61. Rensfeldt, Ludvig - LW/RW - 22G, 21A; 43 points in 58 GP - Sarnia Sting - OHL
62. LaLeggia, Joey - D - 11G , 27A; 38 points in 43 GP - Univ. of Denver - NCAA
63. MacEachern, Mackenzie - LW - 42G, 48A; 90 points in 29 GP - Brother Rice Warriors - USHS
64. Winther, Michael - C - 34G, 24A; 56 points in 71 GP - Prince Albert Raiders - WHL
65. Samuelsson, Henrik - C/RW - 7G, 16A; 23 points in 28 GP - Edmonton Oil Kings - WHL
66. Vainonen, Mikko - D - 7G, 11A; 18 points in 38 GP - HIFK U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga
67. Leipsic, Brendan - C - 28G, 30A; 58 points in 65GP - Portland Winter Hawks - WHL
68. Walker, Nathan - LW - 14G, 6A; 20 points in 14 GP - HC Vitkovice U20 - Czech U20
69. Fournier, Dillon - D - 9G, 29A; 38 points in 52 GP - Rouyn-Noranda Huskies - QMJHL
70. O'Regan, Danny - C - 3G, 2A; 5 points in 7 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
71. Skjei, Brady - D - 3G, 9A; 12 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
72. Lehtonen, Mikko - D - 8G, 19A; 27 points in 39GP - TPS U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga
73. Hart, Brian - RW - 29G, 32A; 61 points in 27 GP - Phillips Exeter Academy - USHS
74. Kulak, Brett - D - 9G, 15A; 24 points in 72 GP - Vancouver Giants - WHL
75. Barabanov, Alexander - LW - 18G, 21A; 39 points in 48 GP - SKA-1946 St. Petersburg - MHL
76. Gavrus, Artur - RW - 15G, 22A; 37 points in 45 GP - Owen Sound Attack - OHL
77. Zaar, Daniel - RW - 14G, 24A; 38 points in 44 GP - Rögle BK J20 - SuperElit
78. Filippov, Alexei - LW - 16G, 8A; 24 points in 45 GP - Belie Medvedi Chelyabinsk - MHL
79. Finn, Matt - D - 10G, 37A; 47 points in 61 GP - Guelph Storm - OHL
80. Beattie, Matt - RW - 39G, 34A; 73 points in 28 GP - Exeter High - USHS
81. Gordon, Coda - LW - 30G, 23A; 53 points in 66 GP - Swift Current Broncos - WHL
82. Calnan, Chris - RW - 28G, 27A; 55 points in 29 GP - Noble & Greenough School - USHS
83. Toninato, Dominic - C - 27G, 34A; 61 points in 25 GP - Duluth East High - USHS
84. McCabe, Jake - D - 3G, 9A; 12 points in 26 GP - Univ. of Wisconsin - NCAA
85. Kulmala, Rasmus - C - 1G, 1A; 2 points in 25 GP - TPS - SM-liiga
86. Sieloff, Patrik - D - 0G, 2A; 2 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
87. Tikkinen, Niklas - D - 8G, 15A; 23 points in 39 GP - Blues U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga
88. Zulinick, Morgan - C - 24G, 42A; 66 points in 57 GP - Salmon Arm Silverbacks - BCHL
89. Larsson, Fredric - D - 1G, 3A; 4 points in 14 GP - Brynäs J20 - SuperElit
90. Matteau, Stefan - LW - 6G, 4A; 10 points in 18 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
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Monday, June 18, 2012
Sunday, June 17, 2012
Trade them all, but not without a plan
(@Takes2toTanguay is a new contributor at Dome Ice Advantage. Have a read and discuss with him on Twitter. Also, he lives in DC, so be sure to ask him what the hell draws him to the Calgary Flames when you get a chance)
It's beginning to look like Jay Bouwmeester will be dealt. Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington could be possible destinations, as you'd expect they are seeking a top pairing defender. Would I trade him? Absolutely not. Trading Jay Bouwmeester would hurt this team and would create an insurmountable hole on the blueline. If the speculation is true, Feaster must know something we don't. If he can somehow get 2 top pairing defensemen in Calgary this summer, then by all means trade Bouwmeester. Unloading Jay at the draft would indicate that Feaster will be throwing some serious, serious dough at Parise and/or Suter - a bad gamble without a back-up plan.
Bouwmeester is always under some sort of scrutiny for his contract and lack of point production. People need to realize that he was utilized for his defensive skills rather than his offensive skills. I really want to see what he can do under a different coach and system. If the Flames manage to trade him, they better have a plan or there will be trouble. You cannot trade from weakness, and defense is serious weakness on this squad. I find it hard to believe that the Flames would get fair value in a trade for Bouwmeester. He adds value to the team, especially in a “win now” mode. If they do trade him, I’d hope Feaster can get a top 6 centre or a cheaper top pairing defender. The team is not in a position to trade their best defender for picks/mid-level prospects. So the question remains: do other teams GMs value Bouwmeester enough to deal a top-6 centre or a cheaper top pairing defender?
Henrik Karlsson is another guy that could and should be dealt. With Irving showing us a glimpse of his potential and Karri Ramo tearing it up in the KHL, Henrik Karlsson has ran his course here and for obvious reasons. He was a decent experiment, but it just never worked out for him. Not a goaltender with zero potential, he just needs an opportunity elsewhere.
Anton Babchuk would help any team’s power play and could help solidify a team who is looking for a 5/6 defenseman that can contribute offensively, but that's about it. If the Flames have any plans to upgrade their power play presence on the blue-line (and they should), I'd expect Babchuk is on his way out of town.
Matt Stajan, I would keep. I never thought I would say that, but the Flames continue to lack depth at his position. It’s clear he never truly found himself in this city. We’ve seen times where he looks like a 50+ point player and times where he looks like he's never played an NHL game before. Like a lot of players, I feel Brent Sutter didn’t utilize him the way he should have. Under a different system/coaching style, he could be effective. You'd expect the Flames are about to get even thinner up the middle this summer (especially if they aren't retaining Jokinen). This, along with a free agency pool looking rather shallow up the middle, trading away a potential #2 centreman with limited trade value might be an issue. If a team gives Feaster an offer for Stajan that makes sense, great, but you'd better be sure you have other options in the system before making that deal.
To me, there is no doubt that the Flames could ice the exact same line up and have different results under a new coaching scheme (St. Louis, LA as examples). However, you get the sense Feaster wants new faces on this team. Three years with the same line up and all we've seen is "just missed” excuses. It's not good enough. Jay Feaster and upper management would be the first to tell you it’s not good enough.
For one, I'm against a full rebuild. A gradual re-tool is simply more realistic. Trading away core guys might be the biggest mistake a team could make. It could pay off long-term, but Jarome Iginla and Miikka Kiprusoff hold more value to this squad than a blue chip prospect and a 1st rounder - especially for a team that’s in "win now” mode. It’s certainly possible that the Flames could trade Iginla and remain competitive, but trading away the face of the franchise would not make sense from a business perspective, let alone a hockey perspective. If Jarome confronts management, that’s a different story. Until that point, he won't be going anywhere.
Follow posts on Twitter @WiswellMRU
It's beginning to look like Jay Bouwmeester will be dealt. Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington could be possible destinations, as you'd expect they are seeking a top pairing defender. Would I trade him? Absolutely not. Trading Jay Bouwmeester would hurt this team and would create an insurmountable hole on the blueline. If the speculation is true, Feaster must know something we don't. If he can somehow get 2 top pairing defensemen in Calgary this summer, then by all means trade Bouwmeester. Unloading Jay at the draft would indicate that Feaster will be throwing some serious, serious dough at Parise and/or Suter - a bad gamble without a back-up plan.
Bouwmeester is always under some sort of scrutiny for his contract and lack of point production. People need to realize that he was utilized for his defensive skills rather than his offensive skills. I really want to see what he can do under a different coach and system. If the Flames manage to trade him, they better have a plan or there will be trouble. You cannot trade from weakness, and defense is serious weakness on this squad. I find it hard to believe that the Flames would get fair value in a trade for Bouwmeester. He adds value to the team, especially in a “win now” mode. If they do trade him, I’d hope Feaster can get a top 6 centre or a cheaper top pairing defender. The team is not in a position to trade their best defender for picks/mid-level prospects. So the question remains: do other teams GMs value Bouwmeester enough to deal a top-6 centre or a cheaper top pairing defender?
Henrik Karlsson is another guy that could and should be dealt. With Irving showing us a glimpse of his potential and Karri Ramo tearing it up in the KHL, Henrik Karlsson has ran his course here and for obvious reasons. He was a decent experiment, but it just never worked out for him. Not a goaltender with zero potential, he just needs an opportunity elsewhere.
Anton Babchuk would help any team’s power play and could help solidify a team who is looking for a 5/6 defenseman that can contribute offensively, but that's about it. If the Flames have any plans to upgrade their power play presence on the blue-line (and they should), I'd expect Babchuk is on his way out of town.
Matt Stajan, I would keep. I never thought I would say that, but the Flames continue to lack depth at his position. It’s clear he never truly found himself in this city. We’ve seen times where he looks like a 50+ point player and times where he looks like he's never played an NHL game before. Like a lot of players, I feel Brent Sutter didn’t utilize him the way he should have. Under a different system/coaching style, he could be effective. You'd expect the Flames are about to get even thinner up the middle this summer (especially if they aren't retaining Jokinen). This, along with a free agency pool looking rather shallow up the middle, trading away a potential #2 centreman with limited trade value might be an issue. If a team gives Feaster an offer for Stajan that makes sense, great, but you'd better be sure you have other options in the system before making that deal.
To me, there is no doubt that the Flames could ice the exact same line up and have different results under a new coaching scheme (St. Louis, LA as examples). However, you get the sense Feaster wants new faces on this team. Three years with the same line up and all we've seen is "just missed” excuses. It's not good enough. Jay Feaster and upper management would be the first to tell you it’s not good enough.
For one, I'm against a full rebuild. A gradual re-tool is simply more realistic. Trading away core guys might be the biggest mistake a team could make. It could pay off long-term, but Jarome Iginla and Miikka Kiprusoff hold more value to this squad than a blue chip prospect and a 1st rounder - especially for a team that’s in "win now” mode. It’s certainly possible that the Flames could trade Iginla and remain competitive, but trading away the face of the franchise would not make sense from a business perspective, let alone a hockey perspective. If Jarome confronts management, that’s a different story. Until that point, he won't be going anywhere.
Follow posts on Twitter @WiswellMRU
Saturday, June 16, 2012
Second Round Rankings - by Michael Fabrig
31. Di Giuseppe, Phil - C/LW - 11G , 15A; 26 points in 40 GP - Univ. of Michigan - NCAA
32. Lundberg, Emil - LW - 6G, 12A; 18 points in 51 GP - Södertälje - Allsvenskan
33. Dansk, Oskar - G - 28 GP, 2.82, .910 SV% - Brynäs J20 - SuperElit
34. Vatrano, Frankie - LW/C - 7G, 11A; 18 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
35. Gaunce, Brendan - C - 28G, 40A; 68 points in 68 GP - Belleville Bulls - OHL
36. Slepyshev, Anton - LW - 4G, 3A; 7 points in 39 GP - Metallurg Novokuznetsk - KHL
37. Severson, Damon - D - 7G, 30A; 37 points in 56 GP - Kelowna Rockets - WHL
38. Baillargeon, Robbie - C - 14G, 34A; 48 points in 54 GP - Indiana Ice - USHL
39. Thrower, Dalton - D - 18G, 36A; 54 points in 66 GP - Saskatoon Blades - WHL
40. Kosmachuk, Scott - RW - 30G, 29A; 59 points in 67GP - Guelph Storm - OHL
41. Prokhorkin, Nikolai - LW - 1G, 1A; 2 points in 15 GP - CSKA Moskva - KHL
42. Djuse, Emil - D - 8G, 31A; 39 points in 35 GP - Östersunds IK - SWE-1
43. Shore, Devin - C - 29G, 29A; 58 points in 41 GP - Whitby Fury - OJHL
44. Spelling, Thomas - RW - 21G, 16A; 37 points in 33 GP - Herning - Denmark
45. Collberg, Sebastian - RW - 9G, 8A; 17 points in 21 GP - Frölunda J20 - SuperElit
46. Vesey, Jimmy - C - 48G, 43A; 91 points in 45 GP - South Shore Kings - EJHL
47. Cangelosi, Austin - C - 29G, 30A; 59 points in 53 GP - Youngstown Phantoms - USHL
48. Vikstrand, Mikael - D - 2G, 1A; 3 points in 47 GP - Mora - Allsvenskan
49. Gillies, Jon - G - 53 GP, 2.77, .915 SV% - Indiana Ice - USHL
50. Andersson, Calle - D - 12G, 24A; 36 points in 49 GP - Färjestad J20 - SuperElit
51. Ebert, Nick - D - 6G, 33A; 39 points in 66 GP - Windsor Spitfires - OHL
52. Bertschy, Christoph - C - 8G, 8A; 16 points in 32 GP - Bern - NLA
53. Khaira, Jujhar - LW - 29G, 50A; 79 points in 54 GP - Prince George Spruce Kings - BCHL
54. Zlobin, Anton - RW - 40G, 36A; 76 points in 66 GP - Shawinigan Cataractes - QMJHL
55. Zharkov, Daniil - LW - 23G, 13A; 36 points in 50 GP - Belleville Bulls - OHL
56. Törnkvist, Tobias - RW - 16G, 20A; 36 points in 48 GP - Rögle BK J20 - SuperElit
57. Sutter, Lukas - C - 28G, 31A; 59 points in 70 GP - Saskatoon Blades - WHL
58. Hinostroza, Vince - C - 20G, 24A; 44 points in 55 GP - Waterloo Black Hawks - USHL
59. Laughton, Scott - C - 21G, 32A; 53 points in 64 GP - Oshawa Generals - OHL
60. Bystrom, Ludvig - D - 0G, 1A; 1 point in 20 GP - MODO - Eliteserin
Follow Michael Fabrig on Twitter @gotitotti, follow posts @WiswellMRU
32. Lundberg, Emil - LW - 6G, 12A; 18 points in 51 GP - Södertälje - Allsvenskan
33. Dansk, Oskar - G - 28 GP, 2.82, .910 SV% - Brynäs J20 - SuperElit
34. Vatrano, Frankie - LW/C - 7G, 11A; 18 points in 24 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
35. Gaunce, Brendan - C - 28G, 40A; 68 points in 68 GP - Belleville Bulls - OHL
36. Slepyshev, Anton - LW - 4G, 3A; 7 points in 39 GP - Metallurg Novokuznetsk - KHL
37. Severson, Damon - D - 7G, 30A; 37 points in 56 GP - Kelowna Rockets - WHL
38. Baillargeon, Robbie - C - 14G, 34A; 48 points in 54 GP - Indiana Ice - USHL
39. Thrower, Dalton - D - 18G, 36A; 54 points in 66 GP - Saskatoon Blades - WHL
40. Kosmachuk, Scott - RW - 30G, 29A; 59 points in 67GP - Guelph Storm - OHL
41. Prokhorkin, Nikolai - LW - 1G, 1A; 2 points in 15 GP - CSKA Moskva - KHL
42. Djuse, Emil - D - 8G, 31A; 39 points in 35 GP - Östersunds IK - SWE-1
43. Shore, Devin - C - 29G, 29A; 58 points in 41 GP - Whitby Fury - OJHL
44. Spelling, Thomas - RW - 21G, 16A; 37 points in 33 GP - Herning - Denmark
45. Collberg, Sebastian - RW - 9G, 8A; 17 points in 21 GP - Frölunda J20 - SuperElit
46. Vesey, Jimmy - C - 48G, 43A; 91 points in 45 GP - South Shore Kings - EJHL
47. Cangelosi, Austin - C - 29G, 30A; 59 points in 53 GP - Youngstown Phantoms - USHL
48. Vikstrand, Mikael - D - 2G, 1A; 3 points in 47 GP - Mora - Allsvenskan
49. Gillies, Jon - G - 53 GP, 2.77, .915 SV% - Indiana Ice - USHL
50. Andersson, Calle - D - 12G, 24A; 36 points in 49 GP - Färjestad J20 - SuperElit
51. Ebert, Nick - D - 6G, 33A; 39 points in 66 GP - Windsor Spitfires - OHL
52. Bertschy, Christoph - C - 8G, 8A; 16 points in 32 GP - Bern - NLA
53. Khaira, Jujhar - LW - 29G, 50A; 79 points in 54 GP - Prince George Spruce Kings - BCHL
54. Zlobin, Anton - RW - 40G, 36A; 76 points in 66 GP - Shawinigan Cataractes - QMJHL
55. Zharkov, Daniil - LW - 23G, 13A; 36 points in 50 GP - Belleville Bulls - OHL
56. Törnkvist, Tobias - RW - 16G, 20A; 36 points in 48 GP - Rögle BK J20 - SuperElit
57. Sutter, Lukas - C - 28G, 31A; 59 points in 70 GP - Saskatoon Blades - WHL
58. Hinostroza, Vince - C - 20G, 24A; 44 points in 55 GP - Waterloo Black Hawks - USHL
59. Laughton, Scott - C - 21G, 32A; 53 points in 64 GP - Oshawa Generals - OHL
60. Bystrom, Ludvig - D - 0G, 1A; 1 point in 20 GP - MODO - Eliteserin
Follow Michael Fabrig on Twitter @gotitotti, follow posts @WiswellMRU
Thursday, June 14, 2012
First Round Rankings - by Michael Fabrig
1. Grigorenko, Mikhail - C/RW - 40G, 45A; 85 points in 59 GP - Quebec Remparts - QMJHL
2. Yakupov, Nail - RW - 31G, 38A; 69 points in 42 GP - Sarnia Sting - OHL
3. Galchenyuk, Alex - C - 31G, 52A; 83 points in 68 GP ('10-11) - Sarnia Sting - OHL
4. Forsberg, Filip - LW - 8G, 9A; 17 points in 43 GP - Leksand - Allsvenskan
5. Lindholm, Hampus - D - 1G, 3A; 4 points in 20 GP - Rogle - Elitserien
6. Teräväinen, Teuvo - RW - 11G, 7A; 18 points in 40 GP - Jokerit - SM-liiga
7. Rielly, Morgan - D - 3G, 15A; 18 points in 18 GP - Moose Jaw Warriors - WHL
8. Hertl, Tomas - C - 12G, 13A; 25 points in 38 GP - HC Slavia Praha - Czech
9. Girgensons, Zemgus - C/RW - 24G, 31A; 55 points in 49 GP - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL
10. Matheson, Michael - D - 11G, 16A; 27 points in 53 GP - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL
11. Åberg, Pontus - LW/RW - 8G, 7A; 15 points in 47 GP - Djurgården - Elitserien
12. Määttä, Olli - D - 5G, 27A; 32 points in 58 GP - London Knights - OHL
13. Pouliot, Derrick - D - 11G, 48A; 59 points in 72 GP - Portland Winter Hawks - WHL
14. Murray, Ryan - D - 9G, 22A; 31 points in 46 GP - Everett Silvertips - WHL
15. Dumba, Matthew - D - 20G, 37A; 57 Points in 69 GP - Red Deer Rebels - WHL
16. Trouba, Jacob - D - 4G, 14A; 18 points in 22 GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
17. Reinhart, Griffin - D - 12G, 24A; 36 points in 58 GP - Edmonton Oil Kings - WHL
18. Kerdiles, Nicolas - C - 4G, 9A; 13 points in 18GP - USNTDP Juniors - USHL
19. Bozon, Timothé - LW - 36G, 35A; 71 points in 71 GP - Kamloops Blazers - WHL
20. Vasilevski, Andrei - G - 27 GP, 2.23, .931 SV% - Tolpar Ufa - MHL
21. Koekkoek, Slater - D - 5G, 13A; 18 points in 26 GP - Peterborough Petes - OHL
22. Ceci, Cody - D - 17G, 43A; 60 points in 63 GP - Ottawa 67's - OHL
23. Frk, Martin - RW - 16G, 13A; 29 points in 34GP - Halifax Mooseheads - QMJHL
24. Pokka, Ville - D - 0G, 3A; 3 points in 35 GP - Kärpät - SM-liiga
25. Roy, Kevin - LW - 50G, 54A; 104 points in 59 GP - Lincoln Stars - USHL
26. Lindell, Esa - D - 21G, 30A; 51 points in 48 GP - Jokerit U20 - Jr. A SM-liiga
27. Jankowski, Mark - C - 53G , 40A; 93 points in 57 GP - Stanstead College - Quebec Prep
28. Subban, Malcolm - G - 39 GP, 2.50, .923 SV% - Belleville Bulls - OHL
29. Faksa, Radek - C - 29G, 38A; 67 points in 62 GP - Kitchener Rangers - OHL
30. Schmaltz, Jordan - D - 7G, 28A; 35 points in 46 GP - Green Bay Gamblers - USHL
Thanks again to Michael for his insight. We will post his entire rankings (Rounds 2-7) on the site periodically as we approach the Draft. Follow Michael at @gotitotti for more discussion.
Follow posts on twitter @WiswellMRU
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Flames First Round Must-Haves by Michael Fabrig
Michael Fabrig (@gotitotti) was nice enough to contribute a list of his top first round prospects in the Flames' wheelhouse. Michael has a relationship with NHL scouts and does a ton of analysis on prospects. His insight on future NHLers is impressive. Have a read!
Choice 1: Tomas Hertl - C - 6'2" - HC Slavia Praha - Czech
Comparable: Derek Stepan
Reason: The Flames are lacking a high-end Centre; every team in the league wishes for a player like Hertl -- blessed size, skill, and most importantly -- acumen. Hertl projects to be a top-6 forward with abilities to be versatile on the wing. His Czech team did better than expected at the WJHC -- Hertl was the only draft-eligible to named the top-3 on his team. Hertl is a very smart player with high-end skills. I think Hertl's progression will continue, if it does, by next-year around, he'll be deemed a steal at 14.
Choice 2: Zemgus Girgensons - C - 6'2" - C - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL
Comparable: Ryan Kesler
Reason: As a big factor why Brian Burke was convinced in Ryan Kesler's leadership, and ability to score and have a rugged presence, Girgensons seems so convincing that he plans to use to the same game-plan to get to the big leagues. Girgensons has a play-making side that is rather 'underrated'. The scouts that I've talked to are convinced that after a year at Vermont, he'll be more than ready to play in the NHL. After viewing his playoff performance, I was convinced that he could have scored more goals if it wasn't for the broken jaw. Girgensons makes a whole lot of sense as a Calgary Flame, he's big and skilled, and plays C! The question is -- will he be good enough to be a top-6? That question is why I had Hertl over Girgensons. I wouldn't be surprised if Girgensons, someday, becomes a captain somewhere in the NHL. Roberts Lipsbergs and Nikita Jevpalovs are 2 other Latvians that are starting to put Latvian hockey on the board. Great to see Latvian hockey getting bigger and better.
Choice 3: Andrei Vasilevski - G - 6'3" - Tolpar UFA - MHL.
Comparable: Tuukka Rask
Reason: Simply put, the Flames are, inevitably, going to have to start thinking and finding a way to have a future goalie after Kipper. Leland Irving and Karri Ramo look like good corner-stones to bank-on, but, at this point, they're not proven that they are the guys of the future. Vasilevski is blessed technically; his in-tangibles make it very convincing to see that he will be in the NHL one day. The Russian-factor is something that might turn-away some teams from drafting him; I haven't seen a Russian Goaltender look this promising in a long time.
Choice 4: Michael Matheson - D - 6'2" - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL
Comparable - John Carlson
Reason: Michael Matheson has the size and shot to eventually be a great top-4 d-man in the NHL. Consistency has been the biggest knack that scouts have on Matheson. His shot, ability to jump in the play, and silky-smooth skating ability are easy enough to take a stab at the former Lac Saint-Louis Lions scoring star. Matheson was dominant in the USHL playoffs -- he had 4 goals in 5 games. His pedigree showcases a player that rises to the occasion come playoff-time. Playing with Boston College next year will help his game mature; his defensive work with get a great challenge, the eventuality, it will let him mature there. His offensive abilities are very profound; I think Matheson will take these intangibles with him when eventually comes to the NHL -- at that point, teams will be salivating. You picture Matheson, Giordano, T.J. Brodie -- a great core that will make it hard for teams to deal with.
Choice 5: Pontus Aberg - RW - 5'11" - Djurgarden - Elitserien
Comparable: Mathias Tedenby
Reason: a scoring winger is something that adds huge value to a team. Tedenby is faster and has more skill -- Aberg has a better ability to shoot the puck like a sniper. With a majority of Aberg's points coming in the first-half of the season, its scary to think what his point totals would have been if it wasn't for the shoulder injury. We've seen what that has done to guys like Hall and Kesler in the big leagues, and what it had done to their statistics. Aberg is a bit of a risky pick -- but with the organization very shallow with Right Winger's, taking a guy like Aberg could fast-track the player to not only come in the league, but, make a positive contribution.
Choice 6: Derrick Pouliot - D - 5'11" - Portland Winter Hawks - WHL
Comparable: Erik Karlsson
Reason: No doubt, Derrick Pouliot is a game-breaker. His offensive skills are at the same level as Morgan Rielly. Watching the Top Prospects game, for me, the guy that really impressed me was Pouliot. The defensive side to his game is very questionable at times. At the end of the day, his position is a defense -- a team is drafting with the expectation for him to play that position. I think his offense, skating ability, and the ability to join the rush at the right times make him a catch. I think Pouliot has more transferable skills than Murray and Dumba -- hence, why I have him higher. He has some natural abilities that will separate himself from other competitors for a roster spot. I personally think that Dumba's Phanuef-life approach to the game will quickly wash away -- he's 5'11". Ryan Murray, like Jay Boumeester, has tremendous skating and longevity to probably be an Iron-Man in the NHL, but I don't see him having a wow-factor. It's like guys like Victor Hedman, Braydon Coburn, and Luke Schenn -- guys that when looking back, you might have not taken them so high if you knew how they'd translate in the NHL.
Thanks again to Michael for his contributions. He will have his full rankings (rounds 1-7!) up on the site soon. You can follow him on twitter @gotitotti.
Follow posts on twitter @WiswellMRU
Choice 1: Tomas Hertl - C - 6'2" - HC Slavia Praha - Czech
Comparable: Derek Stepan
Reason: The Flames are lacking a high-end Centre; every team in the league wishes for a player like Hertl -- blessed size, skill, and most importantly -- acumen. Hertl projects to be a top-6 forward with abilities to be versatile on the wing. His Czech team did better than expected at the WJHC -- Hertl was the only draft-eligible to named the top-3 on his team. Hertl is a very smart player with high-end skills. I think Hertl's progression will continue, if it does, by next-year around, he'll be deemed a steal at 14.
Choice 2: Zemgus Girgensons - C - 6'2" - C - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL
Comparable: Ryan Kesler
Reason: As a big factor why Brian Burke was convinced in Ryan Kesler's leadership, and ability to score and have a rugged presence, Girgensons seems so convincing that he plans to use to the same game-plan to get to the big leagues. Girgensons has a play-making side that is rather 'underrated'. The scouts that I've talked to are convinced that after a year at Vermont, he'll be more than ready to play in the NHL. After viewing his playoff performance, I was convinced that he could have scored more goals if it wasn't for the broken jaw. Girgensons makes a whole lot of sense as a Calgary Flame, he's big and skilled, and plays C! The question is -- will he be good enough to be a top-6? That question is why I had Hertl over Girgensons. I wouldn't be surprised if Girgensons, someday, becomes a captain somewhere in the NHL. Roberts Lipsbergs and Nikita Jevpalovs are 2 other Latvians that are starting to put Latvian hockey on the board. Great to see Latvian hockey getting bigger and better.
Choice 3: Andrei Vasilevski - G - 6'3" - Tolpar UFA - MHL.
Comparable: Tuukka Rask
Reason: Simply put, the Flames are, inevitably, going to have to start thinking and finding a way to have a future goalie after Kipper. Leland Irving and Karri Ramo look like good corner-stones to bank-on, but, at this point, they're not proven that they are the guys of the future. Vasilevski is blessed technically; his in-tangibles make it very convincing to see that he will be in the NHL one day. The Russian-factor is something that might turn-away some teams from drafting him; I haven't seen a Russian Goaltender look this promising in a long time.
Choice 4: Michael Matheson - D - 6'2" - Dubuque Fighting Saints - USHL
Comparable - John Carlson
Reason: Michael Matheson has the size and shot to eventually be a great top-4 d-man in the NHL. Consistency has been the biggest knack that scouts have on Matheson. His shot, ability to jump in the play, and silky-smooth skating ability are easy enough to take a stab at the former Lac Saint-Louis Lions scoring star. Matheson was dominant in the USHL playoffs -- he had 4 goals in 5 games. His pedigree showcases a player that rises to the occasion come playoff-time. Playing with Boston College next year will help his game mature; his defensive work with get a great challenge, the eventuality, it will let him mature there. His offensive abilities are very profound; I think Matheson will take these intangibles with him when eventually comes to the NHL -- at that point, teams will be salivating. You picture Matheson, Giordano, T.J. Brodie -- a great core that will make it hard for teams to deal with.
Choice 5: Pontus Aberg - RW - 5'11" - Djurgarden - Elitserien
Comparable: Mathias Tedenby
Reason: a scoring winger is something that adds huge value to a team. Tedenby is faster and has more skill -- Aberg has a better ability to shoot the puck like a sniper. With a majority of Aberg's points coming in the first-half of the season, its scary to think what his point totals would have been if it wasn't for the shoulder injury. We've seen what that has done to guys like Hall and Kesler in the big leagues, and what it had done to their statistics. Aberg is a bit of a risky pick -- but with the organization very shallow with Right Winger's, taking a guy like Aberg could fast-track the player to not only come in the league, but, make a positive contribution.
Choice 6: Derrick Pouliot - D - 5'11" - Portland Winter Hawks - WHL
Comparable: Erik Karlsson
Reason: No doubt, Derrick Pouliot is a game-breaker. His offensive skills are at the same level as Morgan Rielly. Watching the Top Prospects game, for me, the guy that really impressed me was Pouliot. The defensive side to his game is very questionable at times. At the end of the day, his position is a defense -- a team is drafting with the expectation for him to play that position. I think his offense, skating ability, and the ability to join the rush at the right times make him a catch. I think Pouliot has more transferable skills than Murray and Dumba -- hence, why I have him higher. He has some natural abilities that will separate himself from other competitors for a roster spot. I personally think that Dumba's Phanuef-life approach to the game will quickly wash away -- he's 5'11". Ryan Murray, like Jay Boumeester, has tremendous skating and longevity to probably be an Iron-Man in the NHL, but I don't see him having a wow-factor. It's like guys like Victor Hedman, Braydon Coburn, and Luke Schenn -- guys that when looking back, you might have not taken them so high if you knew how they'd translate in the NHL.
Thanks again to Michael for his contributions. He will have his full rankings (rounds 1-7!) up on the site soon. You can follow him on twitter @gotitotti.
Follow posts on twitter @WiswellMRU
Monday, January 16, 2012
Direction, You Say?
What's with questioning the "direction" of a team when it acquires a skilled, top-6 player? If any organization is turning down a shot at a proven scorer at 29 years old in order to stay true to the "direction" of the franchise, they need to get a new direction. In any industry, competitiveness is essential, regardless of the 5-year plan.
Mike Cammalleri has a high skill level. The Flames do not. He's performed well in the playoffs within the last two seasons. The Flames haven't even qualified. He's a proven top-6 guy and adds another weapon to the PP. And most of all, he was underachieving this season, and therefore available in the market. Are the Flames in a position to pass up on this guy because they're in a soft rebuild (or "re-tool")? No chance.
In terms of direction, since when is a 29-year old winger over-the-hill? This is the big leagues, where most players don't make a significant impact until age 24-25. The age component of the deal is entirely reasonable, especially when shedding a 30-year old in the process, with a contract that was arguably worse (double the term). To me, it's a win: a wash in terms of age, for more skill and fewer years. And no, I don't expect him to put up 80 points in a Flames sweater again. I could certainly live with 65-70 points in the next two seasons, however.
On top of all the asset banter, professional hockey is about entertainment, and Cammalleri is the type of player fans come to see.
Now, for the other assets that were sent packing...
Patrick Holland is a heck of an overachieving 7th-round prospect, but how much has he elevated his NHL potential in this time frame? Could he be a top-6 forward in the NHL one day? Maybe. More likely, however, he's a 3rd or 4th line utility player. Guys like that are readily available, and the Flames have plenty of them in the system as is.
Losing a second round pick (in 2013) is a concern - no question... But you'd expect there will be a number of players made available at the deadline (Stempniak, Moss, Morrison, Jackman...?) for contending teams that *could* bring about a small handful of 3rd-5th round picks. Quantity over quality is a decent consolation prize when it comes to draft picks.
THAT THROW-IN GOALIE WITH A FUNNY NAME
Originally, I was skeptical about Karri Ramo as a "throw in" for the deal. I figured it was Feaster re-acquiring a former TB prospect as his reclamation project. Ramo is certainly a project, but as it turns out, he may not be far off in terms of everyday contributions at the NHL level. Known as a top goalie in the KHL, with a back-to-back goals against avg of 1.97, he's worth the gamble. And at only 25 years old, this "throw-in" goaltender may bring much more:
http://m.torontosun.com/2012/01/13/goalie-acquired-in-cammalleri-deal-could-spell-end-of-kipper-with-flames
Rebuild, Re-tool or contend, there will always be a need to add skilled, proven players to the line-up. Just ask the Oilers or Islanders. Cap space notwithstanding, I could see Cammalleri fitting in on 25 of the 30 teams in the league. You can scout and draft well, calling it "organizational direction" or "progress." Yet, if you're not constantly improving your team's competitiveness, free agents will sign elsewhere, and your former first-round picks will diminish into obscurity.
Welcome back, Cammo.
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
Mike Cammalleri has a high skill level. The Flames do not. He's performed well in the playoffs within the last two seasons. The Flames haven't even qualified. He's a proven top-6 guy and adds another weapon to the PP. And most of all, he was underachieving this season, and therefore available in the market. Are the Flames in a position to pass up on this guy because they're in a soft rebuild (or "re-tool")? No chance.
In terms of direction, since when is a 29-year old winger over-the-hill? This is the big leagues, where most players don't make a significant impact until age 24-25. The age component of the deal is entirely reasonable, especially when shedding a 30-year old in the process, with a contract that was arguably worse (double the term). To me, it's a win: a wash in terms of age, for more skill and fewer years. And no, I don't expect him to put up 80 points in a Flames sweater again. I could certainly live with 65-70 points in the next two seasons, however.
On top of all the asset banter, professional hockey is about entertainment, and Cammalleri is the type of player fans come to see.
Now, for the other assets that were sent packing...
Patrick Holland is a heck of an overachieving 7th-round prospect, but how much has he elevated his NHL potential in this time frame? Could he be a top-6 forward in the NHL one day? Maybe. More likely, however, he's a 3rd or 4th line utility player. Guys like that are readily available, and the Flames have plenty of them in the system as is.
Losing a second round pick (in 2013) is a concern - no question... But you'd expect there will be a number of players made available at the deadline (Stempniak, Moss, Morrison, Jackman...?) for contending teams that *could* bring about a small handful of 3rd-5th round picks. Quantity over quality is a decent consolation prize when it comes to draft picks.
THAT THROW-IN GOALIE WITH A FUNNY NAME
Originally, I was skeptical about Karri Ramo as a "throw in" for the deal. I figured it was Feaster re-acquiring a former TB prospect as his reclamation project. Ramo is certainly a project, but as it turns out, he may not be far off in terms of everyday contributions at the NHL level. Known as a top goalie in the KHL, with a back-to-back goals against avg of 1.97, he's worth the gamble. And at only 25 years old, this "throw-in" goaltender may bring much more:
http://m.torontosun.com/2012/01/13/goalie-acquired-in-cammalleri-deal-could-spell-end-of-kipper-with-flames
Rebuild, Re-tool or contend, there will always be a need to add skilled, proven players to the line-up. Just ask the Oilers or Islanders. Cap space notwithstanding, I could see Cammalleri fitting in on 25 of the 30 teams in the league. You can scout and draft well, calling it "organizational direction" or "progress." Yet, if you're not constantly improving your team's competitiveness, free agents will sign elsewhere, and your former first-round picks will diminish into obscurity.
Welcome back, Cammo.
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
Monday, November 28, 2011
Calgary Flames Quarterly Report
This has been a painfully predictable start in the eyes of many Flames followers, yet one theme prevails atop the struggles: the Flames are bad, but not THIS bad. We could point to a lack of skill, but that argument no longer carries weight. The likes of Nashville, Phoenix and Minnesota seem to be getting by with solid goaltending and a lack of high-end skill. So why are the Flames in 13th place? Here are a number of explanations for it.
1. A lack of sustained back-pressure from the forwards has allowed opposing players significant time and space with the puck. Without any back-pressure, the opposition isn't forced to make quick (and often poor) decisions with the puck. As a result, the D men are forced to attack, rather than playing a more conservative contain game, which leads to poor pinches and odd man rushes against. Basically, a lack of defensive pressure and support from the forwards makes the D men - and the scoreboard - look atrocious.
1. A lack of sustained back-pressure from the forwards has allowed opposing players significant time and space with the puck. Without any back-pressure, the opposition isn't forced to make quick (and often poor) decisions with the puck. As a result, the D men are forced to attack, rather than playing a more conservative contain game, which leads to poor pinches and odd man rushes against. Basically, a lack of defensive pressure and support from the forwards makes the D men - and the scoreboard - look atrocious.
2. While it may work in short spurts, heavy dependence on goaltending is unsustainable. Both Kiprusoff and Karlsson have been stellar, but these contributions merely mask shortcomings in team performance. A number of wins (vs. Colorado especially) were the result of timely goaltending, whereas a segment of tight losses could have been blowouts (vs. Buffalo, Detroit, St Louis) if not for steady netminding from the tandem. So, could it be worse for this team? Actually, it could. Not to say you shouldn't expect your goaltender to be good, but when you allow the other team to come at you in waves, you won’t win with any regularity.
3. The Flames' horrendous power play has nothing to do with a lack of skill or an aging team. In fact, it's more the result of a brutal break-out. There is a lack of urgency and flow leaving the zone. The feet are not moving, and the D simply throw the puck into the corner, where the forwards fail to outnumber the opposition in puck battles. Why isn't the *extra* man utilized here? Once they gain the zone (if ever), puck-movement is forced and predictable, as the likes of Iginla, Tanguay and Bourque stand around, waiting for the play to come to them. When the feet aren't moving, the opposition is able to stand still and block shooting lanes with ease. Once the PP quarterbacks (Giordano, Bouwmeester) lose patience with the lack of flow, they casually throw the puck right into some shin pads, and the squad is forced to reset.
4. Poor offensive AND defensive efforts from the top line is hand-cuffing this team. If the Flames continue to rely on Joker & Glencross to produce offense against the likes of Datsyuk and Toews every game, 13th place will be best-case for the team. Based on matchups, the top-line should be potting one goal per game. At this rate, the #2 “shutdown” line can compliment these heavy hitters with some production at key times. Instead, the players facing the most difficult match-ups (#2) are also most effective in the offensive zone. To me, that comes down to hustle. We can give it a rest with the “Iggy deserves better” and “send him to a contender” until he starts performing again.
3. The Flames' horrendous power play has nothing to do with a lack of skill or an aging team. In fact, it's more the result of a brutal break-out. There is a lack of urgency and flow leaving the zone. The feet are not moving, and the D simply throw the puck into the corner, where the forwards fail to outnumber the opposition in puck battles. Why isn't the *extra* man utilized here? Once they gain the zone (if ever), puck-movement is forced and predictable, as the likes of Iginla, Tanguay and Bourque stand around, waiting for the play to come to them. When the feet aren't moving, the opposition is able to stand still and block shooting lanes with ease. Once the PP quarterbacks (Giordano, Bouwmeester) lose patience with the lack of flow, they casually throw the puck right into some shin pads, and the squad is forced to reset.
4. Poor offensive AND defensive efforts from the top line is hand-cuffing this team. If the Flames continue to rely on Joker & Glencross to produce offense against the likes of Datsyuk and Toews every game, 13th place will be best-case for the team. Based on matchups, the top-line should be potting one goal per game. At this rate, the #2 “shutdown” line can compliment these heavy hitters with some production at key times. Instead, the players facing the most difficult match-ups (#2) are also most effective in the offensive zone. To me, that comes down to hustle. We can give it a rest with the “Iggy deserves better” and “send him to a contender” until he starts performing again.
Over the last two seasons, it has become very clear that Sutter and Iginla have some philosophical differences. If the captain doesn’t play within the team structure at age 34, who will be held accountable to it? If the message applies to everyone but the face of the franchise, what message is the organization sending? Have a listen.
Brent & Iggy, courtesy Fan960:
Brent & Iggy, courtesy Fan960:
http://www.fan960.com/ondemand/media.jsp?content=20111122_161600_14048
Jokinen re-vamping his game:
Jokinen re-vamping his game:
http://video.flames.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=11&id=136995
5. For hockey fans, the phrase “dump and chase” is looked on unfavorably, and attributed to offensively challenged teams. In reality, some of the league’s elite teams use this strategy to maintain puck possession (Vancouver, Detroit). Through more intelligent D&C execution, they are able to re-gain control of the puck and maintain the offensive flow.
Sample 1 - Flames player: “my feet are not moving. My linemates’ feet are not moving. I will *fire* the puck around the boards (hopefully past the goalie’s stick) so we can battle the D men and *hope* to get the puck back.”
Sample 2 - DET/VAN player: “I have the puck and my teammates are changing OR not moving their feet. I will *hold* onto the puck and generate some speed for an extra 2-3 seconds, until a teammate is heading north with speed. I will then flip the puck *softly* into the opposite corner (where the goaltender cannot retrieve it) as my teammate continues on a straight path for the *bouncing* puck.”
By attacking the (often) flat-footed D men with speed and a direct path to the puck, there will be a greater chance of retrieval AND potential for confusion between the goaltender and the D men. Next time you see Detroit or Vancouver (especially in person), make a point of watching for this.
The Flames D&C actually involves throwing the puck away, with no speed, and hoping to get lucky with some physical play in the corner. Most of the time, it is rimmed around the boards and easily intercepted by the goaltender. From here, opposing D men can sweep around (with speed) and advance the puck. This is especially painful to watch on the power play.
5. For hockey fans, the phrase “dump and chase” is looked on unfavorably, and attributed to offensively challenged teams. In reality, some of the league’s elite teams use this strategy to maintain puck possession (Vancouver, Detroit). Through more intelligent D&C execution, they are able to re-gain control of the puck and maintain the offensive flow.
Sample 1 - Flames player: “my feet are not moving. My linemates’ feet are not moving. I will *fire* the puck around the boards (hopefully past the goalie’s stick) so we can battle the D men and *hope* to get the puck back.”
Sample 2 - DET/VAN player: “I have the puck and my teammates are changing OR not moving their feet. I will *hold* onto the puck and generate some speed for an extra 2-3 seconds, until a teammate is heading north with speed. I will then flip the puck *softly* into the opposite corner (where the goaltender cannot retrieve it) as my teammate continues on a straight path for the *bouncing* puck.”
By attacking the (often) flat-footed D men with speed and a direct path to the puck, there will be a greater chance of retrieval AND potential for confusion between the goaltender and the D men. Next time you see Detroit or Vancouver (especially in person), make a point of watching for this.
The Flames D&C actually involves throwing the puck away, with no speed, and hoping to get lucky with some physical play in the corner. Most of the time, it is rimmed around the boards and easily intercepted by the goaltender. From here, opposing D men can sweep around (with speed) and advance the puck. This is especially painful to watch on the power play.
6. This passive, perimeter offense looks like a bottom-feeder. Wrist shots to the crest from the outside (ahem, Bourque) make life pretty easy on the opposition. This is why every goaltender seems to have a bounce-back game when they face the Flames. More speed and physical assertiveness forces double-coverage, which opens up alternatives for outlet passes. A more aggressive forecheck -> opponent mistakes -> increased puck possession in scoring areas -> goals. This high-tempo offense needs to be utilized with more consistency, as illustrated in two 5-2 wins (in Minnesota, and at home vs Chicago).
THREE POSITIVES
1. Jokinen/Glencross consistency
2. Subtle youth movement
Horak, Byron, Backlund, Smith (sort of), Brodie: rewarded for solid/consistent play, filling in for veterans (Stajan/Morrison, Sarich and formerly Hagman) in replaceable roles. These youngsters not only bring speed and energy, but have proved to be very dependable. If Brent is able to rely on these players to play solid, significant minutes, the offensive totals will come. It may not involve elite-level talent, but the youth movement has begun in Calgary.
3. Rare prospect success
THREE POSITIVES
1. Jokinen/Glencross consistency
2. Subtle youth movement
Horak, Byron, Backlund, Smith (sort of), Brodie: rewarded for solid/consistent play, filling in for veterans (Stajan/Morrison, Sarich and formerly Hagman) in replaceable roles. These youngsters not only bring speed and energy, but have proved to be very dependable. If Brent is able to rely on these players to play solid, significant minutes, the offensive totals will come. It may not involve elite-level talent, but the youth movement has begun in Calgary.
3. Rare prospect success
This will help cushion the blow after the next shutout loss to Minnesota or Nashville at home. While a handful of these prospects are still at least one year away, it’s encouraging to see this type of production out of not only former 1st round picks, but even 5th-7th round picks:
Sven Baertschi (Portland) 45 pts in 19 GP
Sven Baertschi (Portland) 45 pts in 19 GP
Michael Ferland (Brandon) 42 pts in 28 GP
Greg Nemisz (AHL Abbotsford) 17 pts in 19 GP
Patrick Holland (Tri-City) 26 pts in 25 G
Max Reinhart (Kootenay) 31 pts in 23 GP
Johnny Gaudreau (Freshman, Boston College) 11 pts in 13 GP
Bill Arnold (Sophomore, Boston College) 14 pts in 13 GP
Markus Granlund (HIFK Helsinki) 11 pts in 19 GP, and a beautiful lacrosse goal:
As of today: Michael Ferland and Max Reinhart were named to Team Canada of the World Junior championships. Sven Baertschi was named to Team Switzerland. Here’s Assistant GM John Weisbrod on the announcements, courtesy Fan960:
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
10 Flames Forecasts for 11/12
*Glencross < 20 goals*
Glencross has been a streaky player from the outset in Calgary. His new deal won’t handcuff the team in terms of dollars, but the 4-year deal comes with expectations. The fact that Curtis played his best hockey in a 3 month stretch within a contract year wasn’t a coincidence, and that will be confirmed this season. Glencross will continue to evolve as an effective defensive forward, but he will not hit the 20-goal mark this season.
*Butler: plus player, avg 20 mins of ice*
Any time you give up the best player in a trade, it’s difficult to look positively on the return. In this case, however, the Regehr trade brought a versatile, mobile D man that will take a significant step forward this season. Chris Butler played in a number of roles with the Buffalo Sabres, varying from a healthy scratch to the top-pairing, alongside Tyler Myers. This season, Butler will take a significant step forward in his consistency, and solidify himself in a top-4 role. On top of that, he will average at least 20 minutes of ice time and come out a (+/-) plus player. Of course, Butler won’t replace Regehr’s presence on the back-end, but he will establish himself as a reliable top-4 D man in Calgary.
*Bouwmeester > 40 pts*
You read correctly. To this point, JBo’s highest point total with the Flames is 29. With greater team emphasis on two-way play, and increased ice-time (if possible) due to the loss of Regehr, Bouw will see more opportunities to jump up in the play and make things happen offensively. He’ll continue to get 2nd-rate PP time behind Giordano and Babchuk, which will also help his point totals, but his time in even strength situations will play an even larger factor. Bouwmeester was the go-to guy in Florida, and seemed to thrive in that role. When he arrived in Calgary, he found himself as one of many formidable forces on the back-end. Now that Regehr and Phaneuf have moved on, Bouw will once again be the go-to guy 5on5. His first two seasons have been underwhelming, which makes this an even safer prediction: hitting the 40 point mark, 2011-12 will be Bouwmeester’s best year as a Flame.
*Karlsson > 14 wins*
The “Calgary Tower” improved steadily over the 2010-2011 campaign. Not only do I expect that process to continue this season, but I expect Kiprusoff to take another step back. By and large, he has struggled in recent history, and a soon-to-be 35 year old goaltender isn’t likely to become more consistent overnight. Of course, he will steal the odd game, but his drastic swings in performance will not be tolerated to the same degree, especially with a back-up that the coach has confidence in. Karlsson will appear in 22-30 games, and will earn at least 14 wins this season. Bold prediction, no doubt, but if his game continues to evolve as it has, it’s not all that unrealistic.
*Cory Sarich: healthy scratch for 30+ games*
In recent history, Sarich has shown he isn't a full-time top-4 D man. His struggles with speedy forwards stands out as one major factor. The way I see it, there are three top-4 calibre D men on the team: Giordano, Bouwmeester and Hannan. To fill the last spot, you're left with two hopefuls who have played significant minutes in the past - Butler and Carson. I expect one of these two will take that final spot. Now we sit at the bottom two, and assuming Babchuk is penciled in as the 5th D man, things start to get messy. Outside of Sarich, you have one of Butler/Carson, Negrin, Brodie, Breen, Wilson, Smith and even Henry. There's a mix of one and two-way deals here, but if one of these guys stands out in training camp, Sarich is out. The Flames illustrated they are willing to put big contracts in the press box, as they sat Sarich and Staios (a combined 6.3 mill) early last season, while scratching Stajan and dropping Kotalik to the minors later on in the year. In a bottom-two role, the contributions of Sarich are easily replaceable. If the Flames are truly running a "meritocracy" this training camp, Sarich will be the odd man out.
*Byron fills in, scores 10*
The Flames blogosphere is a buzz about Paul Byron, mostly for the wrong reasons. I’ve read plenty of pieces that bash Byron as a prospect. What needs to be understood is that while he was an average prospect in the Sabres system, he's added to the mix in Calgary and immediately lands top-10 in the Flames' system. Of course, this reflects poorly on the Flames and isn't anything to marvel over, but it also means Byron is much closer to NHL minutes in Calgary. I expect there are still trades to come up front for the Flames prior to game 1 of the regular season. In concert with this will be Morrison's knee injury, which will create an opening for Byron as the Flames' first call-up on forward. He will fill in admirably in a depth role, notching 10+ goals in less than a full season with the big club.
*Brodie, Breen play entire year in Abbotsford*
I know it's fun to rehash Brodie's heroic training camp last season, and envision a stunning pre-season from Breen based on his improved play last season. On second thought: it's really not realistic for either to spend significant time with the big club. Brodie is a top prospect for the Flames, and by virtue of that, has had some unrealistic expectations placed on him for the coming year. Both of these prospects have improved steadily over the past year, but neither is a full-time NHLer as of today. I watched a handful of AHL games last season, and have kept a keen eye on the prospect games in Penticton. My assessment: neither Breen nor Brodie have stood out, which is what NHL calibre players should do in these settings. I expect both will be NHLers in years to come, but this won't be the year.
*Flames sit bottom-10 in goals against*
Over the summer, the Flames got younger and more mobile. You could argue they added skill, or improved depth, but the defensive play remains a huge question mark. In deleting two dependable players such as Langkow and Regehr while the goaltending position gets another year older, it's hard to see this team improving on its league-wide rank of 19th in goals against. This ranking may not get significantly worse, but expect CGY to land in the bottom-10 this season.
*Flames back into 8th place*
The result won't be far off the 2010-2011 campaign, but it will unfold in reverse. The Flames will explode out of the gate, and cool off drastically in the latter half of the season, backing into 8th place in the West. There will be playoffs, but like so many years before, not enough momentum leading into round one for any playoff success.
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
Glencross has been a streaky player from the outset in Calgary. His new deal won’t handcuff the team in terms of dollars, but the 4-year deal comes with expectations. The fact that Curtis played his best hockey in a 3 month stretch within a contract year wasn’t a coincidence, and that will be confirmed this season. Glencross will continue to evolve as an effective defensive forward, but he will not hit the 20-goal mark this season.
*Butler: plus player, avg 20 mins of ice*
Any time you give up the best player in a trade, it’s difficult to look positively on the return. In this case, however, the Regehr trade brought a versatile, mobile D man that will take a significant step forward this season. Chris Butler played in a number of roles with the Buffalo Sabres, varying from a healthy scratch to the top-pairing, alongside Tyler Myers. This season, Butler will take a significant step forward in his consistency, and solidify himself in a top-4 role. On top of that, he will average at least 20 minutes of ice time and come out a (+/-) plus player. Of course, Butler won’t replace Regehr’s presence on the back-end, but he will establish himself as a reliable top-4 D man in Calgary.
*Bouwmeester > 40 pts*
You read correctly. To this point, JBo’s highest point total with the Flames is 29. With greater team emphasis on two-way play, and increased ice-time (if possible) due to the loss of Regehr, Bouw will see more opportunities to jump up in the play and make things happen offensively. He’ll continue to get 2nd-rate PP time behind Giordano and Babchuk, which will also help his point totals, but his time in even strength situations will play an even larger factor. Bouwmeester was the go-to guy in Florida, and seemed to thrive in that role. When he arrived in Calgary, he found himself as one of many formidable forces on the back-end. Now that Regehr and Phaneuf have moved on, Bouw will once again be the go-to guy 5on5. His first two seasons have been underwhelming, which makes this an even safer prediction: hitting the 40 point mark, 2011-12 will be Bouwmeester’s best year as a Flame.
*Karlsson > 14 wins*
The “Calgary Tower” improved steadily over the 2010-2011 campaign. Not only do I expect that process to continue this season, but I expect Kiprusoff to take another step back. By and large, he has struggled in recent history, and a soon-to-be 35 year old goaltender isn’t likely to become more consistent overnight. Of course, he will steal the odd game, but his drastic swings in performance will not be tolerated to the same degree, especially with a back-up that the coach has confidence in. Karlsson will appear in 22-30 games, and will earn at least 14 wins this season. Bold prediction, no doubt, but if his game continues to evolve as it has, it’s not all that unrealistic.
*Cory Sarich: healthy scratch for 30+ games*
In recent history, Sarich has shown he isn't a full-time top-4 D man. His struggles with speedy forwards stands out as one major factor. The way I see it, there are three top-4 calibre D men on the team: Giordano, Bouwmeester and Hannan. To fill the last spot, you're left with two hopefuls who have played significant minutes in the past - Butler and Carson. I expect one of these two will take that final spot. Now we sit at the bottom two, and assuming Babchuk is penciled in as the 5th D man, things start to get messy. Outside of Sarich, you have one of Butler/Carson, Negrin, Brodie, Breen, Wilson, Smith and even Henry. There's a mix of one and two-way deals here, but if one of these guys stands out in training camp, Sarich is out. The Flames illustrated they are willing to put big contracts in the press box, as they sat Sarich and Staios (a combined 6.3 mill) early last season, while scratching Stajan and dropping Kotalik to the minors later on in the year. In a bottom-two role, the contributions of Sarich are easily replaceable. If the Flames are truly running a "meritocracy" this training camp, Sarich will be the odd man out.
*Babchuk <30 pts*
Anton Babchuk was a nice surprise last season. Acquired in a mid-season trade with the Carolina Hurricanes, Babs was an under-the-radar guy, capitalizing on his first experience in the Western Conference. His offensive instincts and bomb of a shot snuck up on the West, as he put up 35 points in total – including 11 goals. His defensive contributions slowly improved as the season went on. It will be crucial for Babchuk to continue progressing on the defensive side, as he will not reach the 30-point mark this season. He’ll get power play time, which will allow him to reach acceptable point totals, but that booming shot will face greater defensive coverage this year, and he will no longer be sneaking up on Flames’ opponents. Missed shots and poor decision-making will follow, and he will see a set-back in production as a result. Let’s call it “Phaneuf 2.0.”
*Byron fills in, scores 10*
The Flames blogosphere is a buzz about Paul Byron, mostly for the wrong reasons. I’ve read plenty of pieces that bash Byron as a prospect. What needs to be understood is that while he was an average prospect in the Sabres system, he's added to the mix in Calgary and immediately lands top-10 in the Flames' system. Of course, this reflects poorly on the Flames and isn't anything to marvel over, but it also means Byron is much closer to NHL minutes in Calgary. I expect there are still trades to come up front for the Flames prior to game 1 of the regular season. In concert with this will be Morrison's knee injury, which will create an opening for Byron as the Flames' first call-up on forward. He will fill in admirably in a depth role, notching 10+ goals in less than a full season with the big club.
*Brodie, Breen play entire year in Abbotsford*
I know it's fun to rehash Brodie's heroic training camp last season, and envision a stunning pre-season from Breen based on his improved play last season. On second thought: it's really not realistic for either to spend significant time with the big club. Brodie is a top prospect for the Flames, and by virtue of that, has had some unrealistic expectations placed on him for the coming year. Both of these prospects have improved steadily over the past year, but neither is a full-time NHLer as of today. I watched a handful of AHL games last season, and have kept a keen eye on the prospect games in Penticton. My assessment: neither Breen nor Brodie have stood out, which is what NHL calibre players should do in these settings. I expect both will be NHLers in years to come, but this won't be the year.
*Flames sit bottom-10 in goals against*
Over the summer, the Flames got younger and more mobile. You could argue they added skill, or improved depth, but the defensive play remains a huge question mark. In deleting two dependable players such as Langkow and Regehr while the goaltending position gets another year older, it's hard to see this team improving on its league-wide rank of 19th in goals against. This ranking may not get significantly worse, but expect CGY to land in the bottom-10 this season.
*Flames back into 8th place*
The result won't be far off the 2010-2011 campaign, but it will unfold in reverse. The Flames will explode out of the gate, and cool off drastically in the latter half of the season, backing into 8th place in the West. There will be playoffs, but like so many years before, not enough momentum leading into round one for any playoff success.
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Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Scoring Projections & The Odd Blue Jeans Reference
At the conclusion of the 2010-2011 campaign, the Calgary Flames found themselves ranked 7th in the NHL in ‘Goals For,’ scoring 241 goals in total. Based on the recent history and limited top-end skill in the line-up, this trend is not likely to continue in the fall. 9-1 wins in Colorado and a vastly improved PP in the last half played a part in this statistic, but the most significant variable comes in bounce-back campaigns. The likes of Tanguay, Morrison, Glencross and Jackman all put up decent point totals, arguably beyond expectations. Can we expect these heightened contributions a second time around? If not, how much can we expect team totals to drop off by April 2012?
Please note that this exercise is intended to be a reasonable prediction only, and thus nowhere near an exact science. As such, career years and unforeseen factors (trades, long-term injuries, etc) will not, and cannot be accounted for. Quite simply, these projections serve as a snapshot-in-time. While reading, please use this phrase: The Flames can RELY on ____ to score ____ goals this season:
Tanguay (20), Backlund (15), Iginla (32)
Glencross (18), Jokinen (15), Bourque (24)
Hagman (10), Langkow (12), Moss (14)
Morrison (8), Stajan (6), Jackman (8)
Fill-in fwds (<40 games): Kostopoulos (4), P-L-L (1)
Forward goal total: 187
Bouwmeester (5), Giordano (8)
Butler (4), Sarich (2)
Carson (0), Babchuk (8)
Fill-in D (<40 games): Brodie (2), Wilson (2)
Defence goal total: 31
Based on these assumptions, the Flames are due to score 218 goals this season. A 33-goal setback may seem insignificant over 82 games, but it would likely bury the Flames in the bottom ten teams league-wide. What does this mean?
Kipper and friends finished 19th best in 'Goals Against' in 2010-2011, perhaps under the category of "not good." With our 'Goals For' estimate in mind, keeping the puck out of their own net will be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs moving forward. It is my belief the team underachieved defensively last season, and it will continue to be an uphill battle from here.
'Goals Against' will improve if...
A) the PK can bounce back from a tough season. The Flames gave up 48 goals when a man short, good for 22nd best in the NHL. You could also call it 9th worst, but who needs that type of negativity? A healthy Daymond Langkow may help the cause, as an upgrade over the likes of Stajan, Morrison, Kostopoulos et al on the PK. His face-off consistency has never been strong, but Langks has proven he can be a solid PK option in spite of this weakness. Bourque seems to be more effective alongside Langks in all areas, but his defensive play is arguably the most drastic example of this.
B) Kiprusoff improves his consistency: both 5on5 and in special teams scenarios. I continue to support Kiprusoff as a #1 goaltender, but the wild swings game-to-game were a concern last season. He would steal a 1-0 win in Nashville one night, and completely blow it in Detroit the next game. He would make an outstanding desperation save, before failing to make the next routine save. Here's hoping Karlsson can push him to be more consistent, but something tells me Kipper will once again play 70+ games, in another "off-year."
C) Mobility saves the day on D. The trend of recent years has been the sexy and seemingly overvalued "mobile, puck mover" on D. The loss of Regehr will hurt, no question. However, with the increased responsibility for Giordano and the additions of Butler and Carson to the blueline, you could argue this team is more equipped to "keep up" with the quicker forwards in the rugged west. The D corps may be easier to play against without Regehr, but if a mobile back-end is in fact more important in today's game, we could see a competent blueline this year... Of course, there is strong emphasis on the word "could."
The Flames seemingly over-achieved in the goal scoring category last winter, which means a significant step forward in defensive play will be the only tonic to avoid another year of mediocrity. The franchise threw out its brand-name jeans (Regehr) in favor of some Costco and Walmart alternatives (Butler, Carson). If the cheaper material doesn't fade within the first few months, the Flames will boast an understated, but effective style. Otherwise, it may be time to pull out that old pair of black cords... And nobody likes wearing cords.
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Please note that this exercise is intended to be a reasonable prediction only, and thus nowhere near an exact science. As such, career years and unforeseen factors (trades, long-term injuries, etc) will not, and cannot be accounted for. Quite simply, these projections serve as a snapshot-in-time. While reading, please use this phrase: The Flames can RELY on ____ to score ____ goals this season:
Tanguay (20), Backlund (15), Iginla (32)
Glencross (18), Jokinen (15), Bourque (24)
Hagman (10), Langkow (12), Moss (14)
Morrison (8), Stajan (6), Jackman (8)
Fill-in fwds (<40 games): Kostopoulos (4), P-L-L (1)
Forward goal total: 187
Bouwmeester (5), Giordano (8)
Butler (4), Sarich (2)
Carson (0), Babchuk (8)
Fill-in D (<40 games): Brodie (2), Wilson (2)
Defence goal total: 31
Based on these assumptions, the Flames are due to score 218 goals this season. A 33-goal setback may seem insignificant over 82 games, but it would likely bury the Flames in the bottom ten teams league-wide. What does this mean?
Kipper and friends finished 19th best in 'Goals Against' in 2010-2011, perhaps under the category of "not good." With our 'Goals For' estimate in mind, keeping the puck out of their own net will be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs moving forward. It is my belief the team underachieved defensively last season, and it will continue to be an uphill battle from here.
'Goals Against' will improve if...
A) the PK can bounce back from a tough season. The Flames gave up 48 goals when a man short, good for 22nd best in the NHL. You could also call it 9th worst, but who needs that type of negativity? A healthy Daymond Langkow may help the cause, as an upgrade over the likes of Stajan, Morrison, Kostopoulos et al on the PK. His face-off consistency has never been strong, but Langks has proven he can be a solid PK option in spite of this weakness. Bourque seems to be more effective alongside Langks in all areas, but his defensive play is arguably the most drastic example of this.
B) Kiprusoff improves his consistency: both 5on5 and in special teams scenarios. I continue to support Kiprusoff as a #1 goaltender, but the wild swings game-to-game were a concern last season. He would steal a 1-0 win in Nashville one night, and completely blow it in Detroit the next game. He would make an outstanding desperation save, before failing to make the next routine save. Here's hoping Karlsson can push him to be more consistent, but something tells me Kipper will once again play 70+ games, in another "off-year."
C) Mobility saves the day on D. The trend of recent years has been the sexy and seemingly overvalued "mobile, puck mover" on D. The loss of Regehr will hurt, no question. However, with the increased responsibility for Giordano and the additions of Butler and Carson to the blueline, you could argue this team is more equipped to "keep up" with the quicker forwards in the rugged west. The D corps may be easier to play against without Regehr, but if a mobile back-end is in fact more important in today's game, we could see a competent blueline this year... Of course, there is strong emphasis on the word "could."
The Flames seemingly over-achieved in the goal scoring category last winter, which means a significant step forward in defensive play will be the only tonic to avoid another year of mediocrity. The franchise threw out its brand-name jeans (Regehr) in favor of some Costco and Walmart alternatives (Butler, Carson). If the cheaper material doesn't fade within the first few months, the Flames will boast an understated, but effective style. Otherwise, it may be time to pull out that old pair of black cords... And nobody likes wearing cords.
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
The Erixon Escape & Other Dramatic Events
Let me break down the Tim Erixon situation in a slightly different way. Based on the countless “concerns” expressed by the Erixon camp so late in the process, it had nothing to do with not wanting to play in Calgary, and everything to do with playing for the New York Rangers. Did the player and his agent really think any team would allow their best prospect to go back into the draft after two solid years of development? The Erixon camp would have expected his rights to be dealt by the Flames. So, where do you trade his rights? To a team the player would actually sign with, otherwise the trade doesn’t get done. Did Feaster look to partner with the Rangers because he’s wanted to land Roman Horak for years? Not a chance. Tim and his agent made it difficult on the Flames for one reason: Erixon wanted to play in New York. He could have been traded to any of the other 29 teams, and you’re telling me it just happened to have been his birthplace, and his dad’s former team? I don’t buy it. If Tim was truly concerned about playing time and cap space, he would have been traded to and signed with the Oilers, Islanders or Panthers, NOT the New York Rangers. We’re talking about an organization that has a 7.5 million dollar defenseman playing in their farm system in order to make the dollars work under the cap. For whatever reason, Tim’s cap concerns disappeared as he signed on the dotted line in New York. The player had all of the leverage and bargaining power, and he used it to sign exactly where he wanted to play.
There’s a ton of Flames-bashing going on as a result of this. Simply put: when you offer a rookie the max contract allowed under the CBA, with select provisions to protect the player from AHL assignments and he still won’t sign, you do whatever you can to get some assets back for that player - which is exactly what Feaster did. I don’t blame the Flames for “waiting too long,” or the city for being an “undesirable playing destination” because I think both arguments are completely flawed. If your top young prospect appears concerned about the playing environment, you go to the 11th hour in an attempt to get the deal done – which is what Feaster did. You don’t just quit on the spot when you hear that a valued prospect is concerned about the “cap situation.” The trade itself? The team has two second-round picks it didn’t have before, and a mid-level prospect that has two years of development under his belt. By no means is it the ideal scenario, but I commend the Flames for making the best of a very tough situation. Good riddance Tiny Tim.
The additions of Craig Hartsburg and Jamie Pringle to the coaching staff will be important for the Flames down the road. By virtue of having a boatload of contracts off the books next offseason, and the impending buyouts/trades this June, the Flames will be a much younger team going forward. Let me remind everyone that trading Jarome Iginla is not the only way to get younger. With this process unfolding, it will be important to boast an experienced coaching staff, more suited to teaching than yelling and screaming. To me, that’s exactly what these two additions bring: an element of experience, with the skills and willingness to work with younger players. The other important factor in these hirings is familiarity, as Brent has worked with both coaches in his stints with Team Canada.
It will be interesting to see who the club will hire as AGM. If Feaster is looking for someone currently employed by another team, I expect he will have to wait until after the draft is complete. Makes sense, wouldn’t any organization be reluctant to have their management and scouts work an entire year leading up to the draft, just to take their knowledge and findings elsewhere before draft day? My preferred candidate would be Rick Dudley, given his past experience with JayFe, eye for young talent and recent availability. This may be a challenge, however; I don’t imagine Dudley is in any rush to take a demotion and work for his former AGM. Michel Goulet may be the more practical alternative. I expect we will hear about contract extensions for both Alex Tanguay and Henrik Karlsson within the next week. Just a hunch...
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