Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Rounds 6 & 7 Rankings - by Michael Fabrig

Round 6 (151-180)

151. Koblasa, Petr - RW - 15G, 7A; 22 points in 38 GP - HC Karlovy Vary U20 - Czech U20

152. Nelson, Logan - C - 23G, 39A; 62 points in 71 GP - Victoria Royals - WHL

153. Blandisi, Joseph - LW - 17G, 14A; 31 points in 68 GP - Owen Sound Attack - OHL

154. Marcantuoni, Matia - LW - 9G, 5A; 14 points in 25GP - Kitchener Rangers - OHL

155. Bartosak, Patrik - G - 25 GP, 2.74, .915 SV% - Red Deer Rebels - WHL

156. Fejes, Hunter - LW - 38G, 40A; 78 points in 55 GP - Shattuck St. Mary's Midget Prep - USHS

157. Rupert, Ryan - C - 17G, 31A; 48 points in 63 GP - London Knights - OHL

158. Farley, Austin - LW - 28G, 31A; 59 points in 51 GP - Fargo Force - USHL

159. Curcuruto, Gianluca - D - 3G, 13A; 16 points in 63 GP - Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds - OHL

160. Carrick, Trevor - D - 6G, 13A; 19 points in 68 GP - Mississauga St. Michael's Majors - OHL

161. Collier, Brendan - LW - 6G, 11A; 17 points in 8 GP - Malden Catholic High - USHS

162. Quenneville, Peter - RW - 31G, 50A; 81 points in 53 GP - Sherwood Park Crusaders - AJHL

163. Corbett, Cody - D - 6G, 20A; 26 points in 54 GP - Edmonton Oil Kings - WHL

164. Montgomery, Jake - 20G, 38A; 58 points in 39 GP - Shattuck St. Mary's Midget Prep - USHS

165. Andersson, Sebastian - G - 12 GP, 1.72, .937 S% - Timrå J20 - SuperElit

166. Bradley, Cody - LW - 7G, 4A; 11 points in 16 GP - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL

167. Culkin, Ryan - D - 6G, 19A; 25 points in 60 GP - Québec Remparts - QMJHL

170. Hodges, Steven - C - 21G, 25A; 46 points in 72 GP - Victoria Royals - WHL

171. Bayreuther, Gavin - D - 14G, 20A; 34 points in 29 GP - Holderness School - USHS

172. Fernholm, Simon - D - 3G, 12A; 15 points in 47 GP - Huddinge IK J20 - SuperElit

173. DeBlouw, Matt - C - 11G, 22A; 33 points in 58 GP - Muskegon Lumberjacks - USHL

174. Willcox, Reece - D - 5G, 18A; 23 points in 52 GP - Merritt Centennials - BCHL

175. Arzamastsev, Zakhar - D - 0G, 6A; 6 points in 10 GP - Kuznetskie Medvedi - MHL

176. Karterud, Jørgen - RW - 9G, 13A; 22 points in 13 GP - Vålerenga - Norway

177. Hjärpe, Björn - LW - 14G, 24A; 38 points in 46 GP - Södertälje J20 - SuperElit

178. Nielsen, Jonatan - D - 5G, 4A; 9 points in 38 GP - Linköping J20 - SuperElit

179. McKay, Ryan - G - 35GP, 2.18, .920 SV% - Greenbay Gamblers - USHL

180. Kurker, Sam - RW - Stats unavailable

Round 7 (181-210)

181. De Jersey, Paul - RW - 41G, 57A; 98 points in 59 GP - Prince George Spruce Kings - BCHL

182. Gunnarsson, Daniel - D - 3G, 4A; 7 points in 46 GP - Luleå - Elitserien

183. Kamaev, Denis - LW - 21G, 34A; 55 points in 67 GP - Rouyn-Noranda Huskies - QMJHL

184. Volek, Dominik - RW - 14G, 18A; 32 points in 70 GP - Regina Pats - WHL

185. Nilsson, Jacob - LW - 4G, 11A; 15 points in 30 GP - Tingsryd J20 - SuperElit

186. Kerfoot, Alex - C - 25G, 44A; 69 points in 51 GP - Coquitlam Express - BCHL

187. Smith, Colin - C - 35G, 50A; 85 points in 72 GP - Kamloops Blazers - WHL

188. Brown, Connor - RW - 25G, 28A; 53 points in 68 GP - Erie Otters - OHL

189. Gustavsson, Victor - LW - 0G, 2A; 2 points in 2 GP - Huddinge IK - SWE-1

190. Magee, Brandon - C - 23G, 24A; 47 points in 65 GP - Victoria Royals - WHL

191. Clarke, Michael - RW - 15G, 21A; 36 points in 68 GP - Windsor Spitfires - OHL

192. Beauvillier, Francis - C - 23G, 11A; 34 points in 67 GP - Rimouski Oceanic - QMJHL

193. Richardson, Evan - C - 19G, 36A; 55 points in 48 GP - Powell River Kings - BCHL

194. Chyzyk, Bryn - LW - 28G, 21A; 49 points in 57 GP - Fargo Force - USHL

195. Rasmusson, Jens - C - 6G, 1A; 7 points in 6 GP - Södertälje J18 - J18 Allsvenskan

196. Stoick, Gavin - D - 2G, 4A; 6 points in 32 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL

197. McKee, Mike - D - 2G, 17A; 19 points in 59 GP - Lincoln Stars - USHL

198. Dotchin, Jake - D - 3G, 16A; 19 points in 64 GP - Owen Sound Attack - OHL

199. Leslie, Zack - D - 2G, 15A; 17 points in 65 GP - Guelph Storm - OHL

200. Moroz, Mitchell - RW - 16G, 9A; 25 points in 66 GP - Edmonton Oil Kings - WHL

201. Pelech, Adam - D - 2G, 18A; 20 points in 44 GP - Erie Otters - OHL

202. Uldall, Bjørn - D - 9G, 9A; 18 points in 30 GP - Herning II - Denmark2

203. Khatsei, Arseni - LW - 10G, 5A; 15 points in 36 GP - MHC Spartak - MHL

204. Björklund, Gustav - C/RW - 9G, 5A; 14 points in 13GP - Södertälje SK - SuperElit

205. Janmark Nylén, Mattias - C/LW - 23G, 38A; 61 points in 40 GP - AIK J20 - SuperElit

206. Nanne, Lou - LW - 7G, 13A; 20 points in 20 GP - Team Southwest - USHS

207. Johnson, Adam - LW - 9G, 8A; 17 points in 21 GP - Hibbing-Chisholm High - USHS

208. Nättinen, Topi - C - 15G, 28A; 43 points in 40 GP - JYP U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga

209. Thomson, Ben - LW - 11G, 30A; 41 points in 67 GP - Kitchener Rangers - OHL

210. Nykopp, Thomas - LW - 13G, 15A; 28 points in 46 GP - Tri-City Storm - USHL

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Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Round 4 & 5 Rankings - by Michael Fabrig

ROUND 4 (91-120)

91. Korpisalo, Joonas - G - 28 GP, 2.04, .920 SV% - Jokerit U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga

92. Caggiula, Drake - C - 10G, 24A; 34 points in 25 GP - Stouffville Spirit - OJHL

93. Hudon, Charles - LW/C - 25G, 41A; 66 points in 59 GP - Chicoutimi Saguenéens - QMJHL

94. Bohman, Marcus - D - 10G, 20A; 30 points in 40 GP - MODO J20 - SuperElit

95. Ikonen, Henri - C - 17G, 28A; 45 points in 37 GP - KalPa U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga

96. Locke, Eric - C - 13G, 14A; 27 points in 31 GP - Saginaw Spirit - OHL

97. Nieves, Cristoval - C/LW - 2G, 8A; 10 points in 13 GP - Indiana Ice - USHL

98. Smith, Gemel - C - 21G, 39A; 60 points in 68 GP - Owen Sound Attack - OHL

99. Athanasiou, Andreas - C - 22G, 15A; 37 points in 63 GP - London Knights - OHL

100. Graham, Jesse - D - 4G, 39A; 43 points in 67 GP - Niagara IceDogs - OHL

101. Gusev, Nikita - LW - 30G, 40A; 76 points in 34 GP - CSKA-Krasnaja Armija Moskva - MHL

102. Bussières, Raphaël - LW - 21G, 23A; 44 points in 56 GP - Baie-Comeau Drakkar - QMJHL

103. Shore, Quentin - C - 8G, 2A; 10 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL

104. Stolarz, Anthony - G - 50 GP, 2.84, .920 SV% - Corpus Christi IceRays - NAHL

105. Griffith, Seth - C - 45G, 40A; 85 points in 68 GP - London Knights - OHL

106. Franson, Cain - C - 27G, 31A; 58 points in 70 GP - Vancouver Giants - WHL

107. Sandberg, Filip - C 14G, 20A; 34 points in 43 GP - HV71 J20 - SuperElit

108. Nilsson, Ludvig - C/LW - 16G, 16A; 32 points in 47 GP - Timrå J20 - SuperElit

109. Cooper, Brian - D - 6G, 18A; 24 points in 55 GP - Fargo Force - USHL

110. Blujus, Dylan - D - 7G, 27A; 34 points in 66 GP - Brampton Battalion - OHL

111. Stepan, Zach - C - 22G, 43A; 65 points in 50 GP - Shattuck St. Mary's Midget Prep - USHS

112. Pearson, Tanner - 37G, 54A; 91 points in 60 GP - Barrie Colts - OHL

113. Holland, Rhett - D - 3G, 7A; 10 points in 47 GP - Okotoks Oilers - AJHL

114. Kilnar, Ales - RW - 28G, 23A; 51 points in 39 GP - HC Vitkovice U20 - Czech U20

115. Brown, Travis - D - 7G, 24A; 31 points in 66 GP - Moose Jaw Warriors - WHL

116. Blugers, Teodors - C - 24G, 64A; 88 points in 51GP - Shattuck St. Mary's Midget Prep - USHS

117. Lauridsen, Kristoffer - C - 21G, 12A; 33 points in 25 GP - Herning II - Denmark2

118. Michaelson, A.J. - C - 6G, 14A; 20 points in 53 GP - Waterloo Black Hawks - USHL

119. Ullberg, Richard - G - 23 GP, 2.36, .901 SV% - SaiPa - SM-liiga

120. Djoos, Christian - D - 3G, 21A; 24 points in 40 GP - Brynäs J20 - SuperElit

ROUND 5 (121-150)

121. Osnovin, Vyacheslav - C - 7G, 18A; 25 points in 45 GP - Belie Medvedi Chelyabinsk - MHL

122. Andrighetto, Sven - LW/RW - 36G, 38A; 74 points in 62 GP - Rouyn-Noranda Huskies - QMJHL

123. Czarnik, Austin - C - 10G, 27A; 37 points in 40 GP - Miami Uni. (OH) - NCAA

124. Görtz, Max - RW - 2G, 3A; 5 points in 18 GP - Färjestad - Elitserien

125. Jevpalovs, Nikita - RW - 8G, 13A; 21 points in 58 GP - HK Riga - MHL

126. Duane, Kevin - 29G, 24A; 53 points in 29 GP - Brunswick Prep - USHS

127. Wilson, Tom - RW - 9G, 18A; 27 points in 49 GP - Plymouth Whalers - OHL

128. Barber, Riley - RW/C - 5G, 6A; 11 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL

129. Nemec, Eric - LW - 17G, 17A; 34 points in 34 GP - HC Vitkovice U20 - Czech U20

130. Kukan, Dean - D - 5G, 16A; 21 points in 42 GP - Luleå J20 - SuperElit

131. Besse, Grant - LW - 40G, 35A; 75 points in 25 GP - Benilde-St. Margaret's High - USHS

132. Plutnar, Michal - D - 4G, 9A; 13 points in 62 GP - Tri-City Americans - WHL

133. Rupert, Matt - 12G, 23A; 35 points in 48 GP - London Knights - OHL

134. Walters, Nick - D - 6G, 12A; 18 points in 62 GP - Everett Silvertips - WHL

135. Mermis, Dakota - 5G, 22A; 27 points in 60 GP - Green Bay Gamblers - USHL

136. Beran, Matej - C - 22G, 39A; 61 points in 68 GP - Prince Edward Island Rocket - QMJHL

137. Stephenson, Chandler - C - 22G, 20A; 42 points in 55 GP - Regina Pats - WHL

138. Iafrate, Max - D - 6G, 10A; 16 points in 62 GP - Kitchener Rangers - OHL

139. Opperman, Grant - LW/RW - RW - 13G, 26A; 39 points in 21GP - Team Northwest - USHS

140. Rotolo, Michael - G - 22 GP, 2.15, .922 SV% - Green Bay Gamblers - USHL

141. Lipsbergs, Roberts - C - 14G, 14A; 28 points in 58 GP - HK Riga - MHL

142. Axman, Joakim - LW - 26G, 6A; 32 points in 22 GP - Valbo HC - SWE-2

143. Basso, Alex - D - 9G, 27A, 36 points in 44 GP - Sarnia Sting - OHL

144. Parisi, Thomas - D - 12G, 19A; 31 points in 37 GP - New Hampshire Jr. Monarchs - EJHL

145. Bischoff, Jake - D - 4G, 7A; 11 points in 21 GP - Team North - USHS

146. Fröberg, Linus - C - 17G, 35A; 52 points in 43 GP - Färjestad J20 - SuperElit

147. Vasilyev, Valeri - D - 1G, 1A; 2 points in 18 GP - MHC Spartak - MHL

148. Fox, Dane - C - 10G, 12A; 22 points in 28 GP - Erie Otters - OHL

149. Krutikov, Yevgeni - RW - 13G, 16A; 29 points in 53 GP - MHC Spartak - MHL

150. Karlsson, Erik - C/LW - 14G, 19A; 33 points in 47 GP - Frölunda J20 - SuperElit

Monday, June 18, 2012

Common Sense Prevails at the Draft

Drafting based on need or position is ridiculous. If any GM in the league is advocating for this strategy, they are wasting the efforts and money committed for over 8 months of scouting each year.

First off, in order to address team needs, there is a focus on short-term organizational weaknesses. Yet, the draft typically brings NHL calibre players to the big leagues in 2-5 years. So, if an NHL team were to draft based on need, they wouldn't actually fill the void that's lacking in the line-up. Therefore, they've used bias to settle for a player, when in fact they won't even solve the immediate issues on their hockey team.

Secondly, you must draft the most skilled player available because ANY other attribute can be readily found on the free agent market and by way of acquisition. So, to every hockey reporter in the country: why must you ask management teams if they are drafting the best player available? Even if they aren't, what answer will you get every time? It sure won't be this:

"This guy we ranked 10th is a world class player and our scouts spent 70 combined hours scouting him. However, he plays LW and we could use a C, so we went with the guy we ranked 17th."

In terms of prioritizing player characteristics, NHL calibre role players with character and work ethic can be easy to acquire in other ways. So it's not necessary to draft high "character" players. Plain and simple: you have to draft your own skill. Skill is not usually made available in the market, and these assets can be traded to address team needs down the road. Far as I can see, Matt Pelech, Krys Chucko and John Negrin had plenty of "character."

Outside of severe personality issues, you have to be willing to take risks on smaller players, or those with deficiencies that can be taught. If the development of these players takes longer, so be it, but you must ensure the players groomed in the system have the potential to become impact players in the big leagues.

In the later rounds, I'm all for taking "flyers" on players. Don't shy away from more risky picks with higher upside. Rather than picking sure-fire NHLers based on size and character, there should be a willingness to draft "project" players in the 3-7th rounds. These selections may have a reduced chance of making the NHL in the short term, but could become high impact players further down the road. Feaster's scouting staff took a step in this direction last summer, drafting 5'6 130 pound winger John Gaudreau in the 4th round. In his freshman season with Boston College, Gaudreau scored 44 pts in 44 games, one point less than teammate (and current NHLer) Chris Kreider, while helping lead Boston College to a championship.

Here's a Rinknet report I filed on Brendan Leipsic, a smaller draft eligible player that the Flames could target:

Scouting report: Brendan Leipsic (Centre, Portland Winterhawks)

5'9 175 lbs. Birthdate: 5-19-1994

NHL comparable (style): Kris Versteeg

Skating: A
Shooting: B+
Puck Control: A-
Physicality: B
Play away from puck: B
Hockey sense: B+

Overall rating: B+

GP: 65
Goals: 28
Assists: 30
Points: 58
PIM: 82
(+/-): +16

Comments: Leipsic's offensive skills are impressive. In particular, he's able to use his speed and surprising strength to drive the opposition crazy. Brendan's willingness to battle is a major asset, especially for a smaller player. He doesn't shy away from the physical side of the game. His hands in tight are impressive, as he can ready himself for a shot very quickly in traffic. He is crafty with the puck on his stick.

There are areas that could use some work. He has a tendency to "run around," throwing his body at everything and chasing the puck carrier. He would be better served to angle players off and use his stick more frequently, so he won't be caught out of position. Also, he's prone to long shifts, so his play drops off in the last 10-15 seconds before he heads to the bench.

Having said that, his weaknesses are easy to teach, and could simply turn around with age and maturity. The Winterhawks' loss of Bartschi and Rattie for next season will elevate Leipsic's ice-time and he will be relied on more heavily as a leader. This should be great for his development. Presumably, he's ranked lower because of his size. In Leipsic, I'd expect to be getting a future top-9 forward. If he can add some weight and take a step forward next season, his NHL upside could be even higher than that.

The skill is there, he just needs to work on the finer details of the game. If he's still available, I'd recommend the Flames take a hard look at Leipsic in the 3rd round.

Development

To me, the most important factor in any organization is player development. No matter what round a player is drafted in, he isn't going to become a quality NHL player without proper mentorship and development. I think this is becoming more and more apparent. The reality is, there are very subtle differences between teenagers on the draft floor. Whether he's selected at 14th overall or 114th overall, you won't have success with the player if he isn't brought along in the right environment. The best example of first class development is the Detroit Red Wings. Many of their stars are former late draft picks (5-7th rounds) and have become superstars in the league in recent years. Clearly, this is more about development than the kid's original drafting position.

The Red Wings gradual, patient approach puts confidence in young players. They are introduced to new challenges slowly, and Red Wing prospects are "over cooked" in the AHL before getting called up. This allows them to mature slowly and build offensive confidence as a pro, rather than being "thrown to the wolves." The Wings don't have a better chance than any other team of drafting a top player, but young players certainly benefit from developing in that system long-term.

Here's the Coles notes version:

1. Draft ONLY by skill
2. Take gambles in the later rounds
3. Put more emphasis on development. In turn, you'll become less dependent on projecting the careers of hockey players in their teens.

Should be a fun week!

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Third Round Rankings - by Michael Fabrig

61. Rensfeldt, Ludvig - LW/RW - 22G, 21A; 43 points in 58 GP - Sarnia Sting - OHL

62. LaLeggia, Joey - D - 11G , 27A; 38 points in 43 GP - Univ. of Denver - NCAA

63. MacEachern, Mackenzie - LW - 42G, 48A; 90 points in 29 GP - Brother Rice Warriors - USHS

64. Winther, Michael - C - 34G, 24A; 56 points in 71 GP - Prince Albert Raiders - WHL

65. Samuelsson, Henrik - C/RW - 7G, 16A; 23 points in 28 GP - Edmonton Oil Kings - WHL

66. Vainonen, Mikko - D - 7G, 11A; 18 points in 38 GP - HIFK U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga

67. Leipsic, Brendan - C - 28G, 30A; 58 points in 65GP - Portland Winter Hawks - WHL

68. Walker, Nathan - LW - 14G, 6A; 20 points in 14 GP - HC Vitkovice U20 - Czech U20

69. Fournier, Dillon - D - 9G, 29A; 38 points in 52 GP - Rouyn-Noranda Huskies - QMJHL

70. O'Regan, Danny - C - 3G, 2A; 5 points in 7 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL

71. Skjei, Brady - D - 3G, 9A; 12 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL

72. Lehtonen, Mikko - D - 8G, 19A; 27 points in 39GP - TPS U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga

73. Hart, Brian - RW - 29G, 32A; 61 points in 27 GP - Phillips Exeter Academy - USHS

74. Kulak, Brett - D - 9G, 15A; 24 points in 72 GP - Vancouver Giants - WHL

75. Barabanov, Alexander - LW - 18G, 21A; 39 points in 48 GP - SKA-1946 St. Petersburg - MHL

76. Gavrus, Artur - RW - 15G, 22A; 37 points in 45 GP - Owen Sound Attack - OHL

77. Zaar, Daniel - RW - 14G, 24A; 38 points in 44 GP - Rögle BK J20 - SuperElit

78. Filippov, Alexei - LW - 16G, 8A; 24 points in 45 GP - Belie Medvedi Chelyabinsk - MHL

79. Finn, Matt - D - 10G, 37A; 47 points in 61 GP - Guelph Storm - OHL

80. Beattie, Matt - RW - 39G, 34A; 73 points in 28 GP - Exeter High - USHS

81. Gordon, Coda - LW - 30G, 23A; 53 points in 66 GP - Swift Current Broncos - WHL

82. Calnan, Chris - RW - 28G, 27A; 55 points in 29 GP - Noble & Greenough School - USHS

83. Toninato, Dominic - C - 27G, 34A; 61 points in 25 GP - Duluth East High - USHS

84. McCabe, Jake - D - 3G, 9A; 12 points in 26 GP - Univ. of Wisconsin - NCAA

85. Kulmala, Rasmus - C - 1G, 1A; 2 points in 25 GP - TPS - SM-liiga

86. Sieloff, Patrik - D - 0G, 2A; 2 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL

87. Tikkinen, Niklas - D - 8G, 15A; 23 points in 39 GP - Blues U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga

88. Zulinick, Morgan - C - 24G, 42A; 66 points in 57 GP - Salmon Arm Silverbacks - BCHL

89. Larsson, Fredric - D - 1G, 3A; 4 points in 14 GP - Brynäs J20 - SuperElit

90. Matteau, Stefan - LW - 6G, 4A; 10 points in 18 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL

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Sunday, June 17, 2012

Trade them all, but not without a plan

(@Takes2toTanguay is a new contributor at Dome Ice Advantage. Have a read and discuss with him on Twitter. Also, he lives in DC, so be sure to ask him what the hell draws him to the Calgary Flames when you get a chance)

It's beginning to look like Jay Bouwmeester will be dealt. Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington could be possible destinations, as you'd expect they are seeking a top pairing defender. Would I trade him? Absolutely not. Trading Jay Bouwmeester would hurt this team and would create an insurmountable hole on the blueline. If the speculation is true, Feaster must know something we don't. If he can somehow get 2 top pairing defensemen in Calgary this summer, then by all means trade Bouwmeester. Unloading Jay at the draft would indicate that Feaster will be throwing some serious, serious dough at Parise and/or Suter - a bad gamble without a back-up plan.

Bouwmeester is always under some sort of scrutiny for his contract and lack of point production. People need to realize that he was utilized for his defensive skills rather than his offensive skills. I really want to see what he can do under a different coach and system. If the Flames manage to trade him, they better have a plan or there will be trouble. You cannot trade from weakness, and defense is serious weakness on this squad. I find it hard to believe that the Flames would get fair value in a trade for Bouwmeester. He adds value to the team, especially in a “win now” mode. If they do trade him, I’d hope Feaster can get a top 6 centre or a cheaper top pairing defender. The team is not in a position to trade their best defender for picks/mid-level prospects. So the question remains: do other teams GMs value Bouwmeester enough to deal a top-6 centre or a cheaper top pairing defender?

Henrik Karlsson is another guy that could and should be dealt. With Irving showing us a glimpse of his potential and Karri Ramo tearing it up in the KHL, Henrik Karlsson has ran his course here and for obvious reasons. He was a decent experiment, but it just never worked out for him. Not a goaltender with zero potential, he just needs an opportunity elsewhere.

Anton Babchuk would help any team’s power play and could help solidify a team who is looking for a 5/6 defenseman that can contribute offensively, but that's about it. If the Flames have any plans to upgrade their power play presence on the blue-line (and they should), I'd expect Babchuk is on his way out of town.

Matt Stajan, I would keep. I never thought I would say that, but the Flames continue to lack depth at his position. It’s clear he never truly found himself in this city. We’ve seen times where he looks like a 50+ point player and times where he looks like he's never played an NHL game before. Like a lot of players, I feel Brent Sutter didn’t utilize him the way he should have. Under a different system/coaching style, he could be effective. You'd expect the Flames are about to get even thinner up the middle this summer (especially if they aren't retaining Jokinen). This, along with a free agency pool looking rather shallow up the middle, trading away a potential #2 centreman with limited trade value might be an issue. If a team gives Feaster an offer for Stajan that makes sense, great, but you'd better be sure you have other options in the system before making that deal.

To me, there is no doubt that the Flames could ice the exact same line up and have different results under a new coaching scheme (St. Louis, LA as examples). However, you get the sense Feaster wants new faces on this team. Three years with the same line up and all we've seen is "just missed” excuses. It's not good enough. Jay Feaster and upper management would be the first to tell you it’s not good enough.

For one, I'm against a full rebuild. A gradual re-tool is simply more realistic. Trading away core guys might be the biggest mistake a team could make. It could pay off long-term, but Jarome Iginla and Miikka Kiprusoff hold more value to this squad than a blue chip prospect and a 1st rounder - especially for a team that’s in "win now” mode. It’s certainly possible that the Flames could trade Iginla and remain competitive, but trading away the face of the franchise would not make sense from a business perspective, let alone a hockey perspective. If Jarome confronts management, that’s a different story. Until that point, he won't be going anywhere.

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Saturday, June 16, 2012

Second Round Rankings - by Michael Fabrig

31. Di Giuseppe, Phil - C/LW - 11G , 15A; 26 points in 40 GP - Univ. of Michigan - NCAA


32. Lundberg, Emil - LW - 6G, 12A; 18 points in 51 GP - Södertälje - Allsvenskan


33. Dansk, Oskar - G - 28 GP, 2.82, .910 SV% - Brynäs J20 - SuperElit


34. Vatrano, Frankie - LW/C - 7G, 11A; 18 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL


35. Gaunce, Brendan - C - 28G, 40A; 68 points in 68 GP - Belleville Bulls - OHL


36. Slepyshev, Anton - LW - 4G, 3A; 7 points in 39 GP - Metallurg Novokuznetsk - KHL


37. Severson, Damon - D - 7G, 30A; 37 points in 56 GP - Kelowna Rockets - WHL


38. Baillargeon, Robbie - C - 14G, 34A; 48 points in 54 GP - Indiana Ice - USHL


39. Thrower, Dalton - D - 18G, 36A; 54 points in 66 GP - Saskatoon Blades - WHL


40. Kosmachuk, Scott - RW - 30G, 29A; 59 points in 67GP - Guelph Storm - OHL


41. Prokhorkin, Nikolai - LW - 1G, 1A; 2 points in 15 GP - CSKA Moskva - KHL


42. Djuse, Emil - D - 8G, 31A; 39 points in 35 GP - Östersunds IK - SWE-1


43. Shore, Devin - C - 29G, 29A; 58 points in 41 GP - Whitby Fury - OJHL


44. Spelling, Thomas - RW - 21G, 16A; 37 points in 33 GP - Herning - Denmark


45. Collberg, Sebastian - RW - 9G, 8A; 17 points in 21 GP - Frölunda J20 - SuperElit


46. Vesey, Jimmy - C - 48G, 43A; 91 points in 45 GP - South Shore Kings - EJHL


47. Cangelosi, Austin - C - 29G, 30A; 59 points in 53 GP - Youngstown Phantoms - USHL


48. Vikstrand, Mikael - D - 2G, 1A; 3 points in 47 GP - Mora - Allsvenskan


49. Gillies, Jon - G - 53 GP, 2.77, .915 SV% - Indiana Ice - USHL


50. Andersson, Calle - D - 12G, 24A; 36 points in 49 GP - Färjestad J20 - SuperElit


51. Ebert, Nick - D - 6G, 33A; 39 points in 66 GP - Windsor Spitfires - OHL


52. Bertschy, Christoph - C - 8G, 8A; 16 points in 32 GP - Bern - NLA


53. Khaira, Jujhar - LW - 29G, 50A; 79 points in 54 GP - Prince George Spruce Kings - BCHL


54. Zlobin, Anton - RW - 40G, 36A; 76 points in 66 GP - Shawinigan Cataractes - QMJHL


55. Zharkov, Daniil - LW - 23G, 13A; 36 points in 50 GP - Belleville Bulls - OHL


56. Törnkvist, Tobias - RW - 16G, 20A; 36 points in 48 GP - Rögle BK J20 - SuperElit


57. Sutter, Lukas - C - 28G, 31A; 59 points in 70 GP - Saskatoon Blades - WHL


58. Hinostroza, Vince - C - 20G, 24A; 44 points in 55 GP - Waterloo Black Hawks - USHL


59. Laughton, Scott - C - 21G, 32A; 53 points in 64 GP - Oshawa Generals - OHL


60. Bystrom, Ludvig - D - 0G, 1A; 1 point in 20 GP - MODO - Eliteserin


Follow Michael Fabrig on Twitter @gotitotti, follow posts @WiswellMRU

Thursday, June 14, 2012

First Round Rankings - by Michael Fabrig


1. Grigorenko, Mikhail - C/RW - 40G, 45A; 85 points in 59 GP - Quebec Remparts - QMJHL 

2. Yakupov, Nail - RW - 31G, 38A; 69 points in 42 GP - Sarnia Sting - OHL  

3. Galchenyuk, Alex - C - 31G, 52A; 83 points in 68 GP ('10-11) - Sarnia Sting - OHL 

4. Forsberg, Filip - LW - 8G, 9A; 17 points in 43 GP - Leksand - Allsvenskan

5. Lindholm, Hampus - D - 1G, 3A; 4 points in 20 GP - Rogle - Elitserien 

6. Teräväinen, Teuvo - RW - 11G, 7A; 18 points in 40 GP - Jokerit - SM-liiga  

7. Rielly, Morgan - D - 3G, 15A; 18 points in 18 GP - Moose Jaw Warriors - WHL

8. Hertl, Tomas - C - 12G, 13A; 25 points in 38 GP - HC Slavia Praha - Czech  

9. Girgensons, Zemgus - C/RW - 24G, 31A; 55 points in 49 GP -  Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL  

10. Matheson, Michael - D - 11G, 16A; 27 points in 53 GP - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL 

11. Åberg, Pontus - LW/RW - 8G, 7A; 15 points in 47 GP - Djurgården - Elitserien 

12. Määttä, Olli - D - 5G, 27A; 32 points in 58 GP - London Knights - OHL 

13. Pouliot, Derrick - D - 11G, 48A; 59 points in 72 GP - Portland Winter Hawks - WHL 

14. Murray, Ryan - D - 9G, 22A; 31 points in 46 GP - Everett Silvertips - WHL   

15. Dumba, Matthew - D - 20G, 37A; 57 Points in 69 GP - Red Deer Rebels - WHL

16. Trouba, Jacob - D - 4G, 14A; 18 points in 22 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL

17. Reinhart, Griffin - D - 12G, 24A; 36 points in 58 GP - Edmonton Oil Kings - WHL  

18. Kerdiles, Nicolas - C - 4G, 9A; 13 points in 18GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL 

19. Bozon, Timothé - LW - 36G, 35A; 71 points in 71 GP - Kamloops Blazers - WHL 

20. Vasilevski, Andrei - G - 27 GP, 2.23, .931 SV% - Tolpar Ufa - MHL

21. Koekkoek, Slater - D - 5G, 13A; 18 points in 26 GP - Peterborough Petes - OHL

22. Ceci, Cody - D - 17G, 43A; 60 points in 63 GP - Ottawa 67's - OHL 

23. Frk, Martin - RW - 16G, 13A; 29 points in 34GP - Halifax Mooseheads - QMJHL

24. Pokka, Ville - D - 0G, 3A; 3 points in 35 GP - Kärpät - SM-liiga 

25. Roy, Kevin - LW - 50G, 54A; 104 points in 59 GP - Lincoln Stars - USHL 

26. Lindell, Esa - D - 21G, 30A; 51 points in 48 GP - Jokerit U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga

27. Jankowski, Mark - C - 53G , 40A; 93 points in 57 GP - Stanstead College - Quebec Prep 

28. Subban, Malcolm - G - 39 GP, 2.50, .923 SV% - Belleville Bulls - OHL

29. Faksa, Radek - C - 29G, 38A; 67 points in 62 GP - Kitchener Rangers - OHL   

30. Schmaltz, Jordan - D - 7G, 28A; 35 points in 46 GP - Green Bay Gamblers - USHL


Thanks again to Michael for his insight. We will post his entire rankings (Rounds 2-7) on the site periodically as we approach the Draft. Follow Michael at @gotitotti for more discussion.

Follow posts on twitter @WiswellMRU

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Flames First Round Must-Haves by Michael Fabrig

Michael Fabrig (@gotitotti) was nice enough to contribute a list of his top first round prospects in the Flames' wheelhouse. Michael has a relationship with NHL scouts and does a ton of analysis on prospects. His insight on future NHLers is impressive. Have a read!


Choice 1: Tomas Hertl - C - 6'2" - HC Slavia Praha - Czech


Comparable: Derek Stepan


Reason: The Flames are lacking a high-end Centre; every team in the league wishes for a player like Hertl -- blessed size, skill, and most importantly -- acumen. Hertl projects to be a top-6 forward with abilities to be versatile on the wing. His Czech team did better than expected at the WJHC -- Hertl was the only draft-eligible to named the top-3 on his team. Hertl is a very smart player with high-end skills. I think Hertl's progression will continue, if it does, by next-year around, he'll be deemed a steal at 14.


Choice 2: Zemgus Girgensons - C - 6'2" - C - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL


Comparable: Ryan Kesler


Reason:  As a big factor why Brian Burke was convinced in Ryan Kesler's leadership, and ability to score and have a rugged presence, Girgensons seems so convincing that he plans to use to the same game-plan to get to the big leagues. Girgensons has a play-making side that is rather 'underrated'. The scouts that I've talked to are convinced that after a year at Vermont, he'll be more than ready to play in the NHL. After viewing his playoff performance, I was convinced that he could have scored more goals if it wasn't for the broken jaw. Girgensons makes a whole lot of sense as a Calgary Flame, he's big and skilled, and plays C! The question is -- will he be good enough to be a top-6? That question is why I had Hertl over Girgensons. I wouldn't be surprised if Girgensons, someday, becomes a captain somewhere in the NHL. Roberts Lipsbergs and Nikita Jevpalovs are 2 other Latvians that are starting to put Latvian hockey on the board. Great to see Latvian hockey getting bigger and better.


Choice 3: Andrei Vasilevski - G - 6'3" - Tolpar UFA - MHL. 


Comparable: Tuukka Rask


Reason: Simply put, the Flames are, inevitably, going to have to start thinking and finding a way to have a future goalie after Kipper. Leland Irving and Karri Ramo look like good corner-stones to bank-on, but, at this point, they're not proven that they are the guys of the future. Vasilevski is blessed technically; his in-tangibles make it very convincing to see that he will be in the NHL one day. The Russian-factor is something that might turn-away some teams from drafting him; I haven't seen a Russian Goaltender look this promising in a long time. 


Choice 4: Michael Matheson - D - 6'2" - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL


Comparable - John Carlson


Reason: Michael Matheson has the size and shot to eventually be a great top-4 d-man in the NHL. Consistency has been the biggest knack that scouts have on Matheson. His shot, ability to jump in the play, and silky-smooth skating ability are easy enough to take a stab at the former Lac Saint-Louis Lions scoring star. Matheson was dominant in the USHL playoffs -- he had 4 goals in 5 games. His pedigree showcases a player that rises to the occasion come playoff-time. Playing with Boston College next year will help his game mature; his defensive work with get a great challenge, the eventuality, it will let him mature there. His offensive abilities are very profound; I think Matheson will take these intangibles with him when eventually comes to the NHL -- at that point, teams will be salivating. You picture Matheson, Giordano, T.J. Brodie -- a great core that will make it hard for teams to deal with.


Choice 5: Pontus Aberg - RW - 5'11" - Djurgarden - Elitserien


Comparable: Mathias Tedenby


Reason: a scoring winger is something that adds huge value to a team. Tedenby is faster and has more skill -- Aberg has a better ability to shoot the puck like a sniper. With a majority of Aberg's points coming in the first-half of the season, its scary to think what his point totals would have been if it wasn't for the shoulder injury. We've seen what that has done to guys like Hall and Kesler in the big leagues, and what it had done to their statistics. Aberg is a bit of a risky pick -- but with the organization very shallow with Right Winger's, taking a guy like Aberg could fast-track the player to not only come in the league, but, make a positive contribution. 


Choice 6: Derrick Pouliot - D - 5'11" - Portland Winter Hawks - WHL


Comparable: Erik Karlsson


Reason: No doubt, Derrick Pouliot is a game-breaker. His offensive skills are at the same level as Morgan Rielly. Watching the Top Prospects game, for me, the guy that really impressed me was Pouliot. The defensive side to his game is very questionable at times. At the end of the day, his position is a defense -- a team is drafting with the expectation for him to play that position. I think his offense, skating ability, and the ability to join the rush at the right times make him a catch. I think Pouliot has more transferable skills than Murray and Dumba -- hence, why I have him higher. He has some natural abilities that will separate himself from other competitors for a roster spot. I personally think that Dumba's Phanuef-life approach to the game will quickly wash away -- he's 5'11". Ryan Murray, like Jay Boumeester, has tremendous skating and longevity to probably be an Iron-Man in the NHL, but I don't see him having a wow-factor. It's like guys like Victor Hedman, Braydon Coburn, and Luke Schenn -- guys that when looking back, you might have not taken them so high if you knew how they'd translate in the NHL.


Thanks again to Michael for his contributions. He will have his full rankings (rounds 1-7!) up on the site soon. You can follow him on twitter @gotitotti.


Follow posts on twitter @WiswellMRU

Monday, January 16, 2012

Direction, You Say?

What's with questioning the "direction" of a team when it acquires a skilled, top-6 player? If any organization is turning down a shot at a proven scorer at 29 years old in order to stay true to the "direction" of the franchise, they need to get a new direction. In any industry, competitiveness is essential, regardless of the 5-year plan.

Mike Cammalleri has a high skill level. The Flames do not. He's performed well in the playoffs within the last two seasons. The Flames haven't even qualified. He's a proven top-6 guy and adds another weapon to the PP. And most of all, he was underachieving this season, and therefore available in the market. Are the Flames in a position to pass up on this guy because they're in a soft rebuild (or "re-tool")? No chance. 

In terms of direction, since when is a 29-year old winger over-the-hill? This is the big leagues, where most players don't make a significant impact until age 24-25. The age component of the deal is entirely reasonable, especially when shedding a 30-year old in the process, with a contract that was arguably worse (double the term). To me, it's a win: a wash in terms of age, for more skill and fewer years. And no, I don't expect him to put up 80 points in a Flames sweater again. I could certainly live with 65-70 points in the next two seasons, however.

On top of all the asset banter, professional hockey is about entertainment, and Cammalleri is the type of player fans come to see.

Now, for the other assets that were sent packing...

Patrick Holland is a heck of an overachieving 7th-round prospect, but how much has he elevated his NHL potential in this time frame? Could he be a top-6 forward in the NHL one day? Maybe. More likely, however, he's a 3rd or 4th line utility player. Guys like that are readily available, and the Flames have plenty of them in the system as is.

Losing a second round pick (in 2013) is a concern -  no question... But you'd expect there will be a number of players made available at the deadline (Stempniak, Moss, Morrison, Jackman...?) for contending teams that *could* bring about a small handful of 3rd-5th round picks. Quantity over quality is a decent consolation prize when it comes to draft picks.

THAT THROW-IN GOALIE WITH A FUNNY NAME

Originally, I was skeptical about Karri Ramo as a "throw in" for the deal. I figured it was Feaster re-acquiring a former TB prospect as his reclamation project. Ramo is certainly a project, but as it turns out, he may not be far off in terms of everyday contributions at the NHL level. Known as a top goalie in the KHL, with a back-to-back goals against avg of 1.97, he's worth the gamble. And at only 25 years old, this "throw-in" goaltender may bring much more:

http://m.torontosun.com/2012/01/13/goalie-acquired-in-cammalleri-deal-could-spell-end-of-kipper-with-flames

Rebuild, Re-tool or contend, there will always be a need to add skilled, proven players to the line-up. Just ask the Oilers or Islanders. Cap space notwithstanding, I could see Cammalleri fitting in on 25 of the 30 teams in the league. You can scout and draft well, calling it "organizational direction" or "progress." Yet, if you're not constantly improving your team's competitiveness, free agents will sign elsewhere, and your former first-round picks will diminish into obscurity.

Welcome back, Cammo.

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Monday, November 28, 2011

Calgary Flames Quarterly Report

This has been a painfully predictable start in the eyes of many Flames followers, yet one theme prevails atop the struggles: the Flames are bad, but not THIS bad. We could point to a lack of skill, but that argument no longer carries weight. The likes of Nashville, Phoenix and Minnesota seem to be getting by with solid goaltending and a lack of high-end skill. So why are the Flames in 13th place? Here are a number of explanations for it.

1. A lack of sustained back-pressure from the forwards has allowed opposing players significant time and space with the puck. Without any back-pressure, the opposition isn't forced to make quick (and often poor) decisions with the puck. As a result, the D men are forced to attack, rather than playing a more conservative contain game, which leads to poor pinches and odd man rushes against. Basically, a lack of defensive pressure and support from the forwards makes the D men - and the scoreboard - look atrocious.

2. While it may work in short spurts, heavy dependence on goaltending is unsustainable. Both Kiprusoff and Karlsson have been stellar, but these contributions merely mask shortcomings in team performance. A number of wins (vs. Colorado especially) were the result of timely goaltending, whereas a segment of tight losses could have been blowouts (vs. Buffalo, Detroit, St Louis) if not for steady netminding from the tandem. So, could it be worse for this team? Actually, it could. Not to say you shouldn't expect your goaltender to be good, but when you allow the other team to come at you in waves, you won’t win with any regularity.

3. The Flames' horrendous power play has nothing to do with a lack of skill or an aging team. In fact, it's more the result of a brutal break-out. There is a lack of urgency and flow leaving the zone. The feet are not moving, and the D simply throw the puck into the corner, where the forwards fail to outnumber the opposition in puck battles. Why isn't the *extra* man utilized here? Once they gain the zone (if ever), puck-movement is forced and predictable, as the likes of Iginla, Tanguay and Bourque stand around, waiting for the play to come to them. When the feet aren't moving, the opposition is able to stand still and block shooting lanes with ease. Once the PP quarterbacks (Giordano, Bouwmeester) lose patience with the lack of flow, they casually throw the puck right into some shin pads, and the squad is forced to reset.                                                                                                        
4. Poor offensive AND defensive efforts from the top line is hand-cuffing this team. If the Flames continue to rely on Joker & Glencross to produce offense against the likes of Datsyuk and Toews every game, 13th place will be best-case for the team. Based on matchups, the top-line should be potting one goal per game. At this rate, the #2 “shutdown” line can compliment these heavy hitters with some production at key times. Instead, the players facing the most difficult match-ups (#2) are also most effective in the offensive zone. To me, that comes down to hustle. We can give it a rest with the “Iggy deserves better” and “send him to a contender” until he starts performing again.
Over the last two seasons, it has become very clear that Sutter and Iginla have some philosophical differences. If the captain doesn’t play within the team structure at age 34, who will be held accountable to it? If the message applies to everyone but the face of the franchise, what message is the organization sending? Have a listen.

Brent & Iggy, courtesy Fan960:
http://video.flames.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=11&id=136995

5. For hockey fans, the phrase “dump and chase” is looked on unfavorably, and attributed to offensively challenged teams. In reality, some of the league’s elite teams use this strategy to maintain puck possession (Vancouver, Detroit). Through more intelligent D&C execution, they are able to re-gain control of the puck and maintain the offensive flow.
Sample 1 - Flames player: “my feet are not moving. My linemates’ feet are not moving. I will *fire* the puck around the boards (hopefully past the goalie’s stick) so we can battle the D men and *hope* to get the puck back.”
Sample 2 - DET/VAN player: “I have the puck and my teammates are changing OR not moving their feet. I will *hold* onto the puck and generate some speed for an extra 2-3 seconds, until a teammate is heading north with speed. I will then flip the puck *softly* into the opposite corner (where the goaltender cannot retrieve it) as my teammate continues on a straight path for the *bouncing* puck.”
By attacking the (often) flat-footed D men with speed and a direct path to the puck, there will be a greater chance of retrieval AND potential for confusion between the goaltender and the D men. Next time you see Detroit or Vancouver (especially in person), make a point of watching for this.
The Flames D&C actually involves throwing the puck away, with no speed, and hoping to get lucky with some physical play in the corner. Most of the time, it is rimmed around the boards and easily intercepted by the goaltender. From here, opposing D men can sweep around (with speed) and advance the puck. This is especially painful to watch on the power play.

6. This passive, perimeter offense looks like a bottom-feeder. Wrist shots to the crest from the outside (ahem, Bourque) make life pretty easy on the opposition. This is why every goaltender seems to have a bounce-back game when they face the Flames. More speed and physical assertiveness forces double-coverage, which opens up alternatives for outlet passes. A more aggressive forecheck -> opponent mistakes -> increased puck possession in scoring areas -> goals. This high-tempo offense needs to be utilized with more consistency, as illustrated in two 5-2 wins (in Minnesota, and at home vs Chicago).

THREE POSITIVES

1. Jokinen/Glencross consistency

2. Subtle youth movement
Horak, Byron, Backlund, Smith (sort of), Brodie: rewarded for solid/consistent play, filling in for veterans (Stajan/Morrison, Sarich and formerly Hagman) in replaceable roles. These youngsters not only bring speed and energy, but have proved to be very dependable. If Brent is able to rely on these players to play solid, significant minutes, the offensive totals will come. It may not involve elite-level talent, but the youth movement has begun in Calgary.

3. Rare prospect success
This will help cushion the blow after the next shutout loss to Minnesota or Nashville at home. While a handful of these prospects are still at least one year away, it’s encouraging to see this type of production out of not only former 1st round picks, but even 5th-7th round picks:

Sven Baertschi (Portland) 45 pts in 19 GP
Michael Ferland (Brandon) 42 pts in 28 GP
Greg Nemisz (AHL Abbotsford) 17 pts in 19 GP
Patrick Holland (Tri-City) 26 pts in 25 G
Max Reinhart (Kootenay) 31 pts in 23 GP
Johnny Gaudreau (Freshman, Boston College) 11 pts in 13 GP
Bill Arnold (Sophomore, Boston College) 14 pts in 13 GP
Markus Granlund (HIFK Helsinki) 11 pts in 19 GP, and a beautiful lacrosse goal:

As of today: Michael Ferland and Max Reinhart were named to Team Canada of the World Junior championships. Sven Baertschi was named to Team Switzerland. Here’s Assistant GM John Weisbrod on the announcements, courtesy Fan960:

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