At the conclusion of the 2010-2011 campaign, the Calgary Flames found themselves ranked 7th in the NHL in ‘Goals For,’ scoring 241 goals in total. Based on the recent history and limited top-end skill in the line-up, this trend is not likely to continue in the fall. 9-1 wins in Colorado and a vastly improved PP in the last half played a part in this statistic, but the most significant variable comes in bounce-back campaigns. The likes of Tanguay, Morrison, Glencross and Jackman all put up decent point totals, arguably beyond expectations. Can we expect these heightened contributions a second time around? If not, how much can we expect team totals to drop off by April 2012?
Please note that this exercise is intended to be a reasonable prediction only, and thus nowhere near an exact science. As such, career years and unforeseen factors (trades, long-term injuries, etc) will not, and cannot be accounted for. Quite simply, these projections serve as a snapshot-in-time. While reading, please use this phrase: The Flames can RELY on ____ to score ____ goals this season:
Tanguay (20), Backlund (15), Iginla (32)
Glencross (18), Jokinen (15), Bourque (24)
Hagman (10), Langkow (12), Moss (14)
Morrison (8), Stajan (6), Jackman (8)
Fill-in fwds (<40 games): Kostopoulos (4), P-L-L (1)
Forward goal total: 187
Bouwmeester (5), Giordano (8)
Butler (4), Sarich (2)
Carson (0), Babchuk (8)
Fill-in D (<40 games): Brodie (2), Wilson (2)
Defence goal total: 31
Based on these assumptions, the Flames are due to score 218 goals this season. A 33-goal setback may seem insignificant over 82 games, but it would likely bury the Flames in the bottom ten teams league-wide. What does this mean?
Kipper and friends finished 19th best in 'Goals Against' in 2010-2011, perhaps under the category of "not good." With our 'Goals For' estimate in mind, keeping the puck out of their own net will be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs moving forward. It is my belief the team underachieved defensively last season, and it will continue to be an uphill battle from here.
'Goals Against' will improve if...
A) the PK can bounce back from a tough season. The Flames gave up 48 goals when a man short, good for 22nd best in the NHL. You could also call it 9th worst, but who needs that type of negativity? A healthy Daymond Langkow may help the cause, as an upgrade over the likes of Stajan, Morrison, Kostopoulos et al on the PK. His face-off consistency has never been strong, but Langks has proven he can be a solid PK option in spite of this weakness. Bourque seems to be more effective alongside Langks in all areas, but his defensive play is arguably the most drastic example of this.
B) Kiprusoff improves his consistency: both 5on5 and in special teams scenarios. I continue to support Kiprusoff as a #1 goaltender, but the wild swings game-to-game were a concern last season. He would steal a 1-0 win in Nashville one night, and completely blow it in Detroit the next game. He would make an outstanding desperation save, before failing to make the next routine save. Here's hoping Karlsson can push him to be more consistent, but something tells me Kipper will once again play 70+ games, in another "off-year."
C) Mobility saves the day on D. The trend of recent years has been the sexy and seemingly overvalued "mobile, puck mover" on D. The loss of Regehr will hurt, no question. However, with the increased responsibility for Giordano and the additions of Butler and Carson to the blueline, you could argue this team is more equipped to "keep up" with the quicker forwards in the rugged west. The D corps may be easier to play against without Regehr, but if a mobile back-end is in fact more important in today's game, we could see a competent blueline this year... Of course, there is strong emphasis on the word "could."
The Flames seemingly over-achieved in the goal scoring category last winter, which means a significant step forward in defensive play will be the only tonic to avoid another year of mediocrity. The franchise threw out its brand-name jeans (Regehr) in favor of some Costco and Walmart alternatives (Butler, Carson). If the cheaper material doesn't fade within the first few months, the Flames will boast an understated, but effective style. Otherwise, it may be time to pull out that old pair of black cords... And nobody likes wearing cords.
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Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
The Erixon Escape & Other Dramatic Events
Let me break down the Tim Erixon situation in a slightly different way. Based on the countless “concerns” expressed by the Erixon camp so late in the process, it had nothing to do with not wanting to play in Calgary, and everything to do with playing for the New York Rangers. Did the player and his agent really think any team would allow their best prospect to go back into the draft after two solid years of development? The Erixon camp would have expected his rights to be dealt by the Flames. So, where do you trade his rights? To a team the player would actually sign with, otherwise the trade doesn’t get done. Did Feaster look to partner with the Rangers because he’s wanted to land Roman Horak for years? Not a chance. Tim and his agent made it difficult on the Flames for one reason: Erixon wanted to play in New York. He could have been traded to any of the other 29 teams, and you’re telling me it just happened to have been his birthplace, and his dad’s former team? I don’t buy it. If Tim was truly concerned about playing time and cap space, he would have been traded to and signed with the Oilers, Islanders or Panthers, NOT the New York Rangers. We’re talking about an organization that has a 7.5 million dollar defenseman playing in their farm system in order to make the dollars work under the cap. For whatever reason, Tim’s cap concerns disappeared as he signed on the dotted line in New York. The player had all of the leverage and bargaining power, and he used it to sign exactly where he wanted to play.
There’s a ton of Flames-bashing going on as a result of this. Simply put: when you offer a rookie the max contract allowed under the CBA, with select provisions to protect the player from AHL assignments and he still won’t sign, you do whatever you can to get some assets back for that player - which is exactly what Feaster did. I don’t blame the Flames for “waiting too long,” or the city for being an “undesirable playing destination” because I think both arguments are completely flawed. If your top young prospect appears concerned about the playing environment, you go to the 11th hour in an attempt to get the deal done – which is what Feaster did. You don’t just quit on the spot when you hear that a valued prospect is concerned about the “cap situation.” The trade itself? The team has two second-round picks it didn’t have before, and a mid-level prospect that has two years of development under his belt. By no means is it the ideal scenario, but I commend the Flames for making the best of a very tough situation. Good riddance Tiny Tim.
The additions of Craig Hartsburg and Jamie Pringle to the coaching staff will be important for the Flames down the road. By virtue of having a boatload of contracts off the books next offseason, and the impending buyouts/trades this June, the Flames will be a much younger team going forward. Let me remind everyone that trading Jarome Iginla is not the only way to get younger. With this process unfolding, it will be important to boast an experienced coaching staff, more suited to teaching than yelling and screaming. To me, that’s exactly what these two additions bring: an element of experience, with the skills and willingness to work with younger players. The other important factor in these hirings is familiarity, as Brent has worked with both coaches in his stints with Team Canada.
It will be interesting to see who the club will hire as AGM. If Feaster is looking for someone currently employed by another team, I expect he will have to wait until after the draft is complete. Makes sense, wouldn’t any organization be reluctant to have their management and scouts work an entire year leading up to the draft, just to take their knowledge and findings elsewhere before draft day? My preferred candidate would be Rick Dudley, given his past experience with JayFe, eye for young talent and recent availability. This may be a challenge, however; I don’t imagine Dudley is in any rush to take a demotion and work for his former AGM. Michel Goulet may be the more practical alternative. I expect we will hear about contract extensions for both Alex Tanguay and Henrik Karlsson within the next week. Just a hunch...
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Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Get Off Feaster's Keister
Last week’s announcements signalled a new direction for the Calgary Flames. Maybe not leaps and bounds off the beaten path, but a new direction nonetheless. The first of which was Jay Feaster’s subtle promotion to full-time General Manager. All of the criticism about the move has me scratching my head. It seems most were going to be unsatisfied unless the Flames hired one of Jim Nill or Ron Hextall. Let me start by saying: I’m not sure what the love affair with Hextall is, over any other former player in management. On the Nill front, it’s naive to think the Flames would have been the first to consider him for their vacant GM position. I expect he’s been contacted by a number of different teams over the years about a full-time gig as General Manager. You think he was holding out for a job in Calgary all these years? Not likely.
This fan base wanted change for the sake of change, which is a Darryl Sutter mentality: “Sign this guy... woops we underachieved... buy him out and sign this guy” or “Jimmy Playfair is our guy, nope lost to the Wings, It’s Keenan... No I hate that guy I’ll bring in my little brother to coach the team and pick on him.” New faces and turnover isn’t always the answer. Not to mention, do we know anything about Ron Hextall as a manager? Or are we simply impressed that he was the AGM when LA drafted Braydon Schenn at 5th overall? I don’t see how we can draw conclusions on any of these GM candidates, without first-hand evaluation of the individual. I’ll take Ken King’s appraisals and expertise over my own.
The second most prominent criticism of the move seems counter-intuitive as well. Why did the Flames wait to remove the “Acting” from Jay’s title? Well gee, everyone wants due diligence and for the team to take time to make the right decision, and yet there was ongoing “just give him the position already” chatter. How can these two views co-exist? Feaster wasn’t going to be handed the full-time gig as GM, as announced back in December. Ken King and Ownership made the decision to evaluate his contributions, while reviewing 3 managerial philosophy reports submitted by Feaster. You think Ken King had a quick skim through these reports and replied “Yup that’s fine, you’re our guy. We’ll inform the media in 5 months.” I’m sure there was some two-way dialogue, ownership doesn’t base decisions on convenience: “Well, he’s here anyway, so give him the job.” There was a process that was carried out, a plan that was approved, and the decision has been made. As a fan, that’s okay by me.
Does this mean I’m thrilled with Feaster as GM of the Calgary Flames? Of course not, how could I feel strongly one way or the other? When it comes to player trades, I’m prepared to formulate opinions on player trades and free agent signings, but I can’t pretend to know anything about what goes on behind closed doors in any boardroom in the NHL, and therefore no gut feel over management before any work has been done.
I share the same concerns as anyone else about Feaster’s track record: the Lecavalier signing, Brad Richards trade, and poor drafting record. I do, however, take solace in the fact that Jay is fourthcoming about these mistakes, and is able to pinpoint what should be done moving forward. Feaster never played the game, and doesn’t pretend to... but did anyone criticize Lou Lamoriello for his lack of professional playing experience? Most of my optimism for Jay’s promotion comes from a philosophical about-face. It wasn’t that Darryl Sutter didn’t understand hockey, or had a poor read on players. The issue was a top-heavy, autonomous structure by which decisions were made. This admission has been made by Ken King since Darryl's departure. From what I can gather, Darryl was an excellent hockey mind, and a brutal manager. The biggest change with this new regime will be the fundamental management of the organization. Jay will be more of a General Manager, and less of a straight up “hockey guy.” Former players that evolve into excellent businessmen and managers are a rare breed. Frankly, I’d rather have a manager with legal and business acumen formulating contracts and managing the team, while seeking input from “hockey guys” in the AGM or scouting positions for the expertise on developing and evaluating players. The new structure of the Calgary Flames was quoted as a “participative democracy,” something that was evidently lacking with the previous regime.
Do you think the supremacy of the Detroit Red Wings is entirely a result of Ken Holland’s playing experience? The Wings beefed up their scouting department, empowered secondary management resources like Jim Nill, and developed players from within. From what I can read, Holland is a fantastic manager because he manages. He doesn’t dictate, he doesn’t make trades or draft on a whim. He empowers strong resources in a number of different areas, in order to make sound, calculated decisions. I’m not aiming to convince anyone that Jay Feaster is a Ken Holland or Lou Lamoriello. All I can determine is that powerful, consistent organizations make joint decisions based on consensus.
The Glencross signing provided some reason for optimism. I wasn’t originally in favour of a Glencross return at all, based on his inflated market value that could have resulted in a 5 year deal worth 3+ million per. However, at 2.55 over 4 years, the cap hit is very manageable for a versatile player. Even if he pulls a Nik Hagman, or starts to regress as Rene Bourque has, 2.55 is not a toxic number for a 2nd or 3rd line contributor... and to think he will be earning less than the likes of Sarich, Stajan, Hagman and Kotalik next season puts the deal in perspective. Something tells me if this were Darryl’s deal, he would have hooked Glencross up with a Bourque-like deal: 5-6 years at 3.5 per with a no trade clause. Already, we’re seeing some steps in the right direction.
Obviously, the NMC for Glenny is a concern moving forward. Darryl set up this routine, making it difficult for Feaster to negotiate when over half the team has a no-move clause of some kind. I expect Tanguay’s demands will be similar: lesser dough, at a greater term and a NMC. It will be a tough pill to swallow, but I’d rather see Tanguay here and deal with the no-move consequences. When guys like Ales Kotalik, Olli Jokinen and Matt Stajan have some sort of no-move arrangement, it’s impossible to expect your first line winger to settle for any less security.
Jay’s stated philosophy, based on input and collaborative evaluation, brings the Flames much closer to that process. If you’re a believer in the phrase “two heads are better than one,” then there’s reason for optimism moving forward. As pinpointed by Rob Kerr of the Fan960, the Flames have quietly added 7 resources to their management and scouting ranks within the last year. Jay’s experience alongside Craig Conroy, Michel Goulet (Hall of Famer), Mike Holditch and an additional AGM -to-be-determined will bring a number of perspectives to the table, governed by Ken King and Flames’ ownership. So, while the announcements last week were not thrilling headline-stealers, I’m prepared to suggest the organization is in a better position than it was 6 months ago. Can’t wait for June and early July.
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Friday, May 6, 2011
My 2011-2012 Calgary Flames Roster
Everybody can enjoy pipe-dreams, but I’ve spent some time to pencil in what I consider to be a realistic line-up for the coming season. The team can sign a number of NCAA hopefuls out of college, and draft better than any team at the draft in Minnesota, but the immediate and material impact of these young players on the current roster would be limited - at best - for next season . Anyone who envisions otherwise isn’t being entirely realistic. From my standpoint, this team should look to upgrade in speed, while trying to get a tad younger on the back end. I will break down the transactions necessary, and the resulting roster – position by position.
FORWARDS
Re-sign Alex Tanguay - Somewhere in the neighbourhood of 3 million per year, or just over. Basically, he makes Jarome tick, so do what you can to keep him. He’s 30 years old, so he has at least a few years of solid hockey left. In other words, you can afford to keep him at a reasonable salary, but at multiple (2 or more) years. You might ask: how can you make cap space for his raise? Here are two ways.
Subtractions
This one is obvious and popular: Find somewhere for Ales Kotalik to play. The AHL, or a team in Russia. He has threatened to bolt to Europe already, so I don’t imagine that will take much convincing. Do what you can to get that 3M cap hit off your roster. Obviously, the organization still has to pay him that dough, but do what you can to get it off your cap. Other cap-relief options on forward, such as Matt Stajan or Nik Hagman, would likely require buy-outs. A Stajan buy-out would be a very expensive venture, given the dollars and term remaining on his deal. While he had a poor year, I don’t think Hagman should be the candidate either. He only has one year left on his deal, and to me isn’t in a catastrophic scenario where a buyout would be worth the dollars spent. He can still provide depth minutes, and has the ability to chip in offensively. Buy-outs should be considered a last resort, especially when Kotalik could be headed to Europe, and 2.7 million worth of Steve Staios will be freed up. Assuming multiple buy-outs are unrealistic, I’ll save my buy-out for later, when I break down the D core.
Here’s a second, less popular move: Allow Curtis Glencross to walk on July 1. In 3 seasons with the team, Glencross put up one very impressive 30-game stretch (in a contract year) and the rest has been bound with inconsistency and undisciplined play. He’s a very solid penalty killer and can score in bunches, but let’s leave it at that. Sorry folks, but the last thing this team needs is another underachieving 3+million dollar player. Cough (Rene Bourque, Nik Hagman, Matt Stajan) cough!
Additions
How do you replace the grit and speed of Glencross? By signing Scottie Upshall, assuming he's still available come July 1. Upshall is a gritty, pain-in-the-rear to play against, and he’s younger than Glencross. Let’s not forget: he scored an average of 20 goals per season playing for the Phoenix Coyotes. He’s done so primarily in a 3rd line role, to boot. As Glencross was this season, I think Upshall is due a promotion to top-six minutes. For my money, he’s a comparable player to Glencross with greater upside. Shoot for somewhere between 2-2.5 million for Upshall.
Sign Chris Higgins: an affordable, dependable option for depth. Higgins has decent speed, good defensive awareness and wins the one-on-one battles with regularity. He has the ability to provide some much needed secondary scoring, but is still a valuable player when he isn’t providing offence. He couldn’t catch many breaks around the net in his short stint as a Flame, but impressed many with his work ethic and all-around game. Feaster has preached the intent to bring in players that fit “Brent Sutter Hockey,” and I think Higgins is a good example of that. With his seemingly reasonable salary demands, it seems like a low-risk, potentially high-reward signing for the team. Cap hit should fall within the low-2 million range. Neither Upshall nor Higgins would be a fan-favourite on July 1, but I think both would fit in really well on this team, especially with its cap limitations.
As we know, the Flames’ forward ranks aren’t filled with much star talent or game-changing ability. So, work to your strengths, and utilize the depth by stringing together 4 balanced lines that provide at least some threat to score. The Nashville Predators, Phoenix Coyotes and New York Rangers have shown it is possible to win with 4 lines of balance and depth alone. Here’s how I would break down the forward ranks:
Line 1: Tanguay, Backlund, Iginla
Tanguay and Iginla speaks for itself. Why Backlund you say? Jokinen is clearly not a fit, and Langkow is a more suitable shutdown option. While a small stretch of games may not be a strong indication, Backlund provided some speed to that top line in the final stretch of the season. I’m not saying he’s is a proven #1 centre, but I think he’s a good fit with these two. Iggy and Tangs can pass it back and fourth all day, but it becomes predictable and easy to defend against when the the foot-speed isn't there. I don’t expect Backlund to be a top scorer, but his speed and creativity would make the trio more difficult to defend against. The elevated ice-time and increased two-way responsibility would help his development as well. It may be a big step for Backlund, but I think his presence on the top line would make Iginla and Tanguay better, and of course - vice versa.
Line 2: Upshall, Jokinen, Bourque
Jokinen was utilized as a shutdown option for the latter half of the season, but I don’t think he’s an ideal candidate for that role. While no longer an 80-point man, Jokinen is a big body, with decent speed and a good shot. His offensive capabilities, to me, still exceed his two-way game. Upshall can bring the speed and has a nose for the net, which can allow Bourque to be... what Bourque is. While his play is inconsistent, his skill-set and offensive proficiency is more suited to a top-six role. Upshall’s gritty play and Jokinen’s speed would create space for Bourque to chip in on the offense, and build on his 27 goals from last season – hopefully with more consistency.
Line 3: Higgins, Langkow, Moss
This would serve as the shutdown line, playing against the opposition’s best. All three of these players have demonstrated a solid, two-way game. While defensive accountability would be the key factor for this trio, I expect its best attribute would be the ability to cycle the puck in the offensive zone and force top lines on the opposition to play defence. This responsibility would allow Backlund and Jokinen’s line to play against more favourable match-ups, and create a balanced attack throughout the line-up.
Line 4: Hagman, Stajan, Jackman
Yes, this would in fact be the highest paid 4th line in hockey, but you can’t do anything about contracts that have already been signed. Matching line combinations based on salary would be foolish, especially with this roster. Stajan and Hagman would hopefully dominate these matchups, while Jackman’s solid play would help stablilize the game for the other two. The goons of the NHL have become somewhat obsolete. Today, it’s about having 4 lines that can provide some jump for you. I think this trio could do just that, while chipping in on offense with more regularity with its favourable matchups. This role, while not ideal for Stajan, would allow him to use his efficiency in the dot to take key faceoffs and provide some skill on the lower end of the depth chart. As a Flame, Hagman has been all-hustle and no finish, so he’ll fit right in on the 4th line.
Extra forwards: Bouma, Kostopoulos
Both options could come in and play a bottom-six role in an injury situation, while players like Moss, Higgins or Hagman could be shifted up the depth chart if need be.
DEFENCE
From what I can see, the league is moving towards more mobile, puck-moving defensemen. I think the Flames could be more proactive with that transition this offseason, by replacing older D men with youth and more quickness. Even from a divisional standpoint: the Flames will play the Oilers, Canucks and Avalanche somewhere in the neighborhood of 18 times. These organizations are at various stages, but all 3 teams boast a very quick team in the forward ranks. In order to keep up with these teams, mobility on the back end is more important than veteran experience. For example, while both are experienced and intelligent D men, Staios and Sarich simply cannot keep up with these high-octane, speedy teams. I remember back to a couple of ugly contests in Vancouver, where this was painfully evident. There’s a limit in flexibility for the forward ranks, but a youth movement on the back end in Calgary is actually viable. Here’s how I would go about doing that:
Subtractions
Allow Steve Staios and Anton Babchuk to walk on July 1. I won’t bother getting into the Staios explanation, but Babchuk is an intriguing case. I was very impressed with what we saw out of Babz last season. However, as a bottom-pairing D man, you can’t afford to pay him more than his current 1.4 million dollar paycheque. He’s an effective option on the PP, but I think you need to allow Brodie to evolve into that role. There are only so many dollars to go around to your 5-7 defensemen, so I think Babchuk’s spot should be freed up for Brodie.
Trade or buy-out Cory Sarich: Generally speaking, I think Sarich is a solid D man. He’s physical, and he keeps his game relatively simple. However, time and time again last season we saw Sarich lose a foot-race, or get beaten wide by an oncoming winger. I don’t think he’s suited to his current top-4 role, when there are quicker and more affordable options. Having said that, I certainly wouldn’t want his 3.6 million dollars being utilized in a bottom-two role, so I think it’s time to find a new home for Sarich. I imagine he would still have some trade value, as a serviceable shut-down type, so a swap of bad contracts may be in order. Should that fail, I think Sarich is the best option for a buy-out. Unlike on forward, young players are pushing on defence, and his contributions are replaceable.
Additions
Re-sign Brett Carson and Adam Pardy. Pardy has run into some injury issues in recent years, but he’s a solid option to have as an extra D man. He’s familiar with the system and would be able to fill in seamlessly in an injury situation – at near league minimum in dollars. As for Carson, I was very impressed with what we saw from him in the latter stages of the season. He played alongside Giordano for a number of games, and didn’t look out of place in the least. To my surprise, Carolina was very disappointed to lose Carson via waivers at the deadline. He has a big frame, but is very mobile and an effective puck-mover. He’s still a young D man, at 25 years of age, but he has some NHL experience under his belt. While he would be prone to the odd mistake, like all young D men, utilizing Carson alongside Giordano would provide a more mobile option in the top-4, while making considerably less dough than Sarich and his 3.6 million. For me, it’s an upgrade on all fronts.
Bring Tim Erixon and T.J. Brodie into the mix this season. Erixon has proven he can play big minutes against men in Sweden, so I would imagine the transition to be more seamless than most young defensemen. While sheltering his even strength minutes, allow Brodie to evolve as a second unit PP specialist of sorts. I expect Brodie’s development to mirror that of Giordano – start out as a sheltered D man, used only in certain situations, and slowly develop him into a well-rounded top-4 option (gradually, of course).
Here’s a breakdown of the defensive pairings, as I would position them:
Regehr – Bouwmeester:
Quite simply: a very solid shutdown option. Bouwmeester’s offensive totals haven’t met expectations, but this pairing provides elements of toughness and shutdown ability, along with quickness and intelligence. This tandem was utilized consistently from mid-season on, and I think it’s no coincidence that the team drastically improved from that point onwards. Pairing these two together from the outset would go a long way in getting back to the top of the league in goals against. These two big-minute D men not only provide some reliability against top opposition, but also allow Giordano to excel in his role against lesser competition.
Giordano – Carson:
Giordano is one of the best second-pairing D men in the league, and his game continues to evolve as an all-around defenseman. As such, I think you can afford to pair him with a younger D man like Carson, without giving up too much in terms of reliability in your top-4. Given the younger D core, the second pairing would be expected to play a more prominent role than in seasons past.
Erixon – Brodie:
These are both players that deserve to be on the big club next year. Having said that, I wouldn’t be confident placing either option in the top-4. Based on his pro experience in Sweden, Erixon may be a fit alongside Giordano at some point next season. At the outset, however, I would be more confident placing Carson in that role, with his NHL experience and development to this point. This bottom pairing would likely need to be sheltered against top-competition in most cases, but this placement would allow both players to get their feet wet at the NHL level, and provide some much needed mobility and puck skills on the back end.
Extra D man: Pardy
From a goaltending standpoint, Kiprusoff can still carry the majority of the load (hopefully only 60 games), while re-signing Karlsson would provide some stability at the back-up position. Not only is Karlsson an effective back-up, but at 26 years old, he further solidifies the goaltending future of the organization. While Irving carries the load in the AHL, and youngster Ortio gets some games in at the pro level, Karlsson provides yet another option a couple of years from now. A 2 year, two-way contract would be ideal, as it would allow the organization to bring up Irving (or even Ortio) for short stints, should the opportunity present itself. It would be more beneficial down the road to have Irving excel at the AHL level, rather than have him sit on the bench and get shelled 10 games a year (CuMac).
What changes would you make in the offseason, and what would that look like come September?
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Friday, April 29, 2011
Sitting, Waiting, Wishing
The wild ride has ended.
While stringing together a solid stretch to end the season, the first half of 2010-2011 is what extinguished the Flames' playoff hopes. Not if Team A lost and Team B won, or if the Flames had one point here or one point there. If you put yourself in a position where you need to play above 0.700 hockey in the last 3 months of the season, you really shouldn't be in the playoff conversation. Having said that, I'd take a last-minute miss on the playoffs over a 14th or 15th place lottery season any day. The team made it exciting, and forced themselves back in that conversation, which isn't beyond recognition. Looking back at the season as a whole, there were some positives:
Jarome Iginla, 34 years of age: 43 goals. Franchise and personal records aplenty.
Alex Tanguay: Career saving season, proving he is the best possible linemate for Iginla, on the best bargain of a contract in 2010-2011: 69 points.
Mark Giordano: continues to impress and, despite his minus rating on the year, continues to evolve as a complete defenceman. Even at his new cap hit of 4M, he was a very important signing for this team moving forward.
Mikael Backlund: While there was nothing spectacular about Backlund's first full season in the NHL, I think we saw some steady progression and improvement from start to finish. Excited to see if he can carry that forward to next season.
Tim Jackman: Despite his limited role, Tim was one of the most consistent players on this team. Nice to finally have that "net-front presence" on the PP as well. Safe to say, Jackman was a pleasant surprise this season.
Of course, there were some disappointments:
Rene Bourque: Wildly inconsistent and seemingly disinterested, yet still managed to score 27 goals. Very good production, given he only showed up for half the games.
Matt Stajan: What more can you say? His soft play landed him bottom six minutes, and he didn't show any upside to be promoted to a more prominent role. Can't wait for 3 more years of the same.
Ales Kotalik: I'm not even sure this is a disappointment, it's almost exactly the season we expected from AK26.
Nik Hagman: Lots of hustle, but nothing to show for it. I can't say I'm surprised that Stajan and Kotalik have underperformed wearing the flaming C, but Hagman still baffles me. He has the skill, he has the speed... He's scored 30 goals on more than one occasion, in more than one conference. Seems to be strictly a confidence issue for Hagman. If he contributes on the scoresheet early next season, I think we'll see a completely different player from start to finish. That is, assuming he survives the offseason.
Hot streaks aside, this team is not skilled or quick enough to compete with the best in the NHL. Its stars are aging, and its future is in question - a circumstance that may be acceptable if it were a playoff contender today, but that's simply not the case. The Flames have been a bubble team for a number of years, and show few signs of improvement on that status.
Many are calling for a "rebuild" but I think that approach only applies to a franchise with no other option (e.g Oilers, Islanders). My preference would be to trade one member of the "core" for a younger offensive piece, and replace the spots of underachieving veterans with younger players - be it NHL, Junior or College free agents. These players don't have to be 18-20 year old stars, but should serve as an upgrade in team speed, with potential to develop over the next several seasons. So, rather than a rebuild, I would attempt to surround the core talent with younger components to build around in years to come. Perhaps more of a "refresh" than a "rebuild."
There are a number of question marks heading into the offseason. First off, who is the full-time GM? Ken King suggested that question would be answered in the next 2-3 weeks. To this point, 3 assistant/associate coaches have been released: Rob Cookson, Jamie McLennan and perhaps most surprisingly, Ryan McGill. From an outsider's perspective, the most reasonable explanation for the McGill release would be the decline of the penalty kill. According to Ken King, the position is not reserved for any one coach in particular, and Brent will begin to interview candidates in the coming weeks.
So what's next? A big trade? A surprising firing? A long term deal for Curtis Glencross or Alex Tanguay? The analysis will continue, but no question: this will be a very interesting offseason for the Calgary Flames. Stay tuned!
Follow posts on twitter at @GMDW10
While stringing together a solid stretch to end the season, the first half of 2010-2011 is what extinguished the Flames' playoff hopes. Not if Team A lost and Team B won, or if the Flames had one point here or one point there. If you put yourself in a position where you need to play above 0.700 hockey in the last 3 months of the season, you really shouldn't be in the playoff conversation. Having said that, I'd take a last-minute miss on the playoffs over a 14th or 15th place lottery season any day. The team made it exciting, and forced themselves back in that conversation, which isn't beyond recognition. Looking back at the season as a whole, there were some positives:
Jarome Iginla, 34 years of age: 43 goals. Franchise and personal records aplenty.
Alex Tanguay: Career saving season, proving he is the best possible linemate for Iginla, on the best bargain of a contract in 2010-2011: 69 points.
Mark Giordano: continues to impress and, despite his minus rating on the year, continues to evolve as a complete defenceman. Even at his new cap hit of 4M, he was a very important signing for this team moving forward.
Mikael Backlund: While there was nothing spectacular about Backlund's first full season in the NHL, I think we saw some steady progression and improvement from start to finish. Excited to see if he can carry that forward to next season.
Tim Jackman: Despite his limited role, Tim was one of the most consistent players on this team. Nice to finally have that "net-front presence" on the PP as well. Safe to say, Jackman was a pleasant surprise this season.
Of course, there were some disappointments:
Rene Bourque: Wildly inconsistent and seemingly disinterested, yet still managed to score 27 goals. Very good production, given he only showed up for half the games.
Matt Stajan: What more can you say? His soft play landed him bottom six minutes, and he didn't show any upside to be promoted to a more prominent role. Can't wait for 3 more years of the same.
Ales Kotalik: I'm not even sure this is a disappointment, it's almost exactly the season we expected from AK26.
Nik Hagman: Lots of hustle, but nothing to show for it. I can't say I'm surprised that Stajan and Kotalik have underperformed wearing the flaming C, but Hagman still baffles me. He has the skill, he has the speed... He's scored 30 goals on more than one occasion, in more than one conference. Seems to be strictly a confidence issue for Hagman. If he contributes on the scoresheet early next season, I think we'll see a completely different player from start to finish. That is, assuming he survives the offseason.
Hot streaks aside, this team is not skilled or quick enough to compete with the best in the NHL. Its stars are aging, and its future is in question - a circumstance that may be acceptable if it were a playoff contender today, but that's simply not the case. The Flames have been a bubble team for a number of years, and show few signs of improvement on that status.
Many are calling for a "rebuild" but I think that approach only applies to a franchise with no other option (e.g Oilers, Islanders). My preference would be to trade one member of the "core" for a younger offensive piece, and replace the spots of underachieving veterans with younger players - be it NHL, Junior or College free agents. These players don't have to be 18-20 year old stars, but should serve as an upgrade in team speed, with potential to develop over the next several seasons. So, rather than a rebuild, I would attempt to surround the core talent with younger components to build around in years to come. Perhaps more of a "refresh" than a "rebuild."
There are a number of question marks heading into the offseason. First off, who is the full-time GM? Ken King suggested that question would be answered in the next 2-3 weeks. To this point, 3 assistant/associate coaches have been released: Rob Cookson, Jamie McLennan and perhaps most surprisingly, Ryan McGill. From an outsider's perspective, the most reasonable explanation for the McGill release would be the decline of the penalty kill. According to Ken King, the position is not reserved for any one coach in particular, and Brent will begin to interview candidates in the coming weeks.
So what's next? A big trade? A surprising firing? A long term deal for Curtis Glencross or Alex Tanguay? The analysis will continue, but no question: this will be a very interesting offseason for the Calgary Flames. Stay tuned!
Follow posts on twitter at @GMDW10
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
The Resurgence of Spare Parts
This past offseason, Darryl Doom Sutter had the hockey world scratching its collective head. While understandably limited in his cap flexibility, Sutter added three forwards that had recently plummeted in value – Olli Jokinen, Alex Tanguay and Brendan Morrison. Coming off career lows, these players fit in perfectly with a group of underachieving Calgary Flames, a team that continued to get older and less productive. Coupled with the signing of two enforcers in Raitis Ivanans and Tim Jackman, the direction of this team seemed clouded as ever.
Coming off a disappointing campaign in 2009-2010, I was desperately searching optimism: At least a handful of these players would bounce back from career lows, right? From the perspective of individual productivity, this team couldn’t possibly get worse… Could it?
Wrong. For half a season, the Calgary Flames did just that. Jarome Iginla was merely invisible, Miikka Kiprusoff looked human, and the likes of Jay Bouwmeester, Robyn Regehr and Ian White were fading rapidly from relevance. The team spiralled into 14th place. To make matters worse, Darryl began to shift the deck chairs once again, swinging a deal with the Hurricanes. At first glance, the move seemed counter productive: why trade for another fourth liner, and who the heck is Anton Babchuk?
From 14th place, many of us (myself included) spent more time analyzing the team’s trade bait and draft positioning, rather than its game-to-game performance. I was especially guilty of this, as I stopped looking at five-game segments, and began blogging entirely on big-picture concepts: contracts, buyouts and trade scenarios. Frankly, there wasn’t enough to write about between intervals. You can only vent on Jokinen’s ineffectiveness and Bourque’s disinterest so long before it becomes, well, boring. Eventually, Jay Feaster would sub in for Darryl Sutter, and despite what the organization would preach about a playoff push, many of us took the shift at GM to indicate an early start to next season.
Then, something happened. None of us on the outside can say for certain, but to say that Feaster’s cheerleading was the missing ingredient is not entirely realistic. Jay did, however, take one simple approach: drain the deadweight contracts, and allow Brent Sutter and his staff to coach the team in isolation. Not exactly rocket science, but a shift in philosophy nonetheless. A dose of clarity to an organization desperate for some direction.
The Flames have gone 18-6-6 in 2011, earning 42 of a possible 60 points. They currently sit 6th in the Western Conference. Games at hand and shootout points considered, the team is by no means a lock for the post season. However, there is reason to celebrate a complete reversal from its dwindling status in 14th, and a realistic shot at a playoff spot. Special teams progress has had a significant impact on the Flames position. The team sits at 18.4% on the PP, and has climbed to an 82.6% efficiency rate on the PK. Above all, back in October, who would have expected the Flames to sit top-ten among the NHL in goals-for? After 68 games, the team sits 6th in the NHL in goal scoring - in the mix with Detroit , Chicago , Vancouver , Philadelphia and Boston
The team’s season-end result comes second to its impressive resurgence. I’m prepared to take a seat; I thought I was so clever in my early and steadfast deadline predictions back in January (http://wizwonders.blogspot.com/2011/01/trade-deadline-predictions-5-players-on.html) but I went 0-for-5. At the time, the team’s success seemed no more than an average team on a hot-streak. Well, safe to say 3 months of solid hockey is more than a hot-streak. This is a good team. Not an elite team, not a powerhouse contender, but a good team. So what fundamental components can we point to, in this resurgence of spare parts?
BRENT SUTTER
As mentioned earlier, Brent’s role with the team shifted once Feaster took the reins. BSutt has had the freedom to assemble the line-ups based entirely on performance, without any consideration for seniority or salary implications. The Jokinen-Iginla experiments came to an end, and both players have been streaking since. Stajan and Hagman’s soft play (6.5M cap hit worth) has landed them bottom-six minutes, and the likes of Glencross and Moss have been given the green light to build on their solid two-way performance. Brent has also found more suitable roles for his D pairings, allocating ice-time more conducive to individual strengths. Special consideration goes to the utilization of Anton Babchuk, who has played some protected even strength minutes, alongside significant PP exposure to use that big (!) shot of his. Credit to Kent Wilson of FlamesNation, who posted an in-depth assessment of Babchuk and Jokinen yesterday:
BALANCE
Brent’s savvy match-ups and pairings have allowed the team to develop some consistency, and work towards that immeasurable, intangible factor: chemistry. I’m still iffy on the term “chemistry,” but perhaps “familiarity” is a more suitable explanation. Injuries have played a role in it, but locked pairings of Iggy-Tanguay, Jokinen-Glencross, Stajan-Jackman, and Backlund-Hagman have established familiarity and developed a balanced attack throughout the line-up. Most importantly, an effective one-two punch in the top six, with Jokinen and Glencross evolving as a shutdown tandem that scores goals against top opposition. This has reduced some of the workload for the top line, and they’ve capitalized on it (Iggy: 8 pts in last 4 GP, sits 8th in league scoring). This has created a ripple effect on the rest of the line-up, as unusual candidates for bottom-six minutes (Bourque, Stajan, Hagman) are able to work through some favourable match-ups to generate opportunities. Do the Flames possess a scary no. 1 line? No. This team carries 3 lines that can contribute on the score sheet, and a 4th line that has the ability to outperform 4th line opposition. To me, continuity has allowed for a more balanced attack throughout the roster, which has been a fundamental factor in the turnaround of this team.
THAT SHUTDOWN TANDEM
The departure of Ian White finally put an end to the Regehr-White pairing. An injury to Steve Staios limited Brent’s ability to couple Steady Steve with Jay Bouwmeester, for yet another attempt at an already failed experiment. For whatever reason, coupling Bouwmeester with Regehr hadn’t been tried with any regularity. Doesn’t it make sense to pair your two top-minute defensemen together, or at least try it? Well, that day finally came - and the rest is history. The shutdown pairing of Jbo and Regehr has combined to boast a +17 rating against top opposition players. Regehr’s solid game has allowed Bouwmeester to make use of his own strengths. In return, Jay’s speed and puck-moving ability have added components that compliment Robyn’s game. This tandem has been solid and consistent against the NHL’s best, and serves as a primary factor in Kiprusoff’s return to form.
ONE CONCERN: USE OF THE BACK-UP
I know. I’m tired of this debate too.
For many years, Kiprusoff has carried the load: partly because he’s a world-class goaltender, and partly due to a lack of confidence in the team’s back-up. As it stands now, Kipper has started 20 games in a row. While I don’t question his conditioning or durability, I think it’s important to make use of your back-up goaltender, because that’s why the position exists. The only way to establish a reputable back-up is to allow him to play.
Karlsson has shown he can play at this level, and will need another opportunity. Not only for the sake of Kiprusoff and a potential playoff drive, but also for the long-term direction of the team. The organization has some important decisions to make this offseason (Karlsson vs. Irving Phoenix
To wrap up, the resurgence of the Calgary Flames has not only brought the team back to league-wide relevance, but generated a renewed excitement throughout the city. The team is winning games through consistent play, along with the odd lucky bounce. In other words: the Flames are finding ways to win – a characteristic of good hockey teams. Will they make the playoffs? Here’s hoping, but at least there’s some excitement game-to-game, and that’s what being a fan is all about.
To wrap up, the resurgence of the Calgary Flames has not only brought the team back to league-wide relevance, but generated a renewed excitement throughout the city. The team is winning games through consistent play, along with the odd lucky bounce. In other words: the Flames are finding ways to win – a characteristic of good hockey teams. Will they make the playoffs? Here’s hoping, but at least there’s some excitement game-to-game, and that’s what being a fan is all about.
Go Flames Go!
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
Friday, January 28, 2011
Trade Deadline Predictions: 5 Players On Their Way Out
A recent surge by the Calgary Flames certainly complicates the focus of the organization heading into trade season. My view? Jay Feaster was handed the reigns on an "acting" basis to make changes, and one month of solid hockey isn't going to fix the underlying shortcomings of the team. Regardless of any playoff pursuit, I expect the Flames to be sellers by the deadline. That is: shipping out veteran contributors for younger options - be it picks or unproven youngsters, to spur an eventual youth movement in Calgary.
For starters, here are some key points to remember about Jay Feaster:
1) He has expressed an intent to obtain value for *pending free agents*
2) His goal is to become more *mobile* on defense. He emphasized the importance of quick, puck moving defense in today's game
3) He plans to surround the "core" with players that can commit to Brent's style on a *consistent* basis. In other words, Feaster intends to build the team around Brent. Agree or disagree, at least the plan has an element of consistency to it.
4) He has expressed a desire to re-stock the team's draft picks. As it stands now, the Flames have 1 pick in the top 100 for the upcoming draft. Should Feaster prevail, we can expect a number of mid-level picks heading West this February.
One rule: We would all love to trade Ales Kotalik and Olli Jokinen for draft picks and skate sharpeners. The reality? No organzation would be willing to take on those contracts, even if they find some absurd reason to give up assets in order to acquire them. I'll try to remain as realistic as possible when addressing potential trade components on the Flames. In doing so, I'll steer clear of these deadweight contracts in order to set fourth reasonable predictions.
5 players on their way out of Calgary by February 28, 2011:
ROBYN REGEHR (2 years remaining, no-movement clause)
It will be tough to see Reggie go, but his inflated trade value around the leave presents an opportunity that shouldn't - and won't - be passed up. Compounded with 2 more years at a shade over 4 million per, Regehr's trade value is at its peak, and the Flames strength on defense would allow the team to manage without. Unlike, let's say, Jarome Iginla's offensive contributions. Given the team's inconsistency in recent years, one of the leaders - Iginla or Regehr - is bound to be dealt. For my money, it's more realistic to replace a shutdown defenseman than an all star, franchise-leading goal scorer.
Comparable Transactions
- Scott Hannan for Tomas Fleischmann
- Michal Roszival for Wojtek Wolski
Potential Return
Here's the best news - given recent transactions around the league, a deal involving Regehr would garner a hefty return - potentially involving a 1st round pick, along with some youthful offensive depth.
CURTIS GLENCROSS (Pending UFA)
Glencross was a bargain signing in the summer of '08. While I've been a big fan of his tenacity and underrated skill set, Glencross' contributions have been wildly inconsistent - an attribute that has plagued the entire team in recent memory. Curtis has a club membership to Brent's doghouse, and has expressed frustration with his limited opportunity at a top-six role on the team. With this in mind, it seems unlikely that Glencross would be re-signed by the team this summer. Expect Feaster to ship him off and acquire an asset while the option is still available to do so. He would be a low-risk, depth acquisition for a number of teams - most likely of the contending variety.
Comparable Transactions
- Dominic Moore for a 2nd rd pick
- Raffi Torres for Nathan Paetsch, 2nd rd pick
Potential Return - 3 Scenarios
1) Strong team seeking bottom-6 depth:
Glencross for 3rd rd pick
2) Lower seed team, looking for an affordable top-6 option:
Glencross for 2nd rd pick (e.g. Rene Bourque acquisition by CGY)
3) Playoff team looking to ship off an expiring contract of its own - unlikely to re-sign:
Glencross for Bergfors
Glencross for Upshall
Given the desperate nature of the trade deadline, we can expect a team to give up too much for a versatile, energy player like Glencross. Comparable transactions from last year's deadline (see above) bode well for the Flames in this case.
NIKLAS HAGMAN (1 year remaining)
Nik Hagman is what he is: a 31 year old, speedy Finnish winger, that could be a valuable asset to any team... should he find a way to improve his consistency. Based on Feaster's intentions to turn the page with this team, I don't see a scenario wherein Hagman survives the transition. As a capable secondary scoring option, his trade value hasn't completely deteriorated. Unlike Glencross, it's difficult to equate Hagman's deficiencies to a lack of work ethic. He moves his feet, can crash and bang along the wall, and provides some much needed energy for the team. Unfortunately, Hagman simply isn't able to "finnish" (no pun intended). Perhaps his hustle would be rewarded with a more offensively potent line-up, skating alongside players not named Stajan, Jokinen or Kotalik.
Comparable Transactions
- Jeff Halpern for Teddy Purcell, 3rd rd pick
- Matt D'Agostini for Aaron Palushaj
Potential Return
Hagman's additional year under contract helps his trade value. A 2nd rd pick would be a steal, but Hagman is more likely to yield a 3rd rd pick, or mid-level prospect. He's a viable option to re-stock a pick in the top 100 for the upcoming draft, a goal clearly outlined by Jay Feaster.
BRENDAN MORRISON (Pending UFA)
Morrison has proved to be an impressive value signing for the Flames this season. When he isn't contributing on the scoresheet, he's winning face-offs, killing penalties and finding some way to make his linemates better. Brendan has played well on lines 1-4, at centre and on the wing. Luckily for the Flames, Morrison now represents a valuable spare part for any playoff team. With 4 NHL options at centre (Jokinen, Stajan, Backlund, Moss) and viable options in Abbotsford (Wahl, Stone, Armstrong), it seems very unlikely that Feaster would look to re-sign a 35 year old depth centreman. The good news? Morrison has created a market for his services that was non-existent a mere 5 months ago.
Comparable Transactions
- Scott Walker for a 7th rd pick
- Jamie Langenbrunner for a conditional 3rd rd pick
Potential Return
Given his age, Morrison's expiring, pro-rated $725,000 contract serves as an asset, as it gives any organization the ability to evaluate his performance in a small snapshot. This creates some flexibility in the offseason, with no long-term commitments or cap obligations beyond this season. At age 35, the ceiling may be limited, but Morrison's versatility could render a 4th rd pick, which would contribute to the inevitable youth movement in Calgary.
ANTON BABCHUK (Pending UFA)
Since his arrival on the scene, Babchuk has performed as advertised. He's a 5th/6th defenseman, often protected from top line competition, and serves primarily as a powerplay specialist. His shutdown ability is limited, but his overall defensive game has progressed in his short stint with the Flames. Babchuk leads all Flames defensemen with 4 PP goals, and - as advertised - does possess a heavy shot from the back end (2nd only to our hero: Ales Kotalik).
While we're at it, here's an interesting comparison from The 4th Line Blog:
Babchuk-14 Points in last 34 games.
Phaneuf-11 Points in last 33 games.
... Just provides a little somethin' to giggle at. Babchuk has been a capable depth defender, and brings a secret threat on the powerplay. So, what's the market for a depth defenseman like Babs for the stretch run?
Comparable Transactions
- Martin Skoula for 5th rd pick
- Shane O'Brien for Ryan Parent
As a one-dimensional defenseman, the return on Anton Babchuk is limited. Nevertheless, expect Feaster to find a taker on this PP specialist, and attain a late round pick (5th/6th rd) or mid-level prospect in return.
And so ends my predictions for the upcoming trade deadline. Remember, these were assembled based on what we've heard from JayFe to this point, and do not necessarily reflect my own preferences. Look forward to hearing some of your expectations for the deadline!
Here's what we know for sure: this is an intriguing time to follow the Calgary Flames.
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
For starters, here are some key points to remember about Jay Feaster:
1) He has expressed an intent to obtain value for *pending free agents*
2) His goal is to become more *mobile* on defense. He emphasized the importance of quick, puck moving defense in today's game
3) He plans to surround the "core" with players that can commit to Brent's style on a *consistent* basis. In other words, Feaster intends to build the team around Brent. Agree or disagree, at least the plan has an element of consistency to it.
4) He has expressed a desire to re-stock the team's draft picks. As it stands now, the Flames have 1 pick in the top 100 for the upcoming draft. Should Feaster prevail, we can expect a number of mid-level picks heading West this February.
One rule: We would all love to trade Ales Kotalik and Olli Jokinen for draft picks and skate sharpeners. The reality? No organzation would be willing to take on those contracts, even if they find some absurd reason to give up assets in order to acquire them. I'll try to remain as realistic as possible when addressing potential trade components on the Flames. In doing so, I'll steer clear of these deadweight contracts in order to set fourth reasonable predictions.
5 players on their way out of Calgary by February 28, 2011:
ROBYN REGEHR (2 years remaining, no-movement clause)
It will be tough to see Reggie go, but his inflated trade value around the leave presents an opportunity that shouldn't - and won't - be passed up. Compounded with 2 more years at a shade over 4 million per, Regehr's trade value is at its peak, and the Flames strength on defense would allow the team to manage without. Unlike, let's say, Jarome Iginla's offensive contributions. Given the team's inconsistency in recent years, one of the leaders - Iginla or Regehr - is bound to be dealt. For my money, it's more realistic to replace a shutdown defenseman than an all star, franchise-leading goal scorer.
Comparable Transactions
- Scott Hannan for Tomas Fleischmann
- Michal Roszival for Wojtek Wolski
Potential Return
Here's the best news - given recent transactions around the league, a deal involving Regehr would garner a hefty return - potentially involving a 1st round pick, along with some youthful offensive depth.
CURTIS GLENCROSS (Pending UFA)
Glencross was a bargain signing in the summer of '08. While I've been a big fan of his tenacity and underrated skill set, Glencross' contributions have been wildly inconsistent - an attribute that has plagued the entire team in recent memory. Curtis has a club membership to Brent's doghouse, and has expressed frustration with his limited opportunity at a top-six role on the team. With this in mind, it seems unlikely that Glencross would be re-signed by the team this summer. Expect Feaster to ship him off and acquire an asset while the option is still available to do so. He would be a low-risk, depth acquisition for a number of teams - most likely of the contending variety.
Comparable Transactions
- Dominic Moore for a 2nd rd pick
- Raffi Torres for Nathan Paetsch, 2nd rd pick
Potential Return - 3 Scenarios
1) Strong team seeking bottom-6 depth:
Glencross for 3rd rd pick
2) Lower seed team, looking for an affordable top-6 option:
Glencross for 2nd rd pick (e.g. Rene Bourque acquisition by CGY)
3) Playoff team looking to ship off an expiring contract of its own - unlikely to re-sign:
Glencross for Bergfors
Glencross for Upshall
Given the desperate nature of the trade deadline, we can expect a team to give up too much for a versatile, energy player like Glencross. Comparable transactions from last year's deadline (see above) bode well for the Flames in this case.
NIKLAS HAGMAN (1 year remaining)
Nik Hagman is what he is: a 31 year old, speedy Finnish winger, that could be a valuable asset to any team... should he find a way to improve his consistency. Based on Feaster's intentions to turn the page with this team, I don't see a scenario wherein Hagman survives the transition. As a capable secondary scoring option, his trade value hasn't completely deteriorated. Unlike Glencross, it's difficult to equate Hagman's deficiencies to a lack of work ethic. He moves his feet, can crash and bang along the wall, and provides some much needed energy for the team. Unfortunately, Hagman simply isn't able to "finnish" (no pun intended). Perhaps his hustle would be rewarded with a more offensively potent line-up, skating alongside players not named Stajan, Jokinen or Kotalik.
Comparable Transactions
- Jeff Halpern for Teddy Purcell, 3rd rd pick
- Matt D'Agostini for Aaron Palushaj
Potential Return
Hagman's additional year under contract helps his trade value. A 2nd rd pick would be a steal, but Hagman is more likely to yield a 3rd rd pick, or mid-level prospect. He's a viable option to re-stock a pick in the top 100 for the upcoming draft, a goal clearly outlined by Jay Feaster.
BRENDAN MORRISON (Pending UFA)
Morrison has proved to be an impressive value signing for the Flames this season. When he isn't contributing on the scoresheet, he's winning face-offs, killing penalties and finding some way to make his linemates better. Brendan has played well on lines 1-4, at centre and on the wing. Luckily for the Flames, Morrison now represents a valuable spare part for any playoff team. With 4 NHL options at centre (Jokinen, Stajan, Backlund, Moss) and viable options in Abbotsford (Wahl, Stone, Armstrong), it seems very unlikely that Feaster would look to re-sign a 35 year old depth centreman. The good news? Morrison has created a market for his services that was non-existent a mere 5 months ago.
Comparable Transactions
- Scott Walker for a 7th rd pick
- Jamie Langenbrunner for a conditional 3rd rd pick
Potential Return
Given his age, Morrison's expiring, pro-rated $725,000 contract serves as an asset, as it gives any organization the ability to evaluate his performance in a small snapshot. This creates some flexibility in the offseason, with no long-term commitments or cap obligations beyond this season. At age 35, the ceiling may be limited, but Morrison's versatility could render a 4th rd pick, which would contribute to the inevitable youth movement in Calgary.
ANTON BABCHUK (Pending UFA)
Since his arrival on the scene, Babchuk has performed as advertised. He's a 5th/6th defenseman, often protected from top line competition, and serves primarily as a powerplay specialist. His shutdown ability is limited, but his overall defensive game has progressed in his short stint with the Flames. Babchuk leads all Flames defensemen with 4 PP goals, and - as advertised - does possess a heavy shot from the back end (2nd only to our hero: Ales Kotalik).
While we're at it, here's an interesting comparison from The 4th Line Blog:
Babchuk-14 Points in last 34 games.
Phaneuf-11 Points in last 33 games.
... Just provides a little somethin' to giggle at. Babchuk has been a capable depth defender, and brings a secret threat on the powerplay. So, what's the market for a depth defenseman like Babs for the stretch run?
Comparable Transactions
- Martin Skoula for 5th rd pick
- Shane O'Brien for Ryan Parent
As a one-dimensional defenseman, the return on Anton Babchuk is limited. Nevertheless, expect Feaster to find a taker on this PP specialist, and attain a late round pick (5th/6th rd) or mid-level prospect in return.
And so ends my predictions for the upcoming trade deadline. Remember, these were assembled based on what we've heard from JayFe to this point, and do not necessarily reflect my own preferences. Look forward to hearing some of your expectations for the deadline!
Here's what we know for sure: this is an intriguing time to follow the Calgary Flames.
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Darryl Sutter: The Beauty... and the Beast
Welcome to the celebration of Darryl Sutter's tenure as GM of the Calgary Flames. We are going to drink hard early on and rejoice some of the great memories, before the hangover kicks in and we begin to feel a tad more cynical about Darryl's tenure. Oh yeah: it's Beauty and the Beast themed, so bring your masks and ball gowns.
THE BEAUTY
Kiprusoff
This one goes without saying: Sutter dealt a 2nd round pick to SJ for Kipper, which paid immediate dividends, and now represents a huge turning point for the organization.
Tanguay
This refers to the original trade for Tanguay in 2005. Leopold and a 2nd round pick for a 26 year old, cup clinching goal scorer seemed to be a bargain. His 80+ points worth of playmaking alongside Iggy wasn't bad either. Tangs then managed 58 points in a checking role under Keenan the following season. He was a major impact player for the Flames, and the deal that brought him to Calgary proved to be a steal.
Cammalleri
Speaking of Tanguay, he has since admitted he asked for a trade that final season, and his request was met in the '08 draft. Tanguay was traded to the Canadiens for a 1st round pick, a pick that was then dealt to LA along with a 2nd round selection for Mike Cammalleri. So, Darryl essentially dished off an unhappy player, and slightly shifted the team’s draft position in order to acquire Cammalleri several minutes later - while maintaining a 1st round pick. Not bad, Darryl. Cammalleri would go on to score a career high 39 goals and 43 assists in his only season with the Flames.
Bourque
Minutes after free agency opens on July 1, Darryl avoids the free agent frenzy and trades a conditional 2nd round pick to Chicago for Rene Bourque, a 3rd/4th line penalty killer for the Blackhawks. Rene had tallied 33 goals in 3 years with the Hawks (6 short handed). Admittedly, I sure didn't think much of the deal at the time. The undrafted winger has scored 20+ goals in two full seasons with the Flames, and is on pace for 26 this year. While inconsistent, he's shown signs of growth in his offensive contributions, despite some battles with injury along the way. Re-signing Bourque to a multi-year extension worth around 3.3M per season could prove to be a bargain as well.
Giordano
A diamond in the rough, as they say, and rough is the key word here. Giordano was undrafted and plucked out of the OHL by Sutter. He spent 3 seasons with the organization, before a contract dispute landed him in Russia for a year. Clearly, there were no hard feelings, as Darryl went right back at Gio and signed him to return to the Flames the following season. Since that point, we have witnessed the steady maturity of a very solid NHL d man. He's been one of the team's most consistent players over the last couple of seasons, and continues to evolve into a very dependable player in every facet of the game. Earlier on this season, Giordano was extended long-term, with a cap hit of 4.02M. A number that, presumably falls well below the money he would have collected this July 1st, as he was said to be one of the top 3 pending free agent defensemen this summer.
Langkow
Given Daymond's current status with the team (and possibly his career), this mention is likely to fall on deaf ears. To me, there's no doubt the team misses his solid, two-way consistency. As far as the transaction itself, all we need to ask ourselves is "where are Denis Gauthier and Oleg Saprykin playing these days?" That was the deal that brought Langkow to Calgary in 2005. In his first 4 seasons as a Flame, Langks posted 20+ goals consistently, and compounded a plus/minus rating of +42. A difficult start to last season and a long-term neck injury have diluted some of Daymond's contributions over the last couple of seasons, but full credit to Darryl for the initial move. Not that I don’t miss Oleg Saprykin’s shoot-from-everywhere approach.
THE BEAST
Mike Keenan hired, Jim Playfair fired
Based on the last couple of years of Flames hockey, it's tough to fathom a coach firing after one season at a 43-29-10 record. However, Darryl saw fit to demote head coach Jim Playfair in the summer of 2007. To make matters worse, he hired the infamous “Iron Mike” Keenan, stating that Mike was the “perfect selection” to take his team to the next level. It’s my belief that Keenan set the Flames back several years, with his unwillingness to play youngsters, and his excessive dependence on the likes of Iginla, Jokinen and Kiprusoff. With undue pressure on 23 year old Dion Phaneuf to perform through 25+ minutes a night, Keenan’s tenure sparked the beginning of Phaneuf’s fall to mediocrity as well. To his credit, Iron Mike remains tops in all-time wins among NHL coaches with a number of different teams. However, his inequitable distribution of ice time, and his reluctance to address the positional and strategic aspects of play hurt the Flames’ underlying performance. The team’s PP and PK percentages dropped drastically, and the defensive accountability plummeted, leaving a disaster for Brent Sutter to clean up – a process that is still ongoing. While the team’s performance in the standings was tolerable, Keenan’s regime could be viewed as a damaging period for the organization long term.
Olli Jokinen
Sutter made a splash in the ’08 trade deadline, by acquiring a number one centre to play with Jarome Iginla.
To Calgary:
Olli Jokinen
3rd round draft pick
To Phoenix:
Matthew Lombardi
Brandon Prust
1st round draft pick
I must admit, I was in full support of the deal at the time. Being somewhat unfamiliar with Jokinen’s play, I took one look at his 40+ goal seasons and immediately jumped on board. The wait was over, and the Flames finally had an elite #1 centre. Or did they? Things looked very good early, as Jokinen put up several multi-goal games in his first 10 as a Flame. From there, however, Olli’s play would drop off... and the rest, much to the frustration of Flames fans, is history. Jokinen was then sent to New York for a short sample of Chris Higgins, and a deadweight contract in Ales Kotalik. So essentially, the team gave away a young, speedy centreman in Lombardi and a desperately needed 1st round pick, for Jokinen (twice) and 3 million dollars worth of Ales Kotalik for the remainder of the season – and two more. Again, far be it for me to criticize any move related to Olli Jokinen, because I was strongly in favour of the initial deal that brought him to Calgary.
That ugly blockbuster trade
I have no qualms about dealing your most tradeable asset. However, the Phaneuf deal reeked of desperation, and could prove to be a missed opportunity for the team. An opportunity to deal a very attractive asset to bring in some much needed skill and youth. Instead, Darryl brought in four members of the worst team in the NHL. As the team approaches a potential rebuild, it’s frustrating to consider the impact players or prospects that could have come back in a deal for Dion. Jeff Carter? Jordan Staal? Derek Roy? Obviously speculation there, but it’s clear Darryl didn’t shop around for the best offer, as indicated by several GMs throughout the league. Rather than trading a star for a star, the team gave away its most tradeable asset for four average players, and only two remain with the team. To make matters worse, Darryl threw in Keith Aulie, who was arguably the Flames’ best defensive prospect at the time.
Staios
Did you really feel the need to deal away a 3rd round pick, alongside a serviceable *young* d man for Steve Staios? Did you really think your deadline deal to bring in a slow, 37 year old veteran defenseman would be the difference between making and missing the playoffs? That’s a tough sell, especially with that 2.7 M cap hit for an additional season.
Passing on Cammalleri
Hmm: Great chemistry with Iginla, young, undisputable skill, and a timely scorer (39 goals). When asked if the Flames would be able to sign Cammalleri to an extension under the cap, Darryl responded “we can do whatever we want.” According to Craig Conroy, Cammo was looking for a deal in the neighbourhood of 5M per year. So, clearly Darryl didn’t “want” Cammalleri back. Every time the Flames lose 2-1 games to Minnesota, Columbus or Nashville, I find myself wondering what could have been if the team were to have kept shifty Mike Cammalleri.... The one that got away.
Stajan contract extension
First off: offering a 4 year extension to a player that has only played 9 games for you is likely premature. Also: to pay him $4 million in the first two years as a second line centre (at best?) is too much. If we felt it was a poor deal when it was announced late last season, we can take comfort in reviewing Stajan's production so far this season: 2 goals. Yes, that's 2 million per goal. Worst part is, Stajan’s lack of production makes his big contract near impossible to move.
Darryl deserves some credit for building a competitive team from the depths of a very dark period for hockey in Calgary. Darryl was an exciting GM to follow, as he was always prepared to tinker. Whether we agreed or disagreed, he was ever prepared to make adjustments, and rarely stood pat. Unfortunately, Darryl’s moves turned to desperation later on in his tenure, and these decisions could set the team back a number of years. All we can say now is “thank god I’m not Jay Feaster.”
To close, here are some quotes in memory of Darryl Sutter:
"To be quite honest, (fill in the blank here)... So, we have a really good hockey team."
"There are only a handful of elite coaches that could coach this group." So Darryl, would you return to coaching? "Well, I'm one of them... I just don't want to."
"Our goals-for is fine. It's our goals-against that needs work." Earlier this season, when the team was scoring an average of 2.05 goals per game.
"Hey, if the fans want our players to wave their sticks at centre-ice after having the sh*t kicked out of them, we can arrange that," when asked about a post-game salute to the fans.
For additional head-scratching, here are more D-Sutt quotes - courtesy CalgaryPuck:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?p=2864631
THE BEAUTY
Kiprusoff
This one goes without saying: Sutter dealt a 2nd round pick to SJ for Kipper, which paid immediate dividends, and now represents a huge turning point for the organization.
Tanguay
This refers to the original trade for Tanguay in 2005. Leopold and a 2nd round pick for a 26 year old, cup clinching goal scorer seemed to be a bargain. His 80+ points worth of playmaking alongside Iggy wasn't bad either. Tangs then managed 58 points in a checking role under Keenan the following season. He was a major impact player for the Flames, and the deal that brought him to Calgary proved to be a steal.
Cammalleri
Speaking of Tanguay, he has since admitted he asked for a trade that final season, and his request was met in the '08 draft. Tanguay was traded to the Canadiens for a 1st round pick, a pick that was then dealt to LA along with a 2nd round selection for Mike Cammalleri. So, Darryl essentially dished off an unhappy player, and slightly shifted the team’s draft position in order to acquire Cammalleri several minutes later - while maintaining a 1st round pick. Not bad, Darryl. Cammalleri would go on to score a career high 39 goals and 43 assists in his only season with the Flames.
Bourque
Minutes after free agency opens on July 1, Darryl avoids the free agent frenzy and trades a conditional 2nd round pick to Chicago for Rene Bourque, a 3rd/4th line penalty killer for the Blackhawks. Rene had tallied 33 goals in 3 years with the Hawks (6 short handed). Admittedly, I sure didn't think much of the deal at the time. The undrafted winger has scored 20+ goals in two full seasons with the Flames, and is on pace for 26 this year. While inconsistent, he's shown signs of growth in his offensive contributions, despite some battles with injury along the way. Re-signing Bourque to a multi-year extension worth around 3.3M per season could prove to be a bargain as well.
Giordano
A diamond in the rough, as they say, and rough is the key word here. Giordano was undrafted and plucked out of the OHL by Sutter. He spent 3 seasons with the organization, before a contract dispute landed him in Russia for a year. Clearly, there were no hard feelings, as Darryl went right back at Gio and signed him to return to the Flames the following season. Since that point, we have witnessed the steady maturity of a very solid NHL d man. He's been one of the team's most consistent players over the last couple of seasons, and continues to evolve into a very dependable player in every facet of the game. Earlier on this season, Giordano was extended long-term, with a cap hit of 4.02M. A number that, presumably falls well below the money he would have collected this July 1st, as he was said to be one of the top 3 pending free agent defensemen this summer.
Langkow
Given Daymond's current status with the team (and possibly his career), this mention is likely to fall on deaf ears. To me, there's no doubt the team misses his solid, two-way consistency. As far as the transaction itself, all we need to ask ourselves is "where are Denis Gauthier and Oleg Saprykin playing these days?" That was the deal that brought Langkow to Calgary in 2005. In his first 4 seasons as a Flame, Langks posted 20+ goals consistently, and compounded a plus/minus rating of +42. A difficult start to last season and a long-term neck injury have diluted some of Daymond's contributions over the last couple of seasons, but full credit to Darryl for the initial move. Not that I don’t miss Oleg Saprykin’s shoot-from-everywhere approach.
THE BEAST
Mike Keenan hired, Jim Playfair fired
Based on the last couple of years of Flames hockey, it's tough to fathom a coach firing after one season at a 43-29-10 record. However, Darryl saw fit to demote head coach Jim Playfair in the summer of 2007. To make matters worse, he hired the infamous “Iron Mike” Keenan, stating that Mike was the “perfect selection” to take his team to the next level. It’s my belief that Keenan set the Flames back several years, with his unwillingness to play youngsters, and his excessive dependence on the likes of Iginla, Jokinen and Kiprusoff. With undue pressure on 23 year old Dion Phaneuf to perform through 25+ minutes a night, Keenan’s tenure sparked the beginning of Phaneuf’s fall to mediocrity as well. To his credit, Iron Mike remains tops in all-time wins among NHL coaches with a number of different teams. However, his inequitable distribution of ice time, and his reluctance to address the positional and strategic aspects of play hurt the Flames’ underlying performance. The team’s PP and PK percentages dropped drastically, and the defensive accountability plummeted, leaving a disaster for Brent Sutter to clean up – a process that is still ongoing. While the team’s performance in the standings was tolerable, Keenan’s regime could be viewed as a damaging period for the organization long term.
Olli Jokinen
Sutter made a splash in the ’08 trade deadline, by acquiring a number one centre to play with Jarome Iginla.
To Calgary:
Olli Jokinen
3rd round draft pick
To Phoenix:
Matthew Lombardi
Brandon Prust
1st round draft pick
I must admit, I was in full support of the deal at the time. Being somewhat unfamiliar with Jokinen’s play, I took one look at his 40+ goal seasons and immediately jumped on board. The wait was over, and the Flames finally had an elite #1 centre. Or did they? Things looked very good early, as Jokinen put up several multi-goal games in his first 10 as a Flame. From there, however, Olli’s play would drop off... and the rest, much to the frustration of Flames fans, is history. Jokinen was then sent to New York for a short sample of Chris Higgins, and a deadweight contract in Ales Kotalik. So essentially, the team gave away a young, speedy centreman in Lombardi and a desperately needed 1st round pick, for Jokinen (twice) and 3 million dollars worth of Ales Kotalik for the remainder of the season – and two more. Again, far be it for me to criticize any move related to Olli Jokinen, because I was strongly in favour of the initial deal that brought him to Calgary.
That ugly blockbuster trade
I have no qualms about dealing your most tradeable asset. However, the Phaneuf deal reeked of desperation, and could prove to be a missed opportunity for the team. An opportunity to deal a very attractive asset to bring in some much needed skill and youth. Instead, Darryl brought in four members of the worst team in the NHL. As the team approaches a potential rebuild, it’s frustrating to consider the impact players or prospects that could have come back in a deal for Dion. Jeff Carter? Jordan Staal? Derek Roy? Obviously speculation there, but it’s clear Darryl didn’t shop around for the best offer, as indicated by several GMs throughout the league. Rather than trading a star for a star, the team gave away its most tradeable asset for four average players, and only two remain with the team. To make matters worse, Darryl threw in Keith Aulie, who was arguably the Flames’ best defensive prospect at the time.
Staios
Did you really feel the need to deal away a 3rd round pick, alongside a serviceable *young* d man for Steve Staios? Did you really think your deadline deal to bring in a slow, 37 year old veteran defenseman would be the difference between making and missing the playoffs? That’s a tough sell, especially with that 2.7 M cap hit for an additional season.
Passing on Cammalleri
Hmm: Great chemistry with Iginla, young, undisputable skill, and a timely scorer (39 goals). When asked if the Flames would be able to sign Cammalleri to an extension under the cap, Darryl responded “we can do whatever we want.” According to Craig Conroy, Cammo was looking for a deal in the neighbourhood of 5M per year. So, clearly Darryl didn’t “want” Cammalleri back. Every time the Flames lose 2-1 games to Minnesota, Columbus or Nashville, I find myself wondering what could have been if the team were to have kept shifty Mike Cammalleri.
Stajan contract extension
First off: offering a 4 year extension to a player that has only played 9 games for you is likely premature. Also: to pay him $4 million in the first two years as a second line centre (at best?) is too much. If we felt it was a poor deal when it was announced late last season, we can take comfort in reviewing Stajan's production so far this season: 2 goals. Yes, that's 2 million per goal. Worst part is, Stajan’s lack of production makes his big contract near impossible to move.
Darryl deserves some credit for building a competitive team from the depths of a very dark period for hockey in Calgary. Darryl was an exciting GM to follow, as he was always prepared to tinker. Whether we agreed or disagreed, he was ever prepared to make adjustments, and rarely stood pat. Unfortunately, Darryl’s moves turned to desperation later on in his tenure, and these decisions could set the team back a number of years. All we can say now is “thank god I’m not Jay Feaster.”
To close, here are some quotes in memory of Darryl Sutter:
"To be quite honest, (fill in the blank here)... So, we have a really good hockey team."
"There are only a handful of elite coaches that could coach this group." So Darryl, would you return to coaching? "Well, I'm one of them... I just don't want to."
"Our goals-for is fine. It's our goals-against that needs work." Earlier this season, when the team was scoring an average of 2.05 goals per game.
"Hey, if the fans want our players to wave their sticks at centre-ice after having the sh*t kicked out of them, we can arrange that," when asked about a post-game salute to the fans.
For additional head-scratching, here are more D-Sutt quotes - courtesy CalgaryPuck:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?p=2864631
Saturday, January 1, 2011
A Holiday Feast(er)
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr. Jay Feaster.
With the recent announcement of Darryl Sutter's resignation, a promotion for the Assistant GM seems an obvious choice for a team in transition - especially halfway through the regular season. Looking at the big picture though, would we have predicted Jay Feaster to be the GM of the Calgary Flames one year ago? That perspective presents a stronger element of surprise.
Many of us lack a detailed understanding of Feaster's history as a General Manager, but there are some events we can look to with his stint in Tampa Bay.
Positives: First off, a Stanley Cup. No matter what way, shape or form, championship titles are tough to dispute. Feaster took a horrific hockey team and turned them into champions. While I don't profess to know the ins and outs of that process, it's an important bullet on his resume. Coupled with an impressive regime with the Hershey Bears, we know the man is capable of assembling a winner.
Negatives: Salary cap mis-management. Feaster was caught in an awkward transition at the outset of the new CBA. Suddenly, he was faced with a number of cup-winning free agents set to hit the market, along with a recently imposed salary cap. Most notably, budding star Vincent Lecavalier was set for free agency, and subsequently signed to an astronomical multi-year extension. As a result, the team was forced to part ways with goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin and, eventually, Brad Richards. This period yielded much of the criticism directed at Feaster over his regime in Tampa. Upon his arrival in Calgary, Jay purposefully addressed those topics, detailing the mistakes he made, and the learning process that took place as a result. A General Manager that is accountable for his mistakes? Boy, that's a new one around here.
In his short stint as Assistant GM in Calgary, Feaster emphasized his "old school" approach as being comparable with Darryl. The only relevant synonym for "old school" in the NHL is a "pre-lockout" style of management. As we've learned, such philosophies fail in a league that continues to move towards speed, skill and youth. Let's hope Jay's self proclaimed "old school" style has some elements of new school as well. After almost 7 months of close observation, you'd think Jay would be able to learn from some of Darryl's mishaps.
What else do we know about Jay Feaster?
Great communicator - media savvy
Strong supporter of Brent Sutter
Doesn't miss an episode of One Tree Hill... Simply because we have no reason to believe otherwise
Found a way to get along with John Tortorella
... Okay, so personally I know very little, but what could the promotion of Jay Feaster mean for the Calgary Flames?
Unfortunately for some passionate fans, Jay's position at the helm does not necessarily mean that aging stars Iginla, Regehr and Kiprusoff will be dealt away for young prospects within the calendar year. My less-than-educated guess would be that no General Manager wants to be known as the guy that took power, and drove the face of the franchise and his friends out of town shortly thereafter. I expect the newly appointed GM to take a more conservative approach to his first season(s) running the team.
Personally, I'm pleased with the transition, because I had no confidence that Darryl and his stubborn ways were going to address the obvious shortfalls of this group. I was tired of hearing him say that goal scoring wasn't a problem, that the Olli-Tangs-Iggy connection was working well, or that he would still trade Phaneuf for a few "impact players" from the Maple Leafs. Given the decision making in recent history, how could we believe that the team wouldn't continue on its downward spiral under Darryl's watch?
It was clear a change was needed. From my perspective, it was clear THIS change was needed. But what will Feaster add to the perpetual carousel that is the Calgary Flames?
All I can say is, at this point, I have no reason to believe Jay Feaster won't perform well as General Manager for this franchise. While the transition may be unfamiliar, or even unpopular, Jay will provide a fresh outlook, and even if only slightly - a new direction. As fans of a 14th place team, what else could we ask for?
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
With the recent announcement of Darryl Sutter's resignation, a promotion for the Assistant GM seems an obvious choice for a team in transition - especially halfway through the regular season. Looking at the big picture though, would we have predicted Jay Feaster to be the GM of the Calgary Flames one year ago? That perspective presents a stronger element of surprise.
Many of us lack a detailed understanding of Feaster's history as a General Manager, but there are some events we can look to with his stint in Tampa Bay.
Positives: First off, a Stanley Cup. No matter what way, shape or form, championship titles are tough to dispute. Feaster took a horrific hockey team and turned them into champions. While I don't profess to know the ins and outs of that process, it's an important bullet on his resume. Coupled with an impressive regime with the Hershey Bears, we know the man is capable of assembling a winner.
Negatives: Salary cap mis-management. Feaster was caught in an awkward transition at the outset of the new CBA. Suddenly, he was faced with a number of cup-winning free agents set to hit the market, along with a recently imposed salary cap. Most notably, budding star Vincent Lecavalier was set for free agency, and subsequently signed to an astronomical multi-year extension. As a result, the team was forced to part ways with goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin and, eventually, Brad Richards. This period yielded much of the criticism directed at Feaster over his regime in Tampa. Upon his arrival in Calgary, Jay purposefully addressed those topics, detailing the mistakes he made, and the learning process that took place as a result. A General Manager that is accountable for his mistakes? Boy, that's a new one around here.
In his short stint as Assistant GM in Calgary, Feaster emphasized his "old school" approach as being comparable with Darryl. The only relevant synonym for "old school" in the NHL is a "pre-lockout" style of management. As we've learned, such philosophies fail in a league that continues to move towards speed, skill and youth. Let's hope Jay's self proclaimed "old school" style has some elements of new school as well. After almost 7 months of close observation, you'd think Jay would be able to learn from some of Darryl's mishaps.
What else do we know about Jay Feaster?
Great communicator - media savvy
Strong supporter of Brent Sutter
Doesn't miss an episode of One Tree Hill... Simply because we have no reason to believe otherwise
Found a way to get along with John Tortorella
... Okay, so personally I know very little, but what could the promotion of Jay Feaster mean for the Calgary Flames?
Unfortunately for some passionate fans, Jay's position at the helm does not necessarily mean that aging stars Iginla, Regehr and Kiprusoff will be dealt away for young prospects within the calendar year. My less-than-educated guess would be that no General Manager wants to be known as the guy that took power, and drove the face of the franchise and his friends out of town shortly thereafter. I expect the newly appointed GM to take a more conservative approach to his first season(s) running the team.
Personally, I'm pleased with the transition, because I had no confidence that Darryl and his stubborn ways were going to address the obvious shortfalls of this group. I was tired of hearing him say that goal scoring wasn't a problem, that the Olli-Tangs-Iggy connection was working well, or that he would still trade Phaneuf for a few "impact players" from the Maple Leafs. Given the decision making in recent history, how could we believe that the team wouldn't continue on its downward spiral under Darryl's watch?
It was clear a change was needed. From my perspective, it was clear THIS change was needed. But what will Feaster add to the perpetual carousel that is the Calgary Flames?
All I can say is, at this point, I have no reason to believe Jay Feaster won't perform well as General Manager for this franchise. While the transition may be unfamiliar, or even unpopular, Jay will provide a fresh outlook, and even if only slightly - a new direction. As fans of a 14th place team, what else could we ask for?
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Segment #4: A Quarterly Review of the Calgary Flames
20 games in the books. Or blogosphere.
In this post, we will take a brief look at segment 4, before addressing some notable aspects of the first quarter of 2010-2011.
BRIEF SEGMENT REVIEW
Hindsight being what it is, our analysis of the 3rd segment foreshadowed much of what Games 16-20 would bring us. One honourable mention goes to Jarome Iginla, who has been on a tear (pronounced tare, not like the crying tear) as of late: 6 goals in 3 games, including a hat trick against the defending cup champions. Unfortunately, the team has looked like the Flames of the early millennium: Lots of Iggy, not much of anything else... including wins.
So how can we assess Iginla’s sudden resurgence? Has he suddenly decided he wants to score? Did he duplicate Rene Bourque’s curve for his own stick? Has he finally practiced what Coach Brent has preached? I would say not. Courtesy Eric Francis of the Calgary Sun on HNIC, Jarome was recently approached by team management and was assured he would not be traded this season. It was confirmed that this took place by Iginla himself, and I see no reason to call that man a liar.
While such news is not particularly ground-breaking for many fans, or perhaps even the man himself, the endless speculation surrounding the captain must have had some impact on his psyche. So, is it merely coincidence that Jarome has looked more relaxed (and less awkward) over the last several games? I would say not. The first 15 games, he lacked an element of confidence on the ice, and made everything look extremely difficult. His play has improved dramatically as of late, and not just in the box scores; he’s shooting from everywhere, playing physical, making the simple plays, and even contributing in his own zone (once in a while). Jarome seems to be playing with confidence, something that had recently been suffocated by scoring slumps, and the endless negativity that followed. Methinks this sudden resurgence of the captain correlates with the vote of confidence from management. One thing is for certain: This version of Iginla cannot be an aberration. This team is not good enough to get by without contributions from its best player.
If we can do anything to help Iggy along with his consistency, we can purchase this t-shirt, because it’s hilarious and would make our pal Jarome smile:
Courtesy Red Mile Blog:
Come on! Iginla, in his teens, with an afro? That’s hilarious! Plus it’s for a good cause, something Jarome also appreciates. We now return to regular programming:
ANALYSIS OF QUARTER #1
If we’ve learned anything from the first quarter of 2010-2011, it’s exactly what we didn’t want to learn: This team is not near skilled enough to play a run-and-gun brand of hockey. This lesson has been brought to you by Brent Sutter for the last 14 months. We’ve now seen what can happen when the Flames try to out-skill the opposition. They can’t compete with any of the powerhouse teams of the NHL when they play that way. So how can you compete with these teams? Let’s take a look at Dave Tippett’s Phoenix Coyotes as a case study:
The Coyotes, amongst ongoing ownership issues, went 50-25-7 in 2009-2010. The team seemed to lack the skills necessary on paper, with an aging blue line and low offensive potential – sound familiar? To put it bluntly, the Phoenix Coyotes were composed of the NHL’s garbage: waiver wire pick-ups, along with inexpensive free agent additions, formulated with players that seemed to be on “last chance” contracts. *The team wasn’t young, it wasn’t a contender, and it wasn’t rebuilding.* Shockingly, player personnel for the team hadn’t been completely re-structured, even after numerous underachieving seasons in recent memory. It looked to be yet another season of 13th-15th place.
Enter Dave Tippett, former coach of the Dallas Stars.
The only thing the Phoenix Coyotes could rely on was a new regime, a new system. Tippett brought a plan. Universally, the team signed up for this plan. Of course, there was one exception: Peter Mueller, who was scratched, and subsequently shipped out of town in exchange for Wojtek Wolski. The team took a “Tippett’s way or the highway” approach, and it worked.
The system was simple: back-pressure, play solid in the neutral zone, block shots, and wait. Wait for an opportunity to score – on an odd man rush, or a PP opportunity. The leaders of the team were not expected to score the most goals, but to best exemplify the benefits of the new system. What’s even more impressive about this regime? While it didn’t work 100% of the time, the opposition had difficulty exploiting it. Every system has a weakness. Fortunately for the Phoenix Coyotes, the weaknesses were few and far between. You couldn’t shut down one player, because every player played the same way. You couldn’t dump and chase, because beyond that clogged neutral zone, one defenseman would stand behind the net and aptly flip the puck back out of the zone. You couldn’t throw 50 shots at Bryzgalov, because 30 of them were blocked before they got to the net. You couldn’t completely limit the offense, because the offense broke you down when you were weakest: odd man rushes, and sitting in the penalty box. The Phoenix Coyotes broke teams down, and did it the same way every night.
So what’s changed for the team this year? That’s right - nothing. After a rough start, The Coyotes sit 11-5-5, 2nd in the Western Conference. They recently swept Western Canada, going 3-0 against Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary. None of these wins were pretty. Each win was by one goal (empty-netters notwithstanding), and the performances didn’t wow anyone.
So what is it about Tippett’s system that differs from Brent Sutter? Almost nothing! We saw a very similar regime from the Avalanche under Joe Sacco. Brent hasn’t reinvented the wheel. Yet the Coyotes have gone 61-30-12 all-time under Dave Tippett, while the Flames sit 48-43-11 under Brent Sutter. The difference between the two teams: commitment.
WHAT’S THE ANSWER?
The Flames lack commitment to the details of the game, which leads to mistakes. No, they don’t need to score more – tried that, failed that. Two and three goal leads have evaporated, as the team takes at least one period off each game. Simply put: The Flames have not been a difficult team to play against through the first quarter. Opposing teams have had the ability to score at will, and have stolen a number of points from the Flames early on this season. Even when 4+ goals are scored by the team, they “find a way to lose.”
6-5 loss to Colorado: You were up 3-1
5-4 loss to Phoenix: You were up 1-0, and gave up 2 goals in less than a minute
7-2 loss to Washington: You were up 2-0 after the first.
5-4 loss to Detroit: You were up 3-1, and then 4-2.
More goals are not the answer.
Smart, opportunistic play is the answer. So how can the Flames be more opportunistic?
***The powerplay!
The team sits at 15.7% effectiveness on the PP. Improvement on where it has been, but by no means effective. Above all, when the Flames have needed a goal, the PP has usually failed them. Allowing players to play to their strengths on the PP will allow for a more *opportunistic* powerplay:
PP1 set up:
Bouwmeester (LW)
Moss (net presence)
Bourque (off-wing)
Iginla (off-wing point man)
Tanguay (off-wing point man, PP QB)
Moss (net presence)
Bourque (off-wing)
Iginla (off-wing point man)
Tanguay (off-wing point man, PP QB)
Bouwmeester is quick, and has decent hands around the net. He’s never had a booming shot from the point, so allow him to make plays in tight.
Moss gets all of his goals from within 5 feet of the net. He’s a big body that can muck it up in front of the net, something this team desperately needs on a consistent basis.
Bourque has become more of a trigger man on the PP as of late. Serving as a threat along the wall could clear up space for Iginla and Tanguay as well.
Iginla has always been the go-to guy on the PP. So don’t put him along the half wall, let him take those one-timed shots from the point. If he’s covered, there’s likely room to dish it off to Bourque.
Tanguay’s playmaking ability can be very useful from the point. If nothing is available, he’s also demonstrated an ability to get shots to the net through traffic. Seems like a win-win to me!
*To Brent’s credit, he has tried all of these possibilities intermittently throughout the first quarter. Putting it all together and leaving it alone would be the key!
PP2 set up:
Hagman (LW)
Glencross (net presence)
Jokinen (off-wing)
Babchuk (off-wing point man)
Giordano (off-wing point man, PP QB)
Glencross (net presence)
Jokinen (off-wing)
Babchuk (off-wing point man)
Giordano (off-wing point man, PP QB)
Hagman has shown flashes on the powerplay, and has the quickness and tenacity to dig pucks out of the corner and create something out of nothing.
Glencross is what he is: a gritty player that has shown flashes of offensive ability.
Say what you will about Jokinen, he has always had a pretty lethal shot. So let him serve as a trigger option, and potentially open up space for the point men as well.
All I’ve heard about Babchuk is that he is a powerplay specialist, with a bomb of a shot. Jay Feaster said that he was brought in because the Flames had “missed that big shot from the point.” Well, let’s see it.
Giordano is the perfect PP quarterback: he’s effective at bringing the puck into the zone, he sees the ice very well, and he can get shots through to the net when appropriate.
WHAT LIES AHEAD?
Through one quarter, the team is 8-11-1
17 points, 14th in the Western Conference
The ongoing assertion is that 96 points gets you into the playoffs. So let’s break down the next 3 quarters, in order to see what’s needed from the team through December to April:
Q2, 26 pts in 20 GP: 13-7-0
Q3, 26 pts in 20 GP: 13-7-0
Q4 , 27 pts in 22 GP: 13-8-1
Okay, so I really just divided the point totals by 3, but I think it gives us smaller segments with which to address. Basically, the team will have to maintain a 65% win percentage for the balance of the season. Good teams usually accumulate a 60% win percentage, so this represents a significant challenge for the team. What can they do to drastically improve on an 8-11-1 record?
Play Brent Sutter Hockey. From the same guy that brought the New Jersey Devils 51 wins in 2008-2009, mostly without star goaltender Martin Brodeur. Brent Sutter CAN be part of the solution in Calgary. Play a simple, intelligent game, and capitalize on your opponent’s mistakes. You’ve learned that you can’t survive in skills-competition games against the likes of Detroit, Washington, or Colorado. Good news! Neither can the Phoenix Coyotes. They play their own, simplistic style to break down the opposition – and accumulate 50 wins in the process.
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