The Resurgence of Spare Parts

This past offseason, Darryl Doom Sutter had the hockey world scratching its collective head. While understandably limited in his cap flexibility, Sutter added three forwards that had recently plummeted in value – Olli Jokinen, Alex Tanguay and Brendan Morrison. Coming off career lows, these players fit in perfectly with a group of underachieving Calgary Flames, a team that continued to get older and less productive. Coupled with the signing of two enforcers in Raitis Ivanans and Tim Jackman, the direction of this team seemed clouded as ever.

Coming off a disappointing campaign in 2009-2010, I was desperately searching optimism: At least a handful of these players would bounce back from career lows, right? From the perspective of individual productivity, this team couldn’t possibly get worse… Could it?

Wrong. For half a season, the Calgary Flames did just that. Jarome Iginla was merely invisible, Miikka Kiprusoff looked human, and the likes of Jay Bouwmeester, Robyn Regehr and Ian White were fading rapidly from relevance. The team spiralled into 14^th place. To make matters worse, Darryl began to shift the deck chairs once again, swinging a deal with the Hurricanes. At first glance, the move seemed counter productive: why trade for another fourth liner, and who the heck is Anton Babchuk?

From 14^th place, many of us (myself included) spent more time analyzing the team’s trade bait and draft positioning, rather than its game-to-game performance. I was especially guilty of this, as I stopped looking at five-game segments, and began blogging entirely on big-picture concepts: contracts, buyouts and trade scenarios. Frankly, there wasn’t enough to write about between intervals. You can only vent on Jokinen’s ineffectiveness and Bourque’s disinterest so long before it becomes, well, boring. Eventually, Jay Feaster would sub in for Darryl Sutter, and despite what the organization would preach about a playoff push, many of us took the shift at GM to indicate an early start to next season.

Then, something happened. None of us on the outside can say for certain, but to say that Feaster’s cheerleading was the missing ingredient is not entirely realistic. Jay did, however, take one simple approach: drain the deadweight contracts, and allow Brent Sutter and his staff to coach the team in isolation. Not exactly rocket science, but a shift in philosophy nonetheless. A dose of clarity to an organization desperate for some direction.

The Flames have gone 18-6-6 in 2011, earning 42 of a possible 60 points. They currently sit 6^th in the Western Conference. Games at hand and shootout points considered, the team is by no means a lock for the post season. However, there is reason to celebrate a complete reversal from its dwindling status in 14^th, and a realistic shot at a playoff spot. Special teams progress has had a significant impact on the Flames position. The team sits at 18.4% on the PP, and has climbed to an 82.6% efficiency rate on the PK. Above all, back in October, who would have expected the Flames to sit top-ten among the NHL in goals-for? After 68 games, the team sits 6^th in the NHL in goal scoring - in the mix with Detroit, Chicago, Vancouver, Philadelphia and Boston. A 9-1 win over the Avalanche plays a big part in this rating, but an impressive stat nonetheless.

The team’s season-end result comes second to its impressive resurgence. I’m prepared to take a seat; I thought I was so clever in my early and steadfast deadline predictions back in January (http://wizwonders.blogspot.com/2011/01/trade-deadline-predictions-5-players-on.html) but I went 0-for-5. At the time, the team’s success seemed no more than an average team on a hot-streak. Well, safe to say 3 months of solid hockey is more than a hot-streak. This is a good team. Not an elite team, not a powerhouse contender, but a good team. So what fundamental components can we point to, in this resurgence of spare parts?

BRENT SUTTER

As mentioned earlier, Brent’s role with the team shifted once Feaster took the reins. BSutt has had the freedom to assemble the line-ups based entirely on performance, without any consideration for seniority or salary implications. The Jokinen-Iginla experiments came to an end, and both players have been streaking since. Stajan and Hagman’s soft play (6.5M cap hit worth) has landed them bottom-six minutes, and the likes of Glencross and Moss have been given the green light to build on their solid two-way performance. Brent has also found more suitable roles for his D pairings, allocating ice-time more conducive to individual strengths. Special consideration goes to the utilization of Anton Babchuk, who has played some protected even strength minutes, alongside significant PP exposure to use that big (!) shot of his. Credit to Kent Wilson of FlamesNation, who posted an in-depth assessment of Babchuk and Jokinen yesterday:

http://flamesnation.ca/2011/3/7/thoughts-on-jokinen-and-other-things

BALANCE

Brent’s savvy match-ups and pairings have allowed the team to develop some consistency, and work towards that immeasurable, intangible factor: chemistry. I’m still iffy on the term “chemistry,” but perhaps “familiarity” is a more suitable explanation. Injuries have played a role in it, but locked pairings of Iggy-Tanguay, Jokinen-Glencross, Stajan-Jackman, and Backlund-Hagman have established familiarity and developed a balanced attack throughout the line-up. Most importantly, an effective one-two punch in the top six, with Jokinen and Glencross evolving as a shutdown tandem that scores goals against top opposition. This has reduced some of the workload for the top line, and they’ve capitalized on it (Iggy: 8 pts in last 4 GP, sits 8^th in league scoring). This has created a ripple effect on the rest of the line-up, as unusual candidates for bottom-six minutes (Bourque, Stajan, Hagman) are able to work through some favourable match-ups to generate opportunities. Do the Flames possess a scary no. 1 line? No. This team carries 3 lines that can contribute on the score sheet, and a 4^th line that has the ability to outperform 4^th line opposition. To me, continuity has allowed for a more balanced attack throughout the roster, which has been a fundamental factor in the turnaround of this team.

THAT SHUTDOWN TANDEM

The departure of Ian White finally put an end to the Regehr-White pairing. An injury to Steve Staios limited Brent’s ability to couple Steady Steve with Jay Bouwmeester, for yet another attempt at an already failed experiment. For whatever reason, coupling Bouwmeester with Regehr hadn’t been tried with any regularity. Doesn’t it make sense to pair your two top-minute defensemen together, or at least try it? Well, that day finally came - and the rest is history. The shutdown pairing of Jbo and Regehr has combined to boast a +17 rating against top opposition players. Regehr’s solid game has allowed Bouwmeester to make use of his own strengths. In return, Jay’s speed and puck-moving ability have added components that compliment Robyn’s game. This tandem has been solid and consistent against the NHL’s best, and serves as a primary factor in Kiprusoff’s return to form.  

ONE CONCERN: USE OF THE BACK-UP

I know. I’m tired of this debate too.

For many years, Kiprusoff has carried the load: partly because he’s a world-class goaltender, and partly due to a lack of confidence in the team’s back-up. As it stands now, Kipper has started 20 games in a row. While I don’t question his conditioning or durability, I think it’s important to make use of your back-up goaltender, because that’s why the position exists. The only way to establish a reputable back-up is to allow him to play.

Karlsson has shown he can play at this level, and will need another opportunity. Not only for the sake of Kiprusoff and a potential playoff drive, but also for the long-term direction of the team. The organization has some important decisions to make this offseason (Karlsson vs. Irving), and will need a greater body of work to evaluate. Here’s hoping Karlsson plays against Phoenix in the second of back-to-back games, but I won’t hold my breath. I suppose you can save the criticism of a team that's playing 0.700 hockey.

To wrap up, the resurgence of the Calgary Flames has not only brought the team back to league-wide relevance, but generated a renewed excitement throughout the city. The team is winning games through consistent play, along with the odd lucky bounce. In other words: the Flames are finding ways to win – a characteristic of good hockey teams. Will they make the playoffs? Here’s hoping, but at least there’s some excitement game-to-game, and that’s what being a fan is all about.

Go Flames Go!

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Trade Deadline Predictions: 5 Players On Their Way Out

A recent surge by the Calgary Flames certainly complicates the focus of the organization heading into trade season. My view? Jay Feaster was handed the reigns on an "acting" basis to make changes, and one month of solid hockey isn't going to fix the underlying shortcomings of the team. Regardless of any playoff pursuit, I expect the Flames to be sellers by the deadline. That is: shipping out veteran contributors for younger options - be it picks or unproven youngsters, to spur an eventual youth movement in Calgary.

For starters, here are some key points to remember about Jay Feaster:

1) He has expressed an intent to obtain value for *pending free agents*
2) His goal is to become more *mobile* on defense. He emphasized the importance of quick, puck moving defense in today's game
3) He plans to surround the "core" with players that can commit to Brent's style on a *consistent* basis. In other words, Feaster intends to build the team around Brent. Agree or disagree, at least the plan has an element of consistency to it.
4) He has expressed a desire to re-stock the team's draft picks. As it stands now, the Flames have 1 pick in the top 100 for the upcoming draft. Should Feaster prevail, we can expect a number of mid-level picks heading West this February. 

One rule: We would all love to trade Ales Kotalik and Olli Jokinen for draft picks and skate sharpeners. The reality? No organzation would be willing to take on those contracts, even if they find some absurd reason to give up assets in order to acquire them. I'll try to remain as realistic as possible when addressing potential trade components on the Flames. In doing so, I'll steer clear of these deadweight contracts in order to  set fourth reasonable predictions.

5 players on their way out of Calgary by February 28, 2011:

ROBYN REGEHR (2 years remaining, no-movement clause)

It will be tough to see Reggie go, but his inflated trade value around the leave presents an opportunity that shouldn't - and won't - be passed up. Compounded with 2 more years at a shade over 4 million per, Regehr's trade value is at its peak, and the Flames strength on defense would allow the team to manage without. Unlike, let's say, Jarome Iginla's offensive contributions. Given the team's inconsistency in recent years, one of the leaders - Iginla or Regehr - is bound to be dealt. For my money, it's more realistic to replace a shutdown defenseman than an all star, franchise-leading goal scorer. 

Comparable Transactions
- Scott Hannan for Tomas Fleischmann
- Michal Roszival for Wojtek Wolski

Potential Return
Here's the best news - given recent transactions around the league, a deal involving Regehr would garner a hefty return - potentially involving a 1st round pick, along with some youthful offensive depth.

CURTIS GLENCROSS (Pending UFA)

Glencross was a bargain signing in the summer of '08. While I've been a big fan of his tenacity and underrated skill set, Glencross' contributions have been wildly inconsistent - an attribute that has plagued the entire team in recent memory. Curtis has a club membership to Brent's doghouse, and has expressed frustration with his limited opportunity at a top-six role on the team. With this in mind, it seems unlikely that Glencross would be re-signed by the team this summer. Expect Feaster to ship him off and acquire an asset while the option is still available to do so. He would be a low-risk, depth acquisition for a number of teams - most likely of the contending variety.

Comparable Transactions
- Dominic Moore for a 2nd rd pick
- Raffi Torres for Nathan Paetsch, 2nd rd pick

Potential Return - 3 Scenarios
1) Strong team seeking bottom-6 depth:
Glencross for 3rd rd pick
2) Lower seed team, looking for an affordable top-6 option:
Glencross for 2nd rd pick (e.g. Rene Bourque acquisition by CGY)
3) Playoff team looking to ship off an expiring contract of its own - unlikely to re-sign:
Glencross for Bergfors
Glencross for Upshall

Given the desperate nature of the trade deadline, we can expect a team to give up too much for a versatile, energy player like Glencross. Comparable transactions from last year's deadline (see above) bode well for the Flames in this case.

NIKLAS HAGMAN (1 year remaining)

Nik Hagman is what he is: a 31 year old, speedy Finnish winger, that could be a valuable asset to any team... should he find a way to improve his consistency. Based on Feaster's intentions to turn the page with this team, I don't see a scenario wherein Hagman survives the transition. As a capable secondary scoring option, his trade value hasn't completely deteriorated. Unlike Glencross, it's difficult to equate Hagman's deficiencies to a lack of work ethic. He moves his feet, can crash and bang along the wall, and provides some much needed energy for the team. Unfortunately, Hagman simply isn't able to "finnish" (no pun intended). Perhaps his hustle would be rewarded with a more offensively potent line-up, skating alongside players not named Stajan, Jokinen or Kotalik.

Comparable Transactions
- Jeff Halpern for Teddy Purcell, 3rd rd pick
- Matt D'Agostini for Aaron Palushaj

Potential Return
Hagman's additional year under contract helps his trade value. A 2nd rd pick would be a steal, but Hagman is more likely to yield a 3rd rd pick, or mid-level prospect. He's a viable option to re-stock a pick in the top 100 for the upcoming draft, a goal clearly outlined by Jay Feaster.

BRENDAN MORRISON (Pending UFA) 

Morrison has proved to be an impressive value signing for the Flames this season. When he isn't contributing on the scoresheet, he's winning face-offs, killing penalties and finding some way to make his linemates better. Brendan has played well on lines 1-4, at centre and on the wing. Luckily for the Flames, Morrison now represents a valuable spare part for any playoff team. With 4 NHL options at centre (Jokinen, Stajan, Backlund, Moss) and viable options in Abbotsford (Wahl, Stone, Armstrong), it seems very unlikely that Feaster would look to re-sign a 35 year old depth centreman. The good news? Morrison has created a market for his services that was non-existent a mere 5 months ago. 

Comparable Transactions
- Scott Walker for a 7th rd pick
- Jamie Langenbrunner for a conditional 3rd rd pick

Potential Return
Given his age, Morrison's expiring, pro-rated $725,000 contract serves as an asset, as it gives any organization the ability to evaluate his performance in a small snapshot. This creates some flexibility in the offseason, with no long-term commitments or cap obligations beyond this season. At age 35, the ceiling may be limited, but Morrison's versatility could render a 4th rd pick, which would contribute to the inevitable youth movement in Calgary. 

ANTON BABCHUK (Pending UFA)

Since his arrival on the scene, Babchuk has performed as advertised. He's a 5th/6th defenseman, often protected from top line competition, and serves primarily as a powerplay specialist. His shutdown ability is limited, but his overall defensive game has progressed in his short stint with the Flames. Babchuk leads all Flames defensemen with 4 PP goals, and - as advertised -  does possess a heavy shot from the back end (2nd only to our hero: Ales Kotalik). 

While we're at it, here's an interesting comparison from The 4th Line Blog:

Babchuk-14 Points in last 34 games. 
Phaneuf-11 Points in last 33 games.

... Just provides a little somethin' to giggle at. Babchuk has been a capable depth defender, and brings a secret threat on the powerplay. So, what's the market for a depth defenseman like Babs for the stretch run?

Comparable Transactions
- Martin Skoula for 5th rd pick
- Shane O'Brien for Ryan Parent

As a one-dimensional defenseman, the return on Anton Babchuk is limited. Nevertheless, expect Feaster to find a taker on this PP specialist, and attain a late round pick (5th/6th rd) or mid-level prospect in return.

And so ends my predictions for the upcoming trade deadline. Remember, these were assembled based on what we've heard from JayFe to this point, and do not necessarily reflect my own preferences. Look forward to hearing some of your expectations for the deadline! 

Here's what we know for sure: this is an intriguing time to follow the Calgary Flames. 

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Darryl Sutter: The Beauty... and the Beast

Welcome to the celebration of Darryl Sutter's tenure as GM of the Calgary Flames. We are going to drink hard early on and rejoice some of the great memories, before the hangover kicks in and we begin to feel a tad more cynical about Darryl's tenure. Oh yeah: it's Beauty and the Beast themed, so bring your masks and ball gowns.

THE BEAUTY

Kiprusoff

This one goes without saying: Sutter dealt a 2nd round pick to SJ for Kipper, which paid immediate dividends, and now represents a huge turning point for the organization. 

Tanguay

This refers to the original trade for Tanguay in 2005. Leopold and a 2nd round pick for a 26 year old, cup clinching goal scorer seemed to be a bargain. His 80+ points worth of playmaking alongside Iggy wasn't bad either. Tangs then managed 58 points in a checking role under Keenan the following season. He was a major impact player for the Flames, and the deal that brought him to Calgary proved to be a steal.

Cammalleri

Speaking of Tanguay, he has since admitted he asked for a trade that final season, and his request was met in the '08 draft. Tanguay was traded to the Canadiens for a 1st round pick, a pick that was then dealt to LA along with a 2nd round selection for Mike Cammalleri. So, Darryl essentially dished off an unhappy player, and slightly shifted the team’s draft position in order to acquire Cammalleri several minutes later - while maintaining a 1st round pick. Not bad, Darryl. Cammalleri would go on to score a career high 39 goals and 43 assists in his only season with the Flames.

Bourque

Minutes after free agency opens on July 1, Darryl avoids the free agent frenzy and trades a conditional 2nd round pick to Chicago for Rene Bourque, a 3rd/4th line penalty killer for the Blackhawks. Rene had tallied 33 goals in 3 years with the Hawks (6 short handed). Admittedly, I sure didn't think much of the deal at the time. The undrafted winger has scored 20+ goals in two full seasons with the Flames, and is on pace for 26 this year. While inconsistent, he's shown signs of growth in his offensive contributions, despite some battles with injury along the way. Re-signing Bourque to a multi-year extension worth around 3.3M per season could prove to be a bargain as well.

Giordano

A diamond in the rough, as they say, and rough is the key word here. Giordano was undrafted and plucked out of the OHL by Sutter. He spent 3 seasons with the organization, before a contract dispute landed him in Russia for a year. Clearly, there were no hard feelings, as Darryl went right back at Gio and signed him to return to the Flames the following season. Since that point, we have witnessed the steady maturity of a very solid NHL d man. He's been one of the team's most consistent players over the last couple of seasons, and continues to evolve into a very dependable player in every facet of the game. Earlier on this season, Giordano was extended long-term, with a cap hit of 4.02M. A number that, presumably falls well below the money he would have collected this July 1st, as he was said to be one of the top 3 pending free agent defensemen this summer.

Langkow

Given Daymond's current status with the team (and possibly his career), this mention is likely to fall on deaf ears. To me, there's no doubt the team misses his solid, two-way consistency. As far as the transaction itself, all we need to ask ourselves is "where are Denis Gauthier and Oleg Saprykin playing these days?" That was the deal that brought Langkow to Calgary in 2005. In his first 4 seasons as a Flame, Langks posted 20+ goals consistently, and compounded a plus/minus rating of +42. A difficult start to last season and a long-term neck injury have diluted some of Daymond's contributions over the last couple of seasons, but full credit to Darryl for the initial move. Not that I don’t miss Oleg Saprykin’s shoot-from-everywhere approach. 

THE BEAST

Mike Keenan hired, Jim Playfair fired

Based on the last couple of years of Flames hockey, it's tough to fathom a coach firing after one season at a 43-29-10 record. However, Darryl saw fit to demote head coach Jim Playfair in the summer of 2007. To make matters worse, he hired the infamous “Iron Mike” Keenan, stating that Mike was the “perfect selection” to take his team to the next level. It’s my belief that Keenan set the Flames back several years, with his unwillingness to play youngsters, and his excessive dependence on the likes of Iginla, Jokinen and Kiprusoff. With undue pressure on 23 year old Dion Phaneuf to perform through 25+ minutes a night, Keenan’s tenure sparked the beginning of Phaneuf’s fall to mediocrity as well. To his credit, Iron Mike remains tops in all-time wins among NHL coaches with a number of different teams. However, his inequitable distribution of ice time, and his reluctance to address the positional and strategic aspects of play hurt the Flames’ underlying performance. The team’s PP and PK percentages dropped drastically, and the defensive accountability plummeted, leaving a disaster for Brent Sutter to clean up – a process that is still ongoing. While the team’s performance in the standings was tolerable, Keenan’s regime could be viewed as a damaging period for the organization long term.

Olli Jokinen

Sutter made a splash in the ’08 trade deadline, by acquiring a number one centre to play with Jarome Iginla.

To Calgary:
Olli Jokinen
3rd round draft pick

To Phoenix:
Matthew Lombardi
Brandon Prust
1st round draft pick

I must admit, I was in full support of the deal at the time. Being somewhat unfamiliar with Jokinen’s play, I took one look at his 40+ goal seasons and immediately jumped on board. The wait was over, and the Flames finally had an elite #1 centre. Or did they? Things looked very good early, as Jokinen put up several multi-goal games in his first 10 as a Flame. From there, however, Olli’s play would drop off... and the rest, much to the frustration of Flames fans, is history. Jokinen was then sent to New York for a short sample of Chris Higgins, and a deadweight contract in Ales Kotalik. So essentially, the team gave away a young, speedy centreman in Lombardi and a desperately needed 1st round pick, for Jokinen (twice) and 3 million dollars worth of Ales Kotalik for the remainder of the season – and two more. Again, far be it for me to criticize any move related to Olli Jokinen, because I was strongly in favour of the initial deal that brought him to Calgary.

That ugly blockbuster trade

I have no qualms about dealing your most tradeable asset. However, the Phaneuf deal reeked of desperation, and could prove to be a missed opportunity for the team. An opportunity to deal a very attractive asset to bring in some much needed skill and youth. Instead, Darryl brought in four members of the worst team in the NHL. As the team approaches a potential rebuild, it’s frustrating to consider the impact players or prospects that could have come back in a deal for Dion. Jeff Carter? Jordan Staal? Derek Roy? Obviously speculation there, but it’s clear Darryl didn’t shop around for the best offer, as indicated by several GMs throughout the league. Rather than trading a star for a star, the team gave away its most tradeable asset for four average players, and only two remain with the team. To make matters worse, Darryl threw in Keith Aulie, who was arguably the Flames’ best defensive prospect at the time. 

Staios

Did you really feel the need to deal away a 3rd round pick, alongside a serviceable *young* d man for Steve Staios? Did you really think your deadline deal to bring in a slow, 37 year old veteran defenseman would be the difference between making and missing the playoffs? That’s a tough sell, especially with that 2.7 M cap hit for an additional season.

Passing on Cammalleri

Hmm: Great chemistry with Iginla, young, undisputable skill, and a timely scorer (39 goals). When asked if the Flames would be able to sign Cammalleri to an extension under the cap, Darryl responded “we can do whatever we want.” According to Craig Conroy, Cammo was looking for a deal in the neighbourhood of 5M per year. So, clearly Darryl didn’t “want” Cammalleri back. Every time the Flames lose 2-1 games to Minnesota, Columbus or Nashville, I find myself wondering what could have been if the team were to have kept shifty Mike Cammalleri. ... The one that got away.

Stajan contract extension

First off: offering a 4 year extension to a player that has only played 9 games for you is likely premature. Also: to pay him $4 million in the first two years as a second line centre (at best?) is too much. If we felt it was a poor deal when it was announced late last season, we can take comfort in reviewing Stajan's production so far this season: 2 goals. Yes, that's 2 million per goal. Worst part is, Stajan’s lack of production makes his big contract near impossible to move.

Darryl deserves some credit for building a competitive team from the depths of a very dark period for hockey in Calgary. Darryl was an exciting GM to follow, as he was always prepared to tinker. Whether we agreed or disagreed, he was ever prepared to make adjustments, and rarely stood pat. Unfortunately, Darryl’s moves turned to desperation later on in his tenure, and these decisions could set the team back a number of years. All we can say now is “thank god I’m not Jay Feaster.”

To close, here are some quotes in memory of Darryl Sutter:

"To be quite honest, (fill in the blank here)... So, we have a really good hockey team."

"There are only a handful of elite coaches that could coach this group." So Darryl, would you return to coaching? "Well, I'm one of them... I just don't want to."

"Our goals-for is fine. It's our goals-against that needs work." Earlier this season, when the team was scoring an average of 2.05 goals per game.

"Hey, if the fans want our players to wave their sticks at centre-ice after having the sh*t kicked out of them, we can arrange that," when asked about a post-game salute to the fans.

For additional head-scratching, here are more D-Sutt quotes - courtesy CalgaryPuck:

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?p=2864631

A Holiday Feast(er)

Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr. Jay Feaster.

With the recent announcement of Darryl Sutter's resignation, a promotion for the Assistant GM seems an obvious choice for a team in transition - especially halfway through the regular season. Looking at the big picture though, would we have predicted Jay Feaster to be the GM of the Calgary Flames one year ago? That perspective presents a stronger element of surprise.

Many of us lack a detailed understanding of Feaster's history as a General Manager, but there are some events we can look to with his stint in Tampa Bay.

Positives: First off, a Stanley Cup. No matter what way, shape or form, championship titles are tough to dispute. Feaster took a horrific hockey team and turned them into champions. While I don't profess to know the ins and outs of that process, it's an important bullet on his resume. Coupled with an impressive regime with the Hershey Bears, we know the man is capable of assembling a winner.

Negatives: Salary cap mis-management. Feaster was caught in an awkward transition at the outset of the new CBA. Suddenly, he was faced with a number of cup-winning free agents set to hit the market, along with a recently imposed salary cap. Most notably, budding star Vincent Lecavalier was set for free agency, and subsequently signed to an astronomical multi-year extension. As a result, the team was forced to part ways with goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin and, eventually, Brad Richards. This period yielded much of the criticism directed at Feaster over his regime in Tampa. Upon his arrival in Calgary, Jay purposefully addressed those topics, detailing the mistakes he made, and the learning process that took place as a result. A General Manager that is accountable for his mistakes? Boy, that's a new one around here.

In his short stint as Assistant GM in Calgary, Feaster emphasized his "old school" approach as being comparable with Darryl. The only relevant synonym for "old school" in the NHL is a "pre-lockout" style of management. As we've learned, such philosophies fail in a league that continues to move towards speed, skill and youth. Let's hope Jay's self proclaimed "old school" style has some elements of new school as well. After almost 7 months of close observation, you'd think Jay would be able to learn from some of Darryl's mishaps. 

What else do we know about Jay Feaster?

Great communicator - media savvy

Strong supporter of Brent Sutter

Doesn't miss an episode of One Tree Hill... Simply because we have no reason to believe otherwise

Found a way to get along with John Tortorella

... Okay, so personally I know very little, but what could the promotion of Jay Feaster mean for the Calgary Flames? 

Unfortunately for some passionate fans, Jay's position at the helm does not necessarily mean that aging stars Iginla, Regehr and Kiprusoff will be dealt away for young prospects within the calendar year. My less-than-educated guess would be that no General Manager wants to be known as the guy that took power, and drove the face of the franchise and his friends out of town shortly thereafter. I expect the newly appointed GM to take a more conservative approach to his first season(s) running the team.

Personally, I'm pleased with the transition, because I had no confidence that Darryl and his stubborn ways were going to address the obvious shortfalls of this group. I was tired of hearing him say that goal scoring wasn't a problem, that the Olli-Tangs-Iggy connection was working well, or that he would still trade Phaneuf for a few "impact players" from the Maple Leafs. Given the decision making in recent history, how could we believe that the team wouldn't continue on its downward spiral under Darryl's watch?

It was clear a change was needed. From my perspective, it was clear THIS change was needed. But what will Feaster add to the perpetual carousel that is the Calgary Flames?

All I can say is, at this point, I have no reason to believe Jay Feaster won't perform well as General Manager for this franchise. While the transition may be unfamiliar, or even unpopular, Jay will provide a fresh outlook, and even if only slightly - a new direction. As fans of a 14th place team, what else could we ask for?


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Segment #4: A Quarterly Review of the Calgary Flames

20 games in the books. Or blogosphere. 

In this post, we will take a brief look at segment 4, before addressing some notable aspects of the first quarter of 2010-2011.     

BRIEF SEGMENT REVIEW

Hindsight being what it is, our analysis of the 3^rd segment foreshadowed much of what Games 16-20 would bring us. One honourable mention goes to Jarome Iginla, who has been on a tear (pronounced tare, not like the crying tear) as of late: 6 goals in 3 games, including a hat trick against the defending cup champions. Unfortunately, the team has looked like the Flames of the early millennium: Lots of Iggy, not much of anything else... including wins.

So how can we assess Iginla’s sudden resurgence? Has he suddenly decided he wants to score? Did he duplicate Rene Bourque’s curve for his own stick? Has he finally practiced what Coach Brent has preached? I would say not. Courtesy Eric Francis of the Calgary Sun on HNIC, Jarome was recently approached by team management and was assured he would not be traded this season. It was confirmed that this took place by Iginla himself, and I see no reason to call that man a liar.

While such news is not particularly ground-breaking for many fans, or perhaps even the man himself, the endless speculation surrounding the captain must have had some impact on his psyche. So, is it merely coincidence that Jarome has looked more relaxed (and less awkward) over the last several games? I would say not. The first 15 games, he lacked an element of confidence on the ice, and made everything look extremely difficult. His play has improved dramatically as of late, and not just in the box scores; he’s shooting from everywhere, playing physical, making the simple plays, and even contributing in his own zone (once in a while). Jarome seems to be playing with confidence, something that had recently been suffocated by scoring slumps, and the endless negativity that followed. Methinks this sudden resurgence of the captain correlates with the vote of confidence from management. One thing is for certain: This version of Iginla cannot be an aberration. This team is not good enough to get by without contributions from its best player.

If we can do anything to help Iggy along with his consistency, we can purchase this t-shirt, because it’s hilarious and would make our pal Jarome smile:

Courtesy Red Mile Blog:

http://redmileblog.com/2010/11/kidsport-calgary/

Come on! Iginla, in his teens, with an afro? That’s hilarious! Plus it’s for a good cause, something Jarome also appreciates. We now return to regular programming:

ANALYSIS OF QUARTER #1

If we’ve learned anything from the first quarter of 2010-2011, it’s exactly what we didn’t want to learn: This team is not near skilled enough to play a run-and-gun brand of hockey. This lesson has been brought to you by Brent Sutter for the last 14 months. We’ve now seen what can happen when the Flames try to out-skill the opposition. They can’t compete with any of the powerhouse teams of the NHL when they play that way. So how can you compete with these teams? Let’s take a look at Dave Tippett’s Phoenix Coyotes as a case study:

The Coyotes, amongst ongoing ownership issues, went 50-25-7 in 2009-2010. The team seemed to lack the skills necessary on paper, with an aging blue line and low offensive potential – sound familiar? To put it bluntly, the Phoenix Coyotes were composed of the NHL’s garbage: waiver wire pick-ups, along with inexpensive free agent additions, formulated with players that seemed to be on “last chance” contracts. *The team wasn’t young, it wasn’t a contender, and it wasn’t rebuilding.* Shockingly, player personnel for the team hadn’t been completely re-structured, even after numerous underachieving seasons in recent memory. It looked to be yet another season of 13^th-15^th place.

Enter Dave Tippett, former coach of the Dallas Stars.

The only thing the Phoenix Coyotes could rely on was a new regime, a new system. Tippett brought a plan. Universally, the team signed up for this plan. Of course, there was one exception: Peter Mueller, who was scratched, and subsequently shipped out of town in exchange for Wojtek Wolski. The team took a “Tippett’s way or the highway” approach, and it worked.

The system was simple: back-pressure, play solid in the neutral zone, block shots, and wait. Wait for an opportunity to score – on an odd man rush, or a PP opportunity. The leaders of the team were not expected to score the most goals, but to best exemplify the benefits of the new system. What’s even more impressive about this regime? While it didn’t work 100% of the time, the opposition had difficulty exploiting it. Every system has a weakness. Fortunately for the Phoenix Coyotes, the weaknesses were few and far between. You couldn’t shut down one player, because every player played the same way. You couldn’t dump and chase, because beyond that clogged neutral zone, one defenseman would stand behind the net and aptly flip the puck back out of the zone. You couldn’t throw 50 shots at Bryzgalov, because 30 of them were blocked before they got to the net. You couldn’t completely limit the offense, because the offense broke you down when you were weakest: odd man rushes, and sitting in the penalty box. The Phoenix Coyotes broke teams down, and did it the same way every night.

So what’s changed for the team this year? That’s right - nothing. After a rough start, The Coyotes sit 11-5-5, 2^nd in the Western Conference. They recently swept Western Canada, going 3-0 against Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary. None of these wins were pretty. Each win was by one goal (empty-netters notwithstanding), and the performances didn’t wow anyone.

So what is it about Tippett’s system that differs from Brent Sutter? Almost nothing! We saw a very similar regime from the Avalanche under Joe Sacco. Brent hasn’t reinvented the wheel. Yet the Coyotes have gone 61-30-12 all-time under Dave Tippett, while the Flames sit 48-43-11 under Brent Sutter. The difference between the two teams: commitment.

WHAT’S THE ANSWER?

The Flames lack commitment to the details of the game, which leads to mistakes. No, they don’t need to score more – tried that, failed that. Two and three goal leads have evaporated, as the team takes at least one period off each game. Simply put: The Flames have not been a difficult team to play against through the first quarter. Opposing teams have had the ability to score at will, and have stolen a number of points from the Flames early on this season. Even when 4+ goals are scored by the team, they “find a way to lose.”

6-5 loss to Colorado: You were up 3-1

5-4 loss to Phoenix: You were up 1-0, and gave up 2 goals in less than a minute

7-2 loss to Washington: You were up 2-0 after the first.

5-4 loss to Detroit: You were up 3-1, and then 4-2.

More goals are not the answer.

Smart, opportunistic play is the answer. So how can the Flames be more opportunistic?

***The powerplay!

The team sits at 15.7% effectiveness on the PP. Improvement on where it has been, but by no means effective. Above all, when the Flames have needed a goal, the PP has usually failed them. Allowing players to play to their strengths on the PP will allow for a more *opportunistic* powerplay:

PP1 set up:

Bouwmeester (LW)             
Moss (net presence)              
Bourque (off-wing)

Iginla (off-wing point man)
Tanguay (off-wing point man, PP QB)

Bouwmeester is quick, and has decent hands around the net. He’s never had a booming shot from the point, so allow him to make plays in tight.  

Moss gets all of his goals from within 5 feet of the net. He’s a big body that can muck it up in front of the net, something this team desperately needs on a consistent basis.

Bourque has become more of a trigger man on the PP as of late. Serving as a threat along the wall could clear up space for Iginla and Tanguay as well.

Iginla has always been the go-to guy on the PP. So don’t put him along the half wall, let him take those one-timed shots from the point. If he’s covered, there’s likely room to dish it off to Bourque.

Tanguay’s playmaking ability can be very useful from the point. If nothing is available, he’s also demonstrated an ability to get shots to the net through traffic. Seems like a win-win to me!

*To Brent’s credit, he has tried all of these possibilities intermittently throughout the first quarter. Putting it all together and leaving it alone would be the key!

PP2 set up:

Hagman (LW)                     
Glencross (net presence)                  
Jokinen (off-wing)

Babchuk (off-wing point man)
Giordano (off-wing point man, PP QB)

Hagman has shown flashes on the powerplay, and has the quickness and tenacity to dig pucks out of the corner and create something out of nothing.

Glencross is what he is: a gritty player that has shown flashes of offensive ability.

Say what you will about Jokinen, he has always had a pretty lethal shot. So let him serve as a trigger option, and potentially open up space for the point men as well.

All I’ve heard about Babchuk is that he is a powerplay specialist, with a bomb of a shot. Jay Feaster said that he was brought in because the Flames had “missed that big shot from the point.” Well, let’s see it.

Giordano is the perfect PP quarterback: he’s effective at bringing the puck into the zone, he sees the ice very well, and he can get shots through to the net when appropriate.  

WHAT LIES AHEAD?

Through one quarter, the team is 8-11-1

17 points, 14^th in the Western Conference

The ongoing assertion is that 96 points gets you into the playoffs. So let’s break down the next 3 quarters, in order to see what’s needed from the team through December to April:

Q2, 26 pts in 20 GP: 13-7-0

Q3, 26 pts in 20 GP: 13-7-0

Q4 , 27 pts in 22 GP: 13-8-1

Okay, so I really just divided the point totals by 3, but I think it gives us smaller segments with which to address. Basically, the team will have to maintain a 65% win percentage for the balance of the season. Good teams usually accumulate a 60% win percentage, so this represents a significant challenge for the team. What can they do to drastically improve on an 8-11-1 record?

Play Brent Sutter Hockey. From the same guy that brought the New Jersey Devils 51 wins in 2008-2009, mostly without star goaltender Martin Brodeur. Brent Sutter CAN be part of the solution in Calgary. Play a simple, intelligent game, and capitalize on your opponent’s mistakes. You’ve learned that you can’t survive in skills-competition games against the likes of Detroit, Washington, or Colorado. Good news! Neither can the Phoenix Coyotes. They play their own, simplistic style to break down the opposition – and accumulate 50 wins in the process.

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Segment Review #3: Games 11-15

To best introduce the theme, let’s start off with some numbers from Segment 3:

Games Played: 5

Record: 1-4

Home wins: 0

Goals For: 12           

GPG: 2.4

Goals Against: 18

GAA: 3.6

Players arrested: 1

Players arrested with bloodlines to the Coach and GM: 1

Players traded since this segment: 2

Goals for Iginla: 1

Goals for Jokinen: 1

Goals for Tanguay: 1

Games Played for Henrik Karlsson: 0

Games Played for Steve Staios: Too many

Current Western Conference Seeding: 14^th

So um... UH OH

Despite being 14^th in the Conference, this team is actually playing like a 13^th place team – phew, that’s reassuring. An endorsement you say? Not at all, as the Western Conference is more competitive than ever this November; So... strictly bad news. Of course, it’s more fun to blame the rest of the division anyway: Hello Minnesota and Columbus? You’re not making The Sutters feel better by comparison this year... why all the winning?

No timely scoring + untimely miscues leading to goals against = a poor use of time

The storyline for this segment has returned to what we’re more used to seeing: prolonged losing streaks, and a lack of timely scoring:

4 losses this segment; 3 losses by one goal

There has been no flow to the offensive game for this team, and the “go-to” guys have been gone to, and we’ve come back with nothing. Here’s a look of the best performers in a bad stretch of games:

Rene Bourque: Rene, like many players on this team, has been very inconsistent. However, his ability to contribute offensively shouldn’t be overlooked. Much has been made about a “passing of the torch” from Iginla to Bourque, but I’m not sure we’re at that stage just yet. If anything, the line of Jokinen alongside Hagman and Bourque has reduced some of the top match-ups against Iginla’s line, which is a win-win for the team. Bourque needs to upgrade his level of consistency before he’s handed that figurative torch.

Mark Giordano: I haven’t been particularly fair to Giordano in my player recognition to this point, mostly because we’ve grown so accustomed to seeing this guy play a solid game in all areas. Alongside Kiprusoff, Giordano has become the most consistent player on this team. He keeps his game simple, uses his feet, and finds ways to contribute offensively. He’s effective on the power play, shuts it down on the penalty kill, and ties it all together by playing downright mean. He’s shown no signs of slowing down since signing a long term deal with the Flames, and should be a valuable leader for this team moving forward.

If there’s anything that can distinguish this segment from last, it’s the urgency for results. Many of us, myself especially, spent most of the 2009-2010 justifying a lack of results with “The team lost, but...” The Flames don’t have the luxury of getting by on the ‘little victories’ of a game. This team needs results, and fast, or the season could slip away – fragility and inconsistency intact. The Flames have chosen a win-now approach, and have for several years now. This means that “we’re getting better” and “it’s coming along” will no longer do the trick. Two straight seasons with no playoff appearance, and that approach could take a 180 degree dive. Here’s hoping we’re able to recognize the players on this team next November. 

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Segment Review #2: Games 6-10

What a difference five games can make.

In a review of games 1-5, we assessed the lack of offensive production and the magnificent play of Miikka Kiprusoff – neither of which will be discussed in this segment. The game against the Washington Capitals will not be discussed in depth either, as that would exceed the 5-game protocol for review. Breaking promises on the blogosphere is no way to make cyber friends.

Games  6-10 brought a ton of storylines, with wild swings in momentum and an onset irregular heart beat. The Calgary Flames averaged 4.4 goals for and 3.2 goals against within this five game segment, neither of which we are accustomed to seeing from this team in recent history. The goal scoring has come in waves, while it seems every shot against ends up in the Flames’ net. The issues that plagued this team through the first five games have been temporarily resolved, entirely at the expense of the original strengths of the club. In summary, games 6-10 brought a dismal loss to the Colorado Avalanche, accompanied with the most complete game in a year:  a 4-0 drubbing of the San Jose Sharks. As such, the 2010-2011 Calgary Flames remain a study of consistent inconsistency.

POSITIVES

Suddenly, the team is scoring goals. Lines 1-4 are finding a way to contribute on the score sheet, and we are seeing dirty goals, tic-tac-toe plays and everything in between. The Power play has become slightly less painful to watch, and we are finally seeing some creativity in the offensive zone. Here are some honourable mentions in this category:

Rene Bourque: We are seeing the evolution of a valuable power forward in the making. Rene has been a late bloomer, but is beginning to show signs of a solid two-way performer for this team. It seems we are mid-transition between go-to guys. Gradually, Iggy is removing himself from this role, and Bourque is emerging into a strong candidate for the responsibility moving forward. Is this Rene’s team? Not yet, but I think you’re beginning to see a transition take place. The likes of Regehr and Iginla are fading into the sunset, while Bourque, Giordano and Stajan take on more prominent roles - and long term deals - with the Flames.

Brendan Morrison: While this mention does not represent anything for the future, Morrison is currently leading the team in points. His speed is impressive at age 35, and he has demonstrated an ability to play effectively in any role within the top 3 offensive lines. Solid PK guy, good PP production and alongside Glencross, we are seeing some impressive two-way consistency from Morrison.

Alex Tanguay: Simply put, Tanguay has shown flashes of playmaking brilliance and creativity. At times, his risky decision making can cost the team defensively, but he’s shown some offensive flare that’s been non-existent for the last year. Between set-up plays on the half boards, tape-to-tape feeds to the front of the net and beautiful backhand goals, Alex has a natural skill-set that the Flames have been desperate for in recent history. So who am I to complain about the odd defensive risk?

Olli Jokinen: The Joker has been a more competent second line centre through games 6-10. He hasn’t been good, but he’s been better. Let’s call it a step up from rock bottom, and at this point we’ll take it.

NEGATIVES

Hmm, I guess I’ll just give you a list of negatives: bonehead turnovers in the defensive zone, average goaltending, untimely miscues and above all: an uncanny ability to cough up big leads. In fairness, these are not common characteristics of the team in recent memory. So what’s most concerning? One area of weakness is addressed, and the other facets of team performance completely falter. Let’s celebrate with this segment’s Cyber Wall of Shame:

Robyn Regehr:  This solid shutdown defenseman has looked slow and awkward to this point, while making some poor decisions in the defensive zone. Very uncharacteristic of #28, and something that needs to be reversed quickly. One big hit a game is not enough to make up for those minus ratings on the scoresheet. He’s looked more like Dion Phaneuf than Robyn Regehr as of late, and that’s something I don’t wish on any team. Oh yeah, except one.

Henrik Karlsson: His adopted nickname “The Calgary Tower” has suited him perfectly to this point: He’s humongous, and doesn’t move. He showed some shaky moments in a 6-2 victory over the Blue Jackets, and in my view, let the team down in a 6-5 loss to Colorado. You can’t expect your back-up goaltender to steal you games, but you hope that he’s able to make a timely save when needed. His rebound control was especially poor against the Avs, even on wrist shots from the blueline, and the goals he allowed seemed to kill any momentum that had been generated. From what I saw, he played deep in his crease through most of the game. I’m not a goaltender by any means, but don’t you want your 6-6’ 215 pound goalie to challenge the shooter and take advantage of his size? Typically, I try to stear clear of goaltending criticism, but I think Henrik is capable of more than he’s shown to this point.

If there was a ‘Very Average’ section of this segment, that’s where I would place Jarome Iginla. He seems to be leaving the zone early, and his emotional investment in the game seems uncharacteristically low. He’s still a great hockey player, and this “old and slow” argument seems to get lost in the “tops in conditioning every year” factor. We just haven’t seen much passion from the captain to this point, and to me, that’s more concerning. A disinterested Jarome is sure to be a bad sign. Having said all of this, I’m not on that “Trade Jarome” train that seems to pick up new passengers after every loss.

Let’s hope next segment summary posts a balance of what we’ve seen through the first two. Ten games in, this team is playing fragile. Yet fragility seems to be the only consistent factor amongst all of the inconsistency.

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Segment Review #1

It’s my belief that game-to-game analysis of any sports team can make for poor review. As such, I’m going to do a review of the Calgary Flames in five game segments this season. This way, I won’t use my emotions to overreact to every loss, or plan parade routes after every win. Instead, it will be more useful for us to make reasonable assessments of the team in 5-game snapshots. Now to our first snapshot of the regular season:

POSITIVES

Niklas Hagman – Solid at both ends of the ice, and has demonstrated the most consistent effort of any Flame outside of Kiprusoff. To this point, Hagman hasn’t stopped moving his feet once in the early-going, something the rest of the team should take note of. He’s generated some offensive opportunities, and chimed in with a key tying goal on Saturday night. Full marks for Hagman so far.

Miikka Kiprusoff: What can you say? He doesn’t get rattled, and he doesn’t give up on the play. Kipper had some tough games in terms of Goals Against. However, he seems to rally back to make the big saves when the game is on the line. We could address the losses to Florida and Edmonton, but that would be completely unfair to Miikka, given the team in front of him failed to provide a goal in these two outings. He’s been the hardest working Flame to this point, and one shutout in 5 games is a bonus. Can you imagine if he kept that ratio going? I can’t, so let’s not. Hats off to Kipper once again.  

Matt Stajan – Points aside, Stajan has shown some jump. He’s not a physical player, but seems willing to take the hit to make a play, and he’s been strong on his feet to this point. Is it a coincidence that the top line has a combined 8 points since Olli was shuffled down? I would say not. Matt has been keeping his game simple, and moving his feet. Is he destined to be a #1 centre? Not necessarily, but he’s been the best of the two candidates so far.

NEGATIVES

Olli Jokinen: I think I’ve been pretty patient with Olli over the last couple of years, but it’s time that we see some signs of improvement. In the first five games, The Big Finn has demonstrated his inability to compliment the players around him, hit the net or show any heart whatsoever. Frankly, he has looked disinterested so far, and has done himself no favours in cleaning up his shaky reputation. He tries to make the play that isn’t there, he loves to flip shots on net from the blueline, and he is still learning how to not only make a pass, but receive one. To this point, I’ve ignored criticism of Jokinen’s heart and willingness to win, but he’s making that criticism tougher to ignore as he skates around aimlessly, and blames the media for his poor play.

Jay Bouwmeester: Once again, justified criticism being aimed at a player that is supposed to be a prime defenseman in the league. I was a fan of this signing from day one because of Jay’s speed and understanding of the game. However, to this point, he has been soft on the puck and in the corners, and is still playing stay-at-home, low-risk defence. Guess what Jay? The team is lined with shutdown guys, and it would be nice to see you skate with the puck and make something happen on the score sheet. Not to mention, if you’re going to be a shutdown guy, maybe cut down on the turnovers in your own zone. J-Bo needs to differentiate himself from the Staios/Sarich-types on this team, and hasn’t done so to this point.  

Jarome Iginla: Okay Jarome, we’ve read all about how disappointed you were with last season, how hard you worked in the offseason, and how you will be more productive this year. Where is it? We’ve made a ton of excuses for the face of the franchise over the years, but he’s playing with competent playmakers, and he’s trying to take the game over by himself. Skilled as he is, Iggy does not have the speed to go end-to-end in 2010. The game is much faster, and Jarome continues to stand still in the offensive zone. Once the going gets tough, Jarome tries to deke himself out of the corner going half-speed. To his credit, he’s trying to be the difference maker, but when he is not using his linemates, this superstar becomes much easier to defend.   

OVERVIEW

The first five games, we’ve seen wild swings of play for the Calgary Flames. We’ve seen emotional, hard earned wins against the likes of Edmonton and Nashville, and we’ve seen two embarrassing shutout losses. The reality is, despite the 3-2 record, this team was one overtime bounce away from being shutout in 3 of 5 games. The Flames shouldn’t be as offensively challenged as they are, but we continue to see shots flipped to the opposition goalie from the hash marks.

The biggest reason for scoring misfortune?  A lack of effort. We saw energy and hustle in the preseason. The outwork-your-opposition Calgary Flames of old have been almost non-existent five games into the regular season. This team is trying to out-skill opposing teams, and doing so from the outside. How are the Sedin brothers successful? They drive to the middle of the ice. There has been an unwillingness to drive to the net, and a clear lack of creativity from the Flames. Shots from the boards with no traffic is not solving the issue. Until we see more production in the offensive zone, the criticism and negativity from last season will continue to creep into 2010-2011. 

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Playoff Team Predictions: West and East

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Vancouver Canucks: An excellent balance of experience and youth, with many core players entering their prime. The Swedish Choir surprises me time and time again with its ability to survive in the Western Conference. An excellent season last year, some key defensive additions, and the insertion of some valuable role players will earn the Canucks 50+ wins this season. Above all, this team is no fun to play against.

(2) San Jose Sharks: Improvement in the goaltending position, coupled with the best line in hockey will take this team to the top tier once again. The Sharks will play 82 games worth of additional preseason, and will be judged solely on what takes place from April onwards.

(3) Chicago Blackhawks: I applaud Stan Bowman for his restructuring of this team through the offseason. Forced to cut bait with several key depth players, Bowman simply went out and replaced these positions with even more youthful energy. The core will continue to dominate, and the likes of Pisani, Stahlberg and Kopecky will exceed expectations in depth positions. Most importantly, the addition of Turco will actually prove to be an upgrade.

(4) Detroit Red Wings: Detroit made the playoffs last season despite a wave of injuries last season, illustrating the stability of its puck-possession system. If the team can stay healthy this season, the Wings will continue to roll. Need I explain further?

(5) St Louis Blues: Young gifted forwards, a mix of experience and skilful youth on the blue line, and a playoff hero between the pipes will prepare St Louis for a break-out season.

(6) Los Angeles Kings: Much like St Louis, the youth in LA is ready to take a step forward. Unlike many teams in the league, one year of aging is actually a positive for this team. Both the high-end skill (Kopitar, Doughty, Brown) and the role players (Stoll, Simmonds, Smyth) will build on a solid 09/10 campaign.  

(7) Phoenix Coyotes: The team’s overall depth is weak, but very willing to do what it takes to win. Bryzgalov will continue to improve, and the team’s established system will continue to stifle the opposition. Tough to expect an encore from last season, but the Coyotes will grind out some important wins. Most importantly, Dave Tippett could coach a PeeWee team into the NHL playoffs, so all is well in Phoenix. Oh yeah, except the ongoing ownership issues.

(8) Calgary Flames: Okay, I’m biased. While aging, I feel this team has too many solid veterans to miss the playoffs. Kiprusoff will be reliable, the defensive core will remain consistent, and offensive components (Jokinen, Iginla, Tanguay, Bouwmeester) can only improve on career worsts last season. By no means will the Flames take the West by storm, but the team can only improve on an underachieving 09/10 season.

Some bolder predictions in the East:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Philadelphia Flyers: a fantastic combination of skill and grit. One area of concern is goaltending, but that concern is shared by half of the league, and the Leighton-Boucher tandem will bring out the best of both goalies.  The shut-down defensive core will remain solid, and the Flyers offense will sit top 10 in goals for.

(2) Boston Bruins: The energy of Tyler Seguin, the skills of Nathan Horton on the top line, and the growth of Tuukka Rask will bring this team to the top of the Northeast Division. The Bruins boast solid depth of playmaking centermen, as well as solid secondary scoring potential. In addition, Chara and his cannon of a slapshot are in a contract year. Should be a great season in Boston.

(3) Washington Capitals: While less dominant, the team will remain a top offensive power in the league, and the goals against totals will be unimpressive yet again. Let the 6-5 wins continue in D.C.

(4) New Jersey Devils: Ridiculous contracts intact, New Jersey will build on its consistent performances – only in a slightly different way. With greater emphasis on offense, and a contract year for Parise, the Devils will remain in the top half of the Eastern Conference.

(5) Pittsburgh Penguins: The team got younger by letting Gonchar walk, and bringing in solid defensive pieces in Martin and Michalek. That guy Sidney Crosby is on the team, but Fleury will continue his inconsistency between the pipes, and Mike Comrie will not fill the void of the injured Jordan Staal. Look for this team to hit the highlight reels once again, but perhaps lose its ‘contender’ title – for now, anyway.  

(6) Tampa Bay Lightning: Thanks to a bounce-back year for Lecavalier, and some clever moves by Yzerman, the top-six forward group in TB will be scary. Accompanied by the addition of some key role players and more consistency between the pipes, Tampa is set to have a solid year.

(7) Atlanta Thrashers: Is anyone surprised? I hope not, because thanks to an active offseason, this team has a ton of young offensive potential. With components from the Kovalchuk deal and half the roster from the cup-winning Chicago Blackhawks, Atlanta’s offense will bring a nice combination of skill and grit. I see the Thrashers as being this year’s version of the Colorado Avalanche. In addition to a young offense, improved consistency in net and a solid top 4 on the blue line (Bogosian, Enstrom, Hainsey, Oduya), the Thrashers will bring a level of stability never before seen in Atlanta.

(8) Toronto Maple Leafs: Thank goodness for “truculence.” While this team can be an absolute circus, the Leafs now boast a very solid blueline, and capable goaltending from two sources that do not include Vesa Toskala. This team is young and fast up front, and have added some much-needed offensive potential in the past year (Kessel, Versteeg, McArthur) along with some solid two-way options (Armstrong, Caputi, Bozak). Most importantly, this team will be tough to play against, rather than the push-over Leafs of the recent past. Once Ron Wilson is fired in early December, this team will turn it around and make the playoffs on a late surge. I think the team is poised to turn some heads, and I’m not even a Leafs fan.   

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Flames Training Camp - Day One

Training Camp is finally here! My overall review of the morning: between both the veterans and young guns, there was some sloppy play out there – shots high and wide, poor passing, and the overall chemistry of the group was weak. To be expected on Day 1 of Training Camp I suppose, but noteworthy nonetheless. Some positives and negatives from the first day of training camp:

KARLSSON

I kept a keen eye on this fella throughout the morning. As advertised, this guy is an enormous goaltender – that’s the good news. The bad news? His five-hole becomes more of a target, because when all 6’6 of him stands up, there’s some room between those pads. For what it’s worth (not much) he made 11 stops on 15 shots (73.3 SV %) in a breakaway relay-type drill, while Kipper went 12 for 17 (70.5 SV %). What does that tell us? Absolutely nothing – but at least it’s one metric we can assess. From the hour-long sample I had, he isn’t much of a reactive goaltender. He seems to rely primarily on his positioning and size.

Speaking of reactive, he doesn’t possess the same calm, cool demeanor as Kiprusoff (but who does?) He’s a tad more firey and passionate. The reason I say this? There was some frequent stick-smacking and cursing going on this morning between sequences, and he seemed to get rattled somewhat easily. Personally, I can’t blame him, as I would be an emotional wreck if I were to play the goaltending position, but it’s a change from what we’re used to seeing with Kiprusoff. Having said all of this, he looked solid, and he will learn to be calmer in the net working with McLennan and Kipper I’m sure. Very excited to see this guy play a game or two in the pre-season.  

JOKINEN

Quick note: While I wasn’t blown away by Olli this morning, he does seem to have a “bee in his bonnet.” Very serious in practise this morning, and seems more agile than one calendar year ago. He’s out to prove something and silence the entire North American hockey world. Please do sir.

KRONWALL

Personally, I find it difficult to assess defensemen in these training camps, because they don’t usually stick out unless they’ve done something wrong, but I want to touch on Staffan Kronwall. You feel for this guy, because he is far advanced from the young guns that surround him, but there simply isn’t room for him on the big club. Regardless, I was very impressed with Staffan in some of the skill-related drills this morning, and his ability appears head-and-shoulders above his AHL peers.

JACKMAN

When this guy was originally signed, I thought of him as a fringe enforcer. Today, I was pleasantly surprised with Jackman. He’s very quick considering his size, and had a very impressive shot from what I saw! He was out with the skill players at the end of practice shooting around and actually showed some decent skill. Above all, he should be a pain in the butt to play against.

BACKLUND

Unfortunately, Backlund was set up on a line with Ivanans and Jackman today. I’m trying not to read into that combination too much, because I think it would be more valuable for Backlund to serve as a leader in Abbotsford than a 4^th line energy guy on the big club. However, he settled in to his plugger line well, as he took a stick in the face and left practise. He didn’t return, as he was likely getting some stitches and some mean tattoos to fit in with his enforcer linemates.

KOTALIK

Personally, I feel the resurrection of Kotalik’s career got off to a bad start today. Even in training camp, I was privileged enough to see Kotalik’s indifference and lack of energy out on the ice. He was missing passes, skating half-speed and flipping the puck over the net. The day wasn’t a total waste for Ales though, as he spent most of practice working with his semi-illegal curve to propel the puck into the top-half of the empty net. A couple more weeks of this, and he will be all set in his role as 3^rd string goaltender, while logging 3 minutes a night chopping the puck over the net from the blueline on the powerplay - vintage Kotalik.

CAMERON

While awkward in almost every other aspect of the game, Bryan Cameron has a heck of a shot. Here’s hoping he becomes more of a Brian Gionta-type than a David Moss-type in the coming years.

PELECH

It’s tough for me to say this, because I’m rooting for this guy to make the team: Matt Pelech struggled today, even alongside fellow AHLers. He’s big, but not a great skater, and his play with the puck is just plain awkward. The bad news for him is that we have plenty of Sarich/Staios style defensemen as it is, so there simply isn’t a need for that type of player right now. From my perspective, John Negrin has a leg up on Pelech at this stage.

ARMSTRONG

Call me crazy, but I don’t see enough from John Armstrong that differentiates him from any other energy forward in the Flames organization. At this point, I think you have to place less importance on Junior numbers with this guy, and just watch him play. His skill-set is limited, and yet I don’t see him fitting in as a 4^th line center on the Flames either. Darryl has a soft spot for this guy, but I just don’t think he stands out as a player destined for the big club.

MEYER

Who stood out most to me among the Abbotsford group? Stefan Meyer. That’s right. Stefan Meyer. He continued to strike me as a Glencross-type player, only a more feisty version of Glencross. Let’s call it a cross between Nieminen and Glencross: he keeps his game simple, has very impressive speed and relentless hustle. Even in practise, he was driving hard to the net and jabbing at loose pucks. I had heard this guy was an agitator – and it certainly appears that way – but he also seems to have much more to contribute. On top of all of this, he had by far the most impressive shot in his group. I would say 80% of the opportunities he had to shoot in the drills, he would fly down the wing and fire it short-side over the goaltender’s shoulder. I think this guy could be a fan favourite if given the opportunity – but it’s unlikely he will get that chance in Calgary.

What are you looking to see in training camp? For those of you that went today, what did you notice?

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