emphasis on two-way play, and increased ice-time (if possible) due to the loss of Regehr, Bouw will see more opportunities to jump up in the play and make things happen offensively. He’ll continue to get 2nd-rate PP time behind Giordano and Babchuk, which will also help his point totals, but his time in even strength situations will play an even larger factor. Bouwmeester was the go-to guy in Florida, and seemed to thrive in that role. When he arrived in Calgary, he found himself as one of many formidable forces on the back-end. Now that Regehr and Phaneuf have moved on, Bouw will once again be the go-to guy 5on5. His first two seasons have been underwhelming, which makes this an even safer prediction: hitting the 40 point mark, 2011-12 will be Bouwmeester’s best year as a Flame.
*Karlsson > 14 wins*
The “Calgary Tower” improved steadily over the 2010-2011 campaign. Not only do I expect that process to continue this season, but I expect Kiprusoff to take another step back. By and large, he has struggled in recent history, and a soon-to-be 35 year old goaltender isn’t likely to become more consistent overnight. Of course, he will steal the odd game, but his drastic swings in performance will not be tolerated to the same degree, especially with a back-up that the coach has confidence in. Karlsson will appear in 22-30 games, and will earn at least 14 wins this season. Bold prediction, no doubt, but if his game continues to evolve as it has, it’s not all that unrealistic.
*Cory Sarich: healthy scratch for 30+ games*
In recent history, Sarich has shown he isn't a full-time top-4 D man. His struggles with speedy forwards stands out as one major factor. The way I see it, there are three top-4 calibre D men on the team: Giordano, Bouwmeester and Hannan. To fill the last spot, you're left with two hopefuls who have played significant minutes in the past - Butler and Carson. I expect one of these two will take that final spot. Now we sit at the bottom two, and assuming Babchuk is penciled in as the 5th D man, things start to get messy. Outside of Sarich, you have one of Butler/Carson, Negrin, Brodie, Breen, Wilson, Smith and even Henry. There's a mix of one and two-way deals here, but if one of these guys stands out in training camp, Sarich is out. The Flames illustrated they are willing to put big contracts in the press box, as they sat Sarich and Staios (a combined 6.3 mill) early last season, while scratching Stajan and dropping Kotalik to the minors later on in the year. In a bottom-two role, the contributions of Sarich are easily replaceable. If the Flames are truly running a "meritocracy" this training camp, Sarich will be the odd man out.
*Byron fills in, scores 10*
The Flames blogosphere is a buzz about Paul Byron, mostly for the wrong reasons. I’ve read plenty of pieces that bash Byron as a prospect. What needs to be understood is that while he was an average prospect in the Sabres system, he's added to the mix in Calgary and immediately lands top-10 in the Flames' system. Of course, this reflects poorly on the Flames and isn't anything to marvel over, but it also means Byron is much closer to NHL minutes in Calgary. I expect there are still trades to come up front for the Flames prior to game 1 of the regular season. In concert with this will be Morrison's knee injury, which will create an opening for Byron as the Flames' first call-up on forward. He will fill in admirably in a depth role, notching 10+ goals in less than a full season with the big club.
*Brodie, Breen play entire year in Abbotsford*
I know it's fun to rehash Brodie's heroic training camp last season, and envision a stunning pre-season from Breen based on his improved play last season. On second thought: it's really not realistic for either to spend significant time with the big club. Brodie is a top prospect for the Flames, and by virtue of that, has had some unrealistic expectations placed on him for the coming year. Both of these prospects have improved steadily over the past year, but neither is a full-time NHLer as of today. I watched a handful of AHL games last season, and have kept a keen eye on the prospect games in Penticton. My assessment: neither Breen nor Brodie have stood out, which is what NHL calibre players should do in these settings. I expect both will be NHLers in years to come, but this won't be the year.
*Flames sit bottom-10 in goals against*
Over the summer, the Flames got younger and more mobile. You could argue they added skill, or improved depth, but the defensive play remains a huge question mark. In deleting two dependable players such as Langkow and Regehr while the goaltending position gets another year older, it's hard to see this team improving on its league-wide rank of 19th in goals against. This ranking may not get significantly worse, but expect CGY to land in the bottom-10 this season.
*Flames back into 8th place*
The result won't be far off the 2010-2011 campaign, but it will unfold in reverse. The Flames will explode out of the gate, and cool off drastically in the latter half of the season, backing into 8th place in the West. There will be playoffs, but like so many years before, not enough momentum leading into round one for any playoff success.
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Glencross has been a streaky player from the outset in Calgary. His new deal won’t handcuff the team in terms of dollars, but the 4-year deal comes with expectations. The fact that Curtis played his best hockey in a 3 month stretch within a contract year wasn’t a coincidence, and that will be confirmed this season. Glencross will continue to evolve as an effective defensive forward, but he will not hit the 20-goal mark this season.
*Butler: plus player, avg 20 mins of ice*
Any time you give up the best player in a trade, it’s difficult to look positively on the return. In this case, however, the Regehr trade brought a versatile, mobile D man that will take a significant step forward this season. Chris Butler played in a number of roles with the Buffalo Sabres, varying from a healthy scratch to the top-pairing, alongside Tyler Myers. This season, Butler will take a significant step forward in his consistency, and solidify himself in a top-4 role. On top of that, he will average at least 20 minutes of ice time and come out a (+/-) plus player. Of course, Butler won’t replace Regehr’s presence on the back-end, but he will establish himself as a reliable top-4 D man in Calgary.
*Bouwmeester > 40 pts*
You read correctly. To this point, JBo’s highest point total with the Flames is 29. With greater team emphasis on two-way play, and increased ice-time (if possible) due to the loss of Regehr, Bouw will see more opportunities to jump up in the play and make things happen offensively. He’ll continue to get 2nd-rate PP time behind Giordano and Babchuk, which will also help his point totals, but his time in even strength situations will play an even larger factor. Bouwmeester was the go-to guy in Florida, and seemed to thrive in that role. When he arrived in Calgary, he found himself as one of many formidable forces on the back-end. Now that Regehr and Phaneuf have moved on, Bouw will once again be the go-to guy 5on5. His first two seasons have been underwhelming, which makes this an even safer prediction: hitting the 40 point mark, 2011-12 will be Bouwmeester’s best year as a Flame.
*Karlsson > 14 wins*
The “Calgary Tower” improved steadily over the 2010-2011 campaign. Not only do I expect that process to continue this season, but I expect Kiprusoff to take another step back. By and large, he has struggled in recent history, and a soon-to-be 35 year old goaltender isn’t likely to become more consistent overnight. Of course, he will steal the odd game, but his drastic swings in performance will not be tolerated to the same degree, especially with a back-up that the coach has confidence in. Karlsson will appear in 22-30 games, and will earn at least 14 wins this season. Bold prediction, no doubt, but if his game continues to evolve as it has, it’s not all that unrealistic.
*Cory Sarich: healthy scratch for 30+ games*
In recent history, Sarich has shown he isn't a full-time top-4 D man. His struggles with speedy forwards stands out as one major factor. The way I see it, there are three top-4 calibre D men on the team: Giordano, Bouwmeester and Hannan. To fill the last spot, you're left with two hopefuls who have played significant minutes in the past - Butler and Carson. I expect one of these two will take that final spot. Now we sit at the bottom two, and assuming Babchuk is penciled in as the 5th D man, things start to get messy. Outside of Sarich, you have one of Butler/Carson, Negrin, Brodie, Breen, Wilson, Smith and even Henry. There's a mix of one and two-way deals here, but if one of these guys stands out in training camp, Sarich is out. The Flames illustrated they are willing to put big contracts in the press box, as they sat Sarich and Staios (a combined 6.3 mill) early last season, while scratching Stajan and dropping Kotalik to the minors later on in the year. In a bottom-two role, the contributions of Sarich are easily replaceable. If the Flames are truly running a "meritocracy" this training camp, Sarich will be the odd man out.
*Babchuk <30 pts*
Anton Babchuk was a nice surprise last season. Acquired in a mid-season trade with the Carolina Hurricanes, Babs was an under-the-radar guy, capitalizing on his first experience in the Western Conference. His offensive instincts and bomb of a shot snuck up on the West, as he put up 35 points in total – including 11 goals. His defensive contributions slowly improved as the season went on. It will be crucial for Babchuk to continue progressing on the defensive side, as he will not reach the 30-point mark this season. He’ll get power play time, which will allow him to reach acceptable point totals, but that booming shot will face greater defensive coverage this year, and he will no longer be sneaking up on Flames’ opponents. Missed shots and poor decision-making will follow, and he will see a set-back in production as a result. Let’s call it “Phaneuf 2.0.”
*Byron fills in, scores 10*
The Flames blogosphere is a buzz about Paul Byron, mostly for the wrong reasons. I’ve read plenty of pieces that bash Byron as a prospect. What needs to be understood is that while he was an average prospect in the Sabres system, he's added to the mix in Calgary and immediately lands top-10 in the Flames' system. Of course, this reflects poorly on the Flames and isn't anything to marvel over, but it also means Byron is much closer to NHL minutes in Calgary. I expect there are still trades to come up front for the Flames prior to game 1 of the regular season. In concert with this will be Morrison's knee injury, which will create an opening for Byron as the Flames' first call-up on forward. He will fill in admirably in a depth role, notching 10+ goals in less than a full season with the big club.
*Brodie, Breen play entire year in Abbotsford*
I know it's fun to rehash Brodie's heroic training camp last season, and envision a stunning pre-season from Breen based on his improved play last season. On second thought: it's really not realistic for either to spend significant time with the big club. Brodie is a top prospect for the Flames, and by virtue of that, has had some unrealistic expectations placed on him for the coming year. Both of these prospects have improved steadily over the past year, but neither is a full-time NHLer as of today. I watched a handful of AHL games last season, and have kept a keen eye on the prospect games in Penticton. My assessment: neither Breen nor Brodie have stood out, which is what NHL calibre players should do in these settings. I expect both will be NHLers in years to come, but this won't be the year.
*Flames sit bottom-10 in goals against*
Over the summer, the Flames got younger and more mobile. You could argue they added skill, or improved depth, but the defensive play remains a huge question mark. In deleting two dependable players such as Langkow and Regehr while the goaltending position gets another year older, it's hard to see this team improving on its league-wide rank of 19th in goals against. This ranking may not get significantly worse, but expect CGY to land in the bottom-10 this season.
*Flames back into 8th place*
The result won't be far off the 2010-2011 campaign, but it will unfold in reverse. The Flames will explode out of the gate, and cool off drastically in the latter half of the season, backing into 8th place in the West. There will be playoffs, but like so many years before, not enough momentum leading into round one for any playoff success.
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
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