What's with questioning the "direction" of a team when it acquires a skilled, top-6 player? If any organization is turning down a shot at a proven scorer at 29 years old in order to stay true to the "direction" of the franchise, they need to get a new direction. In any industry, competitiveness is essential, regardless of the 5-year plan.
Mike Cammalleri has a high skill level. The Flames do not. He's performed well in the playoffs within the last two seasons. The Flames haven't even qualified. He's a proven top-6 guy and adds another weapon to the PP. And most of all, he was underachieving this season, and therefore available in the market. Are the Flames in a position to pass up on this guy because they're in a soft rebuild (or "re-tool")? No chance.
In terms of direction, since when is a 29-year old winger over-the-hill? This is the big leagues, where most players don't make a significant impact until age 24-25. The age component of the deal is entirely reasonable, especially when shedding a 30-year old in the process, with a contract that was arguably worse (double the term). To me, it's a win: a wash in terms of age, for more skill and fewer years. And no, I don't expect him to put up 80 points in a Flames sweater again. I could certainly live with 65-70 points in the next two seasons, however.
On top of all the asset banter, professional hockey is about entertainment, and Cammalleri is the type of player fans come to see.
Now, for the other assets that were sent packing...
Patrick Holland is a heck of an overachieving 7th-round prospect, but how much has he elevated his NHL potential in this time frame? Could he be a top-6 forward in the NHL one day? Maybe. More likely, however, he's a 3rd or 4th line utility player. Guys like that are readily available, and the Flames have plenty of them in the system as is.
Losing a second round pick (in 2013) is a concern - no question... But you'd expect there will be a number of players made available at the deadline (Stempniak, Moss, Morrison, Jackman...?) for contending teams that *could* bring about a small handful of 3rd-5th round picks. Quantity over quality is a decent consolation prize when it comes to draft picks.
THAT THROW-IN GOALIE WITH A FUNNY NAME
Originally, I was skeptical about Karri Ramo as a "throw in" for the deal. I figured it was Feaster re-acquiring a former TB prospect as his reclamation project. Ramo is certainly a project, but as it turns out, he may not be far off in terms of everyday contributions at the NHL level. Known as a top goalie in the KHL, with a back-to-back goals against avg of 1.97, he's worth the gamble. And at only 25 years old, this "throw-in" goaltender may bring much more:
http://m.torontosun.com/2012/01/13/goalie-acquired-in-cammalleri-deal-could-spell-end-of-kipper-with-flames
Rebuild, Re-tool or contend, there will always be a need to add skilled, proven players to the line-up. Just ask the Oilers or Islanders. Cap space notwithstanding, I could see Cammalleri fitting in on 25 of the 30 teams in the league. You can scout and draft well, calling it "organizational direction" or "progress." Yet, if you're not constantly improving your team's competitiveness, free agents will sign elsewhere, and your former first-round picks will diminish into obscurity.
Welcome back, Cammo.
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Monday, January 16, 2012
Monday, November 28, 2011
Calgary Flames Quarterly Report
This has been a painfully predictable start in the eyes of many Flames followers, yet one theme prevails atop the struggles: the Flames are bad, but not THIS bad. We could point to a lack of skill, but that argument no longer carries weight. The likes of Nashville, Phoenix and Minnesota seem to be getting by with solid goaltending and a lack of high-end skill. So why are the Flames in 13th place? Here are a number of explanations for it.
1. A lack of sustained back-pressure from the forwards has allowed opposing players significant time and space with the puck. Without any back-pressure, the opposition isn't forced to make quick (and often poor) decisions with the puck. As a result, the D men are forced to attack, rather than playing a more conservative contain game, which leads to poor pinches and odd man rushes against. Basically, a lack of defensive pressure and support from the forwards makes the D men - and the scoreboard - look atrocious.
1. A lack of sustained back-pressure from the forwards has allowed opposing players significant time and space with the puck. Without any back-pressure, the opposition isn't forced to make quick (and often poor) decisions with the puck. As a result, the D men are forced to attack, rather than playing a more conservative contain game, which leads to poor pinches and odd man rushes against. Basically, a lack of defensive pressure and support from the forwards makes the D men - and the scoreboard - look atrocious.
2. While it may work in short spurts, heavy dependence on goaltending is unsustainable. Both Kiprusoff and Karlsson have been stellar, but these contributions merely mask shortcomings in team performance. A number of wins (vs. Colorado especially) were the result of timely goaltending, whereas a segment of tight losses could have been blowouts (vs. Buffalo, Detroit, St Louis) if not for steady netminding from the tandem. So, could it be worse for this team? Actually, it could. Not to say you shouldn't expect your goaltender to be good, but when you allow the other team to come at you in waves, you won’t win with any regularity.
3. The Flames' horrendous power play has nothing to do with a lack of skill or an aging team. In fact, it's more the result of a brutal break-out. There is a lack of urgency and flow leaving the zone. The feet are not moving, and the D simply throw the puck into the corner, where the forwards fail to outnumber the opposition in puck battles. Why isn't the *extra* man utilized here? Once they gain the zone (if ever), puck-movement is forced and predictable, as the likes of Iginla, Tanguay and Bourque stand around, waiting for the play to come to them. When the feet aren't moving, the opposition is able to stand still and block shooting lanes with ease. Once the PP quarterbacks (Giordano, Bouwmeester) lose patience with the lack of flow, they casually throw the puck right into some shin pads, and the squad is forced to reset.
4. Poor offensive AND defensive efforts from the top line is hand-cuffing this team. If the Flames continue to rely on Joker & Glencross to produce offense against the likes of Datsyuk and Toews every game, 13th place will be best-case for the team. Based on matchups, the top-line should be potting one goal per game. At this rate, the #2 “shutdown” line can compliment these heavy hitters with some production at key times. Instead, the players facing the most difficult match-ups (#2) are also most effective in the offensive zone. To me, that comes down to hustle. We can give it a rest with the “Iggy deserves better” and “send him to a contender” until he starts performing again.
3. The Flames' horrendous power play has nothing to do with a lack of skill or an aging team. In fact, it's more the result of a brutal break-out. There is a lack of urgency and flow leaving the zone. The feet are not moving, and the D simply throw the puck into the corner, where the forwards fail to outnumber the opposition in puck battles. Why isn't the *extra* man utilized here? Once they gain the zone (if ever), puck-movement is forced and predictable, as the likes of Iginla, Tanguay and Bourque stand around, waiting for the play to come to them. When the feet aren't moving, the opposition is able to stand still and block shooting lanes with ease. Once the PP quarterbacks (Giordano, Bouwmeester) lose patience with the lack of flow, they casually throw the puck right into some shin pads, and the squad is forced to reset.
4. Poor offensive AND defensive efforts from the top line is hand-cuffing this team. If the Flames continue to rely on Joker & Glencross to produce offense against the likes of Datsyuk and Toews every game, 13th place will be best-case for the team. Based on matchups, the top-line should be potting one goal per game. At this rate, the #2 “shutdown” line can compliment these heavy hitters with some production at key times. Instead, the players facing the most difficult match-ups (#2) are also most effective in the offensive zone. To me, that comes down to hustle. We can give it a rest with the “Iggy deserves better” and “send him to a contender” until he starts performing again.
Over the last two seasons, it has become very clear that Sutter and Iginla have some philosophical differences. If the captain doesn’t play within the team structure at age 34, who will be held accountable to it? If the message applies to everyone but the face of the franchise, what message is the organization sending? Have a listen.
Brent & Iggy, courtesy Fan960:
Brent & Iggy, courtesy Fan960:
http://www.fan960.com/ondemand/media.jsp?content=20111122_161600_14048
Jokinen re-vamping his game:
Jokinen re-vamping his game:
http://video.flames.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=11&id=136995
5. For hockey fans, the phrase “dump and chase” is looked on unfavorably, and attributed to offensively challenged teams. In reality, some of the league’s elite teams use this strategy to maintain puck possession (Vancouver, Detroit). Through more intelligent D&C execution, they are able to re-gain control of the puck and maintain the offensive flow.
Sample 1 - Flames player: “my feet are not moving. My linemates’ feet are not moving. I will *fire* the puck around the boards (hopefully past the goalie’s stick) so we can battle the D men and *hope* to get the puck back.”
Sample 2 - DET/VAN player: “I have the puck and my teammates are changing OR not moving their feet. I will *hold* onto the puck and generate some speed for an extra 2-3 seconds, until a teammate is heading north with speed. I will then flip the puck *softly* into the opposite corner (where the goaltender cannot retrieve it) as my teammate continues on a straight path for the *bouncing* puck.”
By attacking the (often) flat-footed D men with speed and a direct path to the puck, there will be a greater chance of retrieval AND potential for confusion between the goaltender and the D men. Next time you see Detroit or Vancouver (especially in person), make a point of watching for this.
The Flames D&C actually involves throwing the puck away, with no speed, and hoping to get lucky with some physical play in the corner. Most of the time, it is rimmed around the boards and easily intercepted by the goaltender. From here, opposing D men can sweep around (with speed) and advance the puck. This is especially painful to watch on the power play.
5. For hockey fans, the phrase “dump and chase” is looked on unfavorably, and attributed to offensively challenged teams. In reality, some of the league’s elite teams use this strategy to maintain puck possession (Vancouver, Detroit). Through more intelligent D&C execution, they are able to re-gain control of the puck and maintain the offensive flow.
Sample 1 - Flames player: “my feet are not moving. My linemates’ feet are not moving. I will *fire* the puck around the boards (hopefully past the goalie’s stick) so we can battle the D men and *hope* to get the puck back.”
Sample 2 - DET/VAN player: “I have the puck and my teammates are changing OR not moving their feet. I will *hold* onto the puck and generate some speed for an extra 2-3 seconds, until a teammate is heading north with speed. I will then flip the puck *softly* into the opposite corner (where the goaltender cannot retrieve it) as my teammate continues on a straight path for the *bouncing* puck.”
By attacking the (often) flat-footed D men with speed and a direct path to the puck, there will be a greater chance of retrieval AND potential for confusion between the goaltender and the D men. Next time you see Detroit or Vancouver (especially in person), make a point of watching for this.
The Flames D&C actually involves throwing the puck away, with no speed, and hoping to get lucky with some physical play in the corner. Most of the time, it is rimmed around the boards and easily intercepted by the goaltender. From here, opposing D men can sweep around (with speed) and advance the puck. This is especially painful to watch on the power play.
6. This passive, perimeter offense looks like a bottom-feeder. Wrist shots to the crest from the outside (ahem, Bourque) make life pretty easy on the opposition. This is why every goaltender seems to have a bounce-back game when they face the Flames. More speed and physical assertiveness forces double-coverage, which opens up alternatives for outlet passes. A more aggressive forecheck -> opponent mistakes -> increased puck possession in scoring areas -> goals. This high-tempo offense needs to be utilized with more consistency, as illustrated in two 5-2 wins (in Minnesota, and at home vs Chicago).
THREE POSITIVES
1. Jokinen/Glencross consistency
2. Subtle youth movement
Horak, Byron, Backlund, Smith (sort of), Brodie: rewarded for solid/consistent play, filling in for veterans (Stajan/Morrison, Sarich and formerly Hagman) in replaceable roles. These youngsters not only bring speed and energy, but have proved to be very dependable. If Brent is able to rely on these players to play solid, significant minutes, the offensive totals will come. It may not involve elite-level talent, but the youth movement has begun in Calgary.
3. Rare prospect success
THREE POSITIVES
1. Jokinen/Glencross consistency
2. Subtle youth movement
Horak, Byron, Backlund, Smith (sort of), Brodie: rewarded for solid/consistent play, filling in for veterans (Stajan/Morrison, Sarich and formerly Hagman) in replaceable roles. These youngsters not only bring speed and energy, but have proved to be very dependable. If Brent is able to rely on these players to play solid, significant minutes, the offensive totals will come. It may not involve elite-level talent, but the youth movement has begun in Calgary.
3. Rare prospect success
This will help cushion the blow after the next shutout loss to Minnesota or Nashville at home. While a handful of these prospects are still at least one year away, it’s encouraging to see this type of production out of not only former 1st round picks, but even 5th-7th round picks:
Sven Baertschi (Portland) 45 pts in 19 GP
Sven Baertschi (Portland) 45 pts in 19 GP
Michael Ferland (Brandon) 42 pts in 28 GP
Greg Nemisz (AHL Abbotsford) 17 pts in 19 GP
Patrick Holland (Tri-City) 26 pts in 25 G
Max Reinhart (Kootenay) 31 pts in 23 GP
Johnny Gaudreau (Freshman, Boston College) 11 pts in 13 GP
Bill Arnold (Sophomore, Boston College) 14 pts in 13 GP
Markus Granlund (HIFK Helsinki) 11 pts in 19 GP, and a beautiful lacrosse goal:
As of today: Michael Ferland and Max Reinhart were named to Team Canada of the World Junior championships. Sven Baertschi was named to Team Switzerland. Here’s Assistant GM John Weisbrod on the announcements, courtesy Fan960:
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Tuesday, September 13, 2011
10 Flames Forecasts for 11/12
*Glencross < 20 goals*
Glencross has been a streaky player from the outset in Calgary. His new deal won’t handcuff the team in terms of dollars, but the 4-year deal comes with expectations. The fact that Curtis played his best hockey in a 3 month stretch within a contract year wasn’t a coincidence, and that will be confirmed this season. Glencross will continue to evolve as an effective defensive forward, but he will not hit the 20-goal mark this season.
*Butler: plus player, avg 20 mins of ice*
Any time you give up the best player in a trade, it’s difficult to look positively on the return. In this case, however, the Regehr trade brought a versatile, mobile D man that will take a significant step forward this season. Chris Butler played in a number of roles with the Buffalo Sabres, varying from a healthy scratch to the top-pairing, alongside Tyler Myers. This season, Butler will take a significant step forward in his consistency, and solidify himself in a top-4 role. On top of that, he will average at least 20 minutes of ice time and come out a (+/-) plus player. Of course, Butler won’t replace Regehr’s presence on the back-end, but he will establish himself as a reliable top-4 D man in Calgary.
*Bouwmeester > 40 pts*
You read correctly. To this point, JBo’s highest point total with the Flames is 29. With greater team emphasis on two-way play, and increased ice-time (if possible) due to the loss of Regehr, Bouw will see more opportunities to jump up in the play and make things happen offensively. He’ll continue to get 2nd-rate PP time behind Giordano and Babchuk, which will also help his point totals, but his time in even strength situations will play an even larger factor. Bouwmeester was the go-to guy in Florida, and seemed to thrive in that role. When he arrived in Calgary, he found himself as one of many formidable forces on the back-end. Now that Regehr and Phaneuf have moved on, Bouw will once again be the go-to guy 5on5. His first two seasons have been underwhelming, which makes this an even safer prediction: hitting the 40 point mark, 2011-12 will be Bouwmeester’s best year as a Flame.
*Karlsson > 14 wins*
The “Calgary Tower” improved steadily over the 2010-2011 campaign. Not only do I expect that process to continue this season, but I expect Kiprusoff to take another step back. By and large, he has struggled in recent history, and a soon-to-be 35 year old goaltender isn’t likely to become more consistent overnight. Of course, he will steal the odd game, but his drastic swings in performance will not be tolerated to the same degree, especially with a back-up that the coach has confidence in. Karlsson will appear in 22-30 games, and will earn at least 14 wins this season. Bold prediction, no doubt, but if his game continues to evolve as it has, it’s not all that unrealistic.
*Cory Sarich: healthy scratch for 30+ games*
In recent history, Sarich has shown he isn't a full-time top-4 D man. His struggles with speedy forwards stands out as one major factor. The way I see it, there are three top-4 calibre D men on the team: Giordano, Bouwmeester and Hannan. To fill the last spot, you're left with two hopefuls who have played significant minutes in the past - Butler and Carson. I expect one of these two will take that final spot. Now we sit at the bottom two, and assuming Babchuk is penciled in as the 5th D man, things start to get messy. Outside of Sarich, you have one of Butler/Carson, Negrin, Brodie, Breen, Wilson, Smith and even Henry. There's a mix of one and two-way deals here, but if one of these guys stands out in training camp, Sarich is out. The Flames illustrated they are willing to put big contracts in the press box, as they sat Sarich and Staios (a combined 6.3 mill) early last season, while scratching Stajan and dropping Kotalik to the minors later on in the year. In a bottom-two role, the contributions of Sarich are easily replaceable. If the Flames are truly running a "meritocracy" this training camp, Sarich will be the odd man out.
*Byron fills in, scores 10*
The Flames blogosphere is a buzz about Paul Byron, mostly for the wrong reasons. I’ve read plenty of pieces that bash Byron as a prospect. What needs to be understood is that while he was an average prospect in the Sabres system, he's added to the mix in Calgary and immediately lands top-10 in the Flames' system. Of course, this reflects poorly on the Flames and isn't anything to marvel over, but it also means Byron is much closer to NHL minutes in Calgary. I expect there are still trades to come up front for the Flames prior to game 1 of the regular season. In concert with this will be Morrison's knee injury, which will create an opening for Byron as the Flames' first call-up on forward. He will fill in admirably in a depth role, notching 10+ goals in less than a full season with the big club.
*Brodie, Breen play entire year in Abbotsford*
I know it's fun to rehash Brodie's heroic training camp last season, and envision a stunning pre-season from Breen based on his improved play last season. On second thought: it's really not realistic for either to spend significant time with the big club. Brodie is a top prospect for the Flames, and by virtue of that, has had some unrealistic expectations placed on him for the coming year. Both of these prospects have improved steadily over the past year, but neither is a full-time NHLer as of today. I watched a handful of AHL games last season, and have kept a keen eye on the prospect games in Penticton. My assessment: neither Breen nor Brodie have stood out, which is what NHL calibre players should do in these settings. I expect both will be NHLers in years to come, but this won't be the year.
*Flames sit bottom-10 in goals against*
Over the summer, the Flames got younger and more mobile. You could argue they added skill, or improved depth, but the defensive play remains a huge question mark. In deleting two dependable players such as Langkow and Regehr while the goaltending position gets another year older, it's hard to see this team improving on its league-wide rank of 19th in goals against. This ranking may not get significantly worse, but expect CGY to land in the bottom-10 this season.
*Flames back into 8th place*
The result won't be far off the 2010-2011 campaign, but it will unfold in reverse. The Flames will explode out of the gate, and cool off drastically in the latter half of the season, backing into 8th place in the West. There will be playoffs, but like so many years before, not enough momentum leading into round one for any playoff success.
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Glencross has been a streaky player from the outset in Calgary. His new deal won’t handcuff the team in terms of dollars, but the 4-year deal comes with expectations. The fact that Curtis played his best hockey in a 3 month stretch within a contract year wasn’t a coincidence, and that will be confirmed this season. Glencross will continue to evolve as an effective defensive forward, but he will not hit the 20-goal mark this season.
*Butler: plus player, avg 20 mins of ice*
Any time you give up the best player in a trade, it’s difficult to look positively on the return. In this case, however, the Regehr trade brought a versatile, mobile D man that will take a significant step forward this season. Chris Butler played in a number of roles with the Buffalo Sabres, varying from a healthy scratch to the top-pairing, alongside Tyler Myers. This season, Butler will take a significant step forward in his consistency, and solidify himself in a top-4 role. On top of that, he will average at least 20 minutes of ice time and come out a (+/-) plus player. Of course, Butler won’t replace Regehr’s presence on the back-end, but he will establish himself as a reliable top-4 D man in Calgary.
*Bouwmeester > 40 pts*
You read correctly. To this point, JBo’s highest point total with the Flames is 29. With greater team emphasis on two-way play, and increased ice-time (if possible) due to the loss of Regehr, Bouw will see more opportunities to jump up in the play and make things happen offensively. He’ll continue to get 2nd-rate PP time behind Giordano and Babchuk, which will also help his point totals, but his time in even strength situations will play an even larger factor. Bouwmeester was the go-to guy in Florida, and seemed to thrive in that role. When he arrived in Calgary, he found himself as one of many formidable forces on the back-end. Now that Regehr and Phaneuf have moved on, Bouw will once again be the go-to guy 5on5. His first two seasons have been underwhelming, which makes this an even safer prediction: hitting the 40 point mark, 2011-12 will be Bouwmeester’s best year as a Flame.
*Karlsson > 14 wins*
The “Calgary Tower” improved steadily over the 2010-2011 campaign. Not only do I expect that process to continue this season, but I expect Kiprusoff to take another step back. By and large, he has struggled in recent history, and a soon-to-be 35 year old goaltender isn’t likely to become more consistent overnight. Of course, he will steal the odd game, but his drastic swings in performance will not be tolerated to the same degree, especially with a back-up that the coach has confidence in. Karlsson will appear in 22-30 games, and will earn at least 14 wins this season. Bold prediction, no doubt, but if his game continues to evolve as it has, it’s not all that unrealistic.
*Cory Sarich: healthy scratch for 30+ games*
In recent history, Sarich has shown he isn't a full-time top-4 D man. His struggles with speedy forwards stands out as one major factor. The way I see it, there are three top-4 calibre D men on the team: Giordano, Bouwmeester and Hannan. To fill the last spot, you're left with two hopefuls who have played significant minutes in the past - Butler and Carson. I expect one of these two will take that final spot. Now we sit at the bottom two, and assuming Babchuk is penciled in as the 5th D man, things start to get messy. Outside of Sarich, you have one of Butler/Carson, Negrin, Brodie, Breen, Wilson, Smith and even Henry. There's a mix of one and two-way deals here, but if one of these guys stands out in training camp, Sarich is out. The Flames illustrated they are willing to put big contracts in the press box, as they sat Sarich and Staios (a combined 6.3 mill) early last season, while scratching Stajan and dropping Kotalik to the minors later on in the year. In a bottom-two role, the contributions of Sarich are easily replaceable. If the Flames are truly running a "meritocracy" this training camp, Sarich will be the odd man out.
*Babchuk <30 pts*
Anton Babchuk was a nice surprise last season. Acquired in a mid-season trade with the Carolina Hurricanes, Babs was an under-the-radar guy, capitalizing on his first experience in the Western Conference. His offensive instincts and bomb of a shot snuck up on the West, as he put up 35 points in total – including 11 goals. His defensive contributions slowly improved as the season went on. It will be crucial for Babchuk to continue progressing on the defensive side, as he will not reach the 30-point mark this season. He’ll get power play time, which will allow him to reach acceptable point totals, but that booming shot will face greater defensive coverage this year, and he will no longer be sneaking up on Flames’ opponents. Missed shots and poor decision-making will follow, and he will see a set-back in production as a result. Let’s call it “Phaneuf 2.0.”
*Byron fills in, scores 10*
The Flames blogosphere is a buzz about Paul Byron, mostly for the wrong reasons. I’ve read plenty of pieces that bash Byron as a prospect. What needs to be understood is that while he was an average prospect in the Sabres system, he's added to the mix in Calgary and immediately lands top-10 in the Flames' system. Of course, this reflects poorly on the Flames and isn't anything to marvel over, but it also means Byron is much closer to NHL minutes in Calgary. I expect there are still trades to come up front for the Flames prior to game 1 of the regular season. In concert with this will be Morrison's knee injury, which will create an opening for Byron as the Flames' first call-up on forward. He will fill in admirably in a depth role, notching 10+ goals in less than a full season with the big club.
*Brodie, Breen play entire year in Abbotsford*
I know it's fun to rehash Brodie's heroic training camp last season, and envision a stunning pre-season from Breen based on his improved play last season. On second thought: it's really not realistic for either to spend significant time with the big club. Brodie is a top prospect for the Flames, and by virtue of that, has had some unrealistic expectations placed on him for the coming year. Both of these prospects have improved steadily over the past year, but neither is a full-time NHLer as of today. I watched a handful of AHL games last season, and have kept a keen eye on the prospect games in Penticton. My assessment: neither Breen nor Brodie have stood out, which is what NHL calibre players should do in these settings. I expect both will be NHLers in years to come, but this won't be the year.
*Flames sit bottom-10 in goals against*
Over the summer, the Flames got younger and more mobile. You could argue they added skill, or improved depth, but the defensive play remains a huge question mark. In deleting two dependable players such as Langkow and Regehr while the goaltending position gets another year older, it's hard to see this team improving on its league-wide rank of 19th in goals against. This ranking may not get significantly worse, but expect CGY to land in the bottom-10 this season.
*Flames back into 8th place*
The result won't be far off the 2010-2011 campaign, but it will unfold in reverse. The Flames will explode out of the gate, and cool off drastically in the latter half of the season, backing into 8th place in the West. There will be playoffs, but like so many years before, not enough momentum leading into round one for any playoff success.
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Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Scoring Projections & The Odd Blue Jeans Reference
At the conclusion of the 2010-2011 campaign, the Calgary Flames found themselves ranked 7th in the NHL in ‘Goals For,’ scoring 241 goals in total. Based on the recent history and limited top-end skill in the line-up, this trend is not likely to continue in the fall. 9-1 wins in Colorado and a vastly improved PP in the last half played a part in this statistic, but the most significant variable comes in bounce-back campaigns. The likes of Tanguay, Morrison, Glencross and Jackman all put up decent point totals, arguably beyond expectations. Can we expect these heightened contributions a second time around? If not, how much can we expect team totals to drop off by April 2012?
Please note that this exercise is intended to be a reasonable prediction only, and thus nowhere near an exact science. As such, career years and unforeseen factors (trades, long-term injuries, etc) will not, and cannot be accounted for. Quite simply, these projections serve as a snapshot-in-time. While reading, please use this phrase: The Flames can RELY on ____ to score ____ goals this season:
Tanguay (20), Backlund (15), Iginla (32)
Glencross (18), Jokinen (15), Bourque (24)
Hagman (10), Langkow (12), Moss (14)
Morrison (8), Stajan (6), Jackman (8)
Fill-in fwds (<40 games): Kostopoulos (4), P-L-L (1)
Forward goal total: 187
Bouwmeester (5), Giordano (8)
Butler (4), Sarich (2)
Carson (0), Babchuk (8)
Fill-in D (<40 games): Brodie (2), Wilson (2)
Defence goal total: 31
Based on these assumptions, the Flames are due to score 218 goals this season. A 33-goal setback may seem insignificant over 82 games, but it would likely bury the Flames in the bottom ten teams league-wide. What does this mean?
Kipper and friends finished 19th best in 'Goals Against' in 2010-2011, perhaps under the category of "not good." With our 'Goals For' estimate in mind, keeping the puck out of their own net will be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs moving forward. It is my belief the team underachieved defensively last season, and it will continue to be an uphill battle from here.
'Goals Against' will improve if...
A) the PK can bounce back from a tough season. The Flames gave up 48 goals when a man short, good for 22nd best in the NHL. You could also call it 9th worst, but who needs that type of negativity? A healthy Daymond Langkow may help the cause, as an upgrade over the likes of Stajan, Morrison, Kostopoulos et al on the PK. His face-off consistency has never been strong, but Langks has proven he can be a solid PK option in spite of this weakness. Bourque seems to be more effective alongside Langks in all areas, but his defensive play is arguably the most drastic example of this.
B) Kiprusoff improves his consistency: both 5on5 and in special teams scenarios. I continue to support Kiprusoff as a #1 goaltender, but the wild swings game-to-game were a concern last season. He would steal a 1-0 win in Nashville one night, and completely blow it in Detroit the next game. He would make an outstanding desperation save, before failing to make the next routine save. Here's hoping Karlsson can push him to be more consistent, but something tells me Kipper will once again play 70+ games, in another "off-year."
C) Mobility saves the day on D. The trend of recent years has been the sexy and seemingly overvalued "mobile, puck mover" on D. The loss of Regehr will hurt, no question. However, with the increased responsibility for Giordano and the additions of Butler and Carson to the blueline, you could argue this team is more equipped to "keep up" with the quicker forwards in the rugged west. The D corps may be easier to play against without Regehr, but if a mobile back-end is in fact more important in today's game, we could see a competent blueline this year... Of course, there is strong emphasis on the word "could."
The Flames seemingly over-achieved in the goal scoring category last winter, which means a significant step forward in defensive play will be the only tonic to avoid another year of mediocrity. The franchise threw out its brand-name jeans (Regehr) in favor of some Costco and Walmart alternatives (Butler, Carson). If the cheaper material doesn't fade within the first few months, the Flames will boast an understated, but effective style. Otherwise, it may be time to pull out that old pair of black cords... And nobody likes wearing cords.
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Please note that this exercise is intended to be a reasonable prediction only, and thus nowhere near an exact science. As such, career years and unforeseen factors (trades, long-term injuries, etc) will not, and cannot be accounted for. Quite simply, these projections serve as a snapshot-in-time. While reading, please use this phrase: The Flames can RELY on ____ to score ____ goals this season:
Tanguay (20), Backlund (15), Iginla (32)
Glencross (18), Jokinen (15), Bourque (24)
Hagman (10), Langkow (12), Moss (14)
Morrison (8), Stajan (6), Jackman (8)
Fill-in fwds (<40 games): Kostopoulos (4), P-L-L (1)
Forward goal total: 187
Bouwmeester (5), Giordano (8)
Butler (4), Sarich (2)
Carson (0), Babchuk (8)
Fill-in D (<40 games): Brodie (2), Wilson (2)
Defence goal total: 31
Based on these assumptions, the Flames are due to score 218 goals this season. A 33-goal setback may seem insignificant over 82 games, but it would likely bury the Flames in the bottom ten teams league-wide. What does this mean?
Kipper and friends finished 19th best in 'Goals Against' in 2010-2011, perhaps under the category of "not good." With our 'Goals For' estimate in mind, keeping the puck out of their own net will be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs moving forward. It is my belief the team underachieved defensively last season, and it will continue to be an uphill battle from here.
'Goals Against' will improve if...
A) the PK can bounce back from a tough season. The Flames gave up 48 goals when a man short, good for 22nd best in the NHL. You could also call it 9th worst, but who needs that type of negativity? A healthy Daymond Langkow may help the cause, as an upgrade over the likes of Stajan, Morrison, Kostopoulos et al on the PK. His face-off consistency has never been strong, but Langks has proven he can be a solid PK option in spite of this weakness. Bourque seems to be more effective alongside Langks in all areas, but his defensive play is arguably the most drastic example of this.
B) Kiprusoff improves his consistency: both 5on5 and in special teams scenarios. I continue to support Kiprusoff as a #1 goaltender, but the wild swings game-to-game were a concern last season. He would steal a 1-0 win in Nashville one night, and completely blow it in Detroit the next game. He would make an outstanding desperation save, before failing to make the next routine save. Here's hoping Karlsson can push him to be more consistent, but something tells me Kipper will once again play 70+ games, in another "off-year."
C) Mobility saves the day on D. The trend of recent years has been the sexy and seemingly overvalued "mobile, puck mover" on D. The loss of Regehr will hurt, no question. However, with the increased responsibility for Giordano and the additions of Butler and Carson to the blueline, you could argue this team is more equipped to "keep up" with the quicker forwards in the rugged west. The D corps may be easier to play against without Regehr, but if a mobile back-end is in fact more important in today's game, we could see a competent blueline this year... Of course, there is strong emphasis on the word "could."
The Flames seemingly over-achieved in the goal scoring category last winter, which means a significant step forward in defensive play will be the only tonic to avoid another year of mediocrity. The franchise threw out its brand-name jeans (Regehr) in favor of some Costco and Walmart alternatives (Butler, Carson). If the cheaper material doesn't fade within the first few months, the Flames will boast an understated, but effective style. Otherwise, it may be time to pull out that old pair of black cords... And nobody likes wearing cords.
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Wednesday, June 8, 2011
The Erixon Escape & Other Dramatic Events
Let me break down the Tim Erixon situation in a slightly different way. Based on the countless “concerns” expressed by the Erixon camp so late in the process, it had nothing to do with not wanting to play in Calgary, and everything to do with playing for the New York Rangers. Did the player and his agent really think any team would allow their best prospect to go back into the draft after two solid years of development? The Erixon camp would have expected his rights to be dealt by the Flames. So, where do you trade his rights? To a team the player would actually sign with, otherwise the trade doesn’t get done. Did Feaster look to partner with the Rangers because he’s wanted to land Roman Horak for years? Not a chance. Tim and his agent made it difficult on the Flames for one reason: Erixon wanted to play in New York. He could have been traded to any of the other 29 teams, and you’re telling me it just happened to have been his birthplace, and his dad’s former team? I don’t buy it. If Tim was truly concerned about playing time and cap space, he would have been traded to and signed with the Oilers, Islanders or Panthers, NOT the New York Rangers. We’re talking about an organization that has a 7.5 million dollar defenseman playing in their farm system in order to make the dollars work under the cap. For whatever reason, Tim’s cap concerns disappeared as he signed on the dotted line in New York. The player had all of the leverage and bargaining power, and he used it to sign exactly where he wanted to play.
There’s a ton of Flames-bashing going on as a result of this. Simply put: when you offer a rookie the max contract allowed under the CBA, with select provisions to protect the player from AHL assignments and he still won’t sign, you do whatever you can to get some assets back for that player - which is exactly what Feaster did. I don’t blame the Flames for “waiting too long,” or the city for being an “undesirable playing destination” because I think both arguments are completely flawed. If your top young prospect appears concerned about the playing environment, you go to the 11th hour in an attempt to get the deal done – which is what Feaster did. You don’t just quit on the spot when you hear that a valued prospect is concerned about the “cap situation.” The trade itself? The team has two second-round picks it didn’t have before, and a mid-level prospect that has two years of development under his belt. By no means is it the ideal scenario, but I commend the Flames for making the best of a very tough situation. Good riddance Tiny Tim.
The additions of Craig Hartsburg and Jamie Pringle to the coaching staff will be important for the Flames down the road. By virtue of having a boatload of contracts off the books next offseason, and the impending buyouts/trades this June, the Flames will be a much younger team going forward. Let me remind everyone that trading Jarome Iginla is not the only way to get younger. With this process unfolding, it will be important to boast an experienced coaching staff, more suited to teaching than yelling and screaming. To me, that’s exactly what these two additions bring: an element of experience, with the skills and willingness to work with younger players. The other important factor in these hirings is familiarity, as Brent has worked with both coaches in his stints with Team Canada.
It will be interesting to see who the club will hire as AGM. If Feaster is looking for someone currently employed by another team, I expect he will have to wait until after the draft is complete. Makes sense, wouldn’t any organization be reluctant to have their management and scouts work an entire year leading up to the draft, just to take their knowledge and findings elsewhere before draft day? My preferred candidate would be Rick Dudley, given his past experience with JayFe, eye for young talent and recent availability. This may be a challenge, however; I don’t imagine Dudley is in any rush to take a demotion and work for his former AGM. Michel Goulet may be the more practical alternative. I expect we will hear about contract extensions for both Alex Tanguay and Henrik Karlsson within the next week. Just a hunch...
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Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Get Off Feaster's Keister
Last week’s announcements signalled a new direction for the Calgary Flames. Maybe not leaps and bounds off the beaten path, but a new direction nonetheless. The first of which was Jay Feaster’s subtle promotion to full-time General Manager. All of the criticism about the move has me scratching my head. It seems most were going to be unsatisfied unless the Flames hired one of Jim Nill or Ron Hextall. Let me start by saying: I’m not sure what the love affair with Hextall is, over any other former player in management. On the Nill front, it’s naive to think the Flames would have been the first to consider him for their vacant GM position. I expect he’s been contacted by a number of different teams over the years about a full-time gig as General Manager. You think he was holding out for a job in Calgary all these years? Not likely.
This fan base wanted change for the sake of change, which is a Darryl Sutter mentality: “Sign this guy... woops we underachieved... buy him out and sign this guy” or “Jimmy Playfair is our guy, nope lost to the Wings, It’s Keenan... No I hate that guy I’ll bring in my little brother to coach the team and pick on him.” New faces and turnover isn’t always the answer. Not to mention, do we know anything about Ron Hextall as a manager? Or are we simply impressed that he was the AGM when LA drafted Braydon Schenn at 5th overall? I don’t see how we can draw conclusions on any of these GM candidates, without first-hand evaluation of the individual. I’ll take Ken King’s appraisals and expertise over my own.
The second most prominent criticism of the move seems counter-intuitive as well. Why did the Flames wait to remove the “Acting” from Jay’s title? Well gee, everyone wants due diligence and for the team to take time to make the right decision, and yet there was ongoing “just give him the position already” chatter. How can these two views co-exist? Feaster wasn’t going to be handed the full-time gig as GM, as announced back in December. Ken King and Ownership made the decision to evaluate his contributions, while reviewing 3 managerial philosophy reports submitted by Feaster. You think Ken King had a quick skim through these reports and replied “Yup that’s fine, you’re our guy. We’ll inform the media in 5 months.” I’m sure there was some two-way dialogue, ownership doesn’t base decisions on convenience: “Well, he’s here anyway, so give him the job.” There was a process that was carried out, a plan that was approved, and the decision has been made. As a fan, that’s okay by me.
Does this mean I’m thrilled with Feaster as GM of the Calgary Flames? Of course not, how could I feel strongly one way or the other? When it comes to player trades, I’m prepared to formulate opinions on player trades and free agent signings, but I can’t pretend to know anything about what goes on behind closed doors in any boardroom in the NHL, and therefore no gut feel over management before any work has been done.
I share the same concerns as anyone else about Feaster’s track record: the Lecavalier signing, Brad Richards trade, and poor drafting record. I do, however, take solace in the fact that Jay is fourthcoming about these mistakes, and is able to pinpoint what should be done moving forward. Feaster never played the game, and doesn’t pretend to... but did anyone criticize Lou Lamoriello for his lack of professional playing experience? Most of my optimism for Jay’s promotion comes from a philosophical about-face. It wasn’t that Darryl Sutter didn’t understand hockey, or had a poor read on players. The issue was a top-heavy, autonomous structure by which decisions were made. This admission has been made by Ken King since Darryl's departure. From what I can gather, Darryl was an excellent hockey mind, and a brutal manager. The biggest change with this new regime will be the fundamental management of the organization. Jay will be more of a General Manager, and less of a straight up “hockey guy.” Former players that evolve into excellent businessmen and managers are a rare breed. Frankly, I’d rather have a manager with legal and business acumen formulating contracts and managing the team, while seeking input from “hockey guys” in the AGM or scouting positions for the expertise on developing and evaluating players. The new structure of the Calgary Flames was quoted as a “participative democracy,” something that was evidently lacking with the previous regime.
Do you think the supremacy of the Detroit Red Wings is entirely a result of Ken Holland’s playing experience? The Wings beefed up their scouting department, empowered secondary management resources like Jim Nill, and developed players from within. From what I can read, Holland is a fantastic manager because he manages. He doesn’t dictate, he doesn’t make trades or draft on a whim. He empowers strong resources in a number of different areas, in order to make sound, calculated decisions. I’m not aiming to convince anyone that Jay Feaster is a Ken Holland or Lou Lamoriello. All I can determine is that powerful, consistent organizations make joint decisions based on consensus.
The Glencross signing provided some reason for optimism. I wasn’t originally in favour of a Glencross return at all, based on his inflated market value that could have resulted in a 5 year deal worth 3+ million per. However, at 2.55 over 4 years, the cap hit is very manageable for a versatile player. Even if he pulls a Nik Hagman, or starts to regress as Rene Bourque has, 2.55 is not a toxic number for a 2nd or 3rd line contributor... and to think he will be earning less than the likes of Sarich, Stajan, Hagman and Kotalik next season puts the deal in perspective. Something tells me if this were Darryl’s deal, he would have hooked Glencross up with a Bourque-like deal: 5-6 years at 3.5 per with a no trade clause. Already, we’re seeing some steps in the right direction.
Obviously, the NMC for Glenny is a concern moving forward. Darryl set up this routine, making it difficult for Feaster to negotiate when over half the team has a no-move clause of some kind. I expect Tanguay’s demands will be similar: lesser dough, at a greater term and a NMC. It will be a tough pill to swallow, but I’d rather see Tanguay here and deal with the no-move consequences. When guys like Ales Kotalik, Olli Jokinen and Matt Stajan have some sort of no-move arrangement, it’s impossible to expect your first line winger to settle for any less security.
Jay’s stated philosophy, based on input and collaborative evaluation, brings the Flames much closer to that process. If you’re a believer in the phrase “two heads are better than one,” then there’s reason for optimism moving forward. As pinpointed by Rob Kerr of the Fan960, the Flames have quietly added 7 resources to their management and scouting ranks within the last year. Jay’s experience alongside Craig Conroy, Michel Goulet (Hall of Famer), Mike Holditch and an additional AGM -to-be-determined will bring a number of perspectives to the table, governed by Ken King and Flames’ ownership. So, while the announcements last week were not thrilling headline-stealers, I’m prepared to suggest the organization is in a better position than it was 6 months ago. Can’t wait for June and early July.
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Friday, May 6, 2011
My 2011-2012 Calgary Flames Roster
Everybody can enjoy pipe-dreams, but I’ve spent some time to pencil in what I consider to be a realistic line-up for the coming season. The team can sign a number of NCAA hopefuls out of college, and draft better than any team at the draft in Minnesota, but the immediate and material impact of these young players on the current roster would be limited - at best - for next season . Anyone who envisions otherwise isn’t being entirely realistic. From my standpoint, this team should look to upgrade in speed, while trying to get a tad younger on the back end. I will break down the transactions necessary, and the resulting roster – position by position.
FORWARDS
Re-sign Alex Tanguay - Somewhere in the neighbourhood of 3 million per year, or just over. Basically, he makes Jarome tick, so do what you can to keep him. He’s 30 years old, so he has at least a few years of solid hockey left. In other words, you can afford to keep him at a reasonable salary, but at multiple (2 or more) years. You might ask: how can you make cap space for his raise? Here are two ways.
Subtractions
This one is obvious and popular: Find somewhere for Ales Kotalik to play. The AHL, or a team in Russia. He has threatened to bolt to Europe already, so I don’t imagine that will take much convincing. Do what you can to get that 3M cap hit off your roster. Obviously, the organization still has to pay him that dough, but do what you can to get it off your cap. Other cap-relief options on forward, such as Matt Stajan or Nik Hagman, would likely require buy-outs. A Stajan buy-out would be a very expensive venture, given the dollars and term remaining on his deal. While he had a poor year, I don’t think Hagman should be the candidate either. He only has one year left on his deal, and to me isn’t in a catastrophic scenario where a buyout would be worth the dollars spent. He can still provide depth minutes, and has the ability to chip in offensively. Buy-outs should be considered a last resort, especially when Kotalik could be headed to Europe, and 2.7 million worth of Steve Staios will be freed up. Assuming multiple buy-outs are unrealistic, I’ll save my buy-out for later, when I break down the D core.
Here’s a second, less popular move: Allow Curtis Glencross to walk on July 1. In 3 seasons with the team, Glencross put up one very impressive 30-game stretch (in a contract year) and the rest has been bound with inconsistency and undisciplined play. He’s a very solid penalty killer and can score in bunches, but let’s leave it at that. Sorry folks, but the last thing this team needs is another underachieving 3+million dollar player. Cough (Rene Bourque, Nik Hagman, Matt Stajan) cough!
Additions
How do you replace the grit and speed of Glencross? By signing Scottie Upshall, assuming he's still available come July 1. Upshall is a gritty, pain-in-the-rear to play against, and he’s younger than Glencross. Let’s not forget: he scored an average of 20 goals per season playing for the Phoenix Coyotes. He’s done so primarily in a 3rd line role, to boot. As Glencross was this season, I think Upshall is due a promotion to top-six minutes. For my money, he’s a comparable player to Glencross with greater upside. Shoot for somewhere between 2-2.5 million for Upshall.
Sign Chris Higgins: an affordable, dependable option for depth. Higgins has decent speed, good defensive awareness and wins the one-on-one battles with regularity. He has the ability to provide some much needed secondary scoring, but is still a valuable player when he isn’t providing offence. He couldn’t catch many breaks around the net in his short stint as a Flame, but impressed many with his work ethic and all-around game. Feaster has preached the intent to bring in players that fit “Brent Sutter Hockey,” and I think Higgins is a good example of that. With his seemingly reasonable salary demands, it seems like a low-risk, potentially high-reward signing for the team. Cap hit should fall within the low-2 million range. Neither Upshall nor Higgins would be a fan-favourite on July 1, but I think both would fit in really well on this team, especially with its cap limitations.
As we know, the Flames’ forward ranks aren’t filled with much star talent or game-changing ability. So, work to your strengths, and utilize the depth by stringing together 4 balanced lines that provide at least some threat to score. The Nashville Predators, Phoenix Coyotes and New York Rangers have shown it is possible to win with 4 lines of balance and depth alone. Here’s how I would break down the forward ranks:
Line 1: Tanguay, Backlund, Iginla
Tanguay and Iginla speaks for itself. Why Backlund you say? Jokinen is clearly not a fit, and Langkow is a more suitable shutdown option. While a small stretch of games may not be a strong indication, Backlund provided some speed to that top line in the final stretch of the season. I’m not saying he’s is a proven #1 centre, but I think he’s a good fit with these two. Iggy and Tangs can pass it back and fourth all day, but it becomes predictable and easy to defend against when the the foot-speed isn't there. I don’t expect Backlund to be a top scorer, but his speed and creativity would make the trio more difficult to defend against. The elevated ice-time and increased two-way responsibility would help his development as well. It may be a big step for Backlund, but I think his presence on the top line would make Iginla and Tanguay better, and of course - vice versa.
Line 2: Upshall, Jokinen, Bourque
Jokinen was utilized as a shutdown option for the latter half of the season, but I don’t think he’s an ideal candidate for that role. While no longer an 80-point man, Jokinen is a big body, with decent speed and a good shot. His offensive capabilities, to me, still exceed his two-way game. Upshall can bring the speed and has a nose for the net, which can allow Bourque to be... what Bourque is. While his play is inconsistent, his skill-set and offensive proficiency is more suited to a top-six role. Upshall’s gritty play and Jokinen’s speed would create space for Bourque to chip in on the offense, and build on his 27 goals from last season – hopefully with more consistency.
Line 3: Higgins, Langkow, Moss
This would serve as the shutdown line, playing against the opposition’s best. All three of these players have demonstrated a solid, two-way game. While defensive accountability would be the key factor for this trio, I expect its best attribute would be the ability to cycle the puck in the offensive zone and force top lines on the opposition to play defence. This responsibility would allow Backlund and Jokinen’s line to play against more favourable match-ups, and create a balanced attack throughout the line-up.
Line 4: Hagman, Stajan, Jackman
Yes, this would in fact be the highest paid 4th line in hockey, but you can’t do anything about contracts that have already been signed. Matching line combinations based on salary would be foolish, especially with this roster. Stajan and Hagman would hopefully dominate these matchups, while Jackman’s solid play would help stablilize the game for the other two. The goons of the NHL have become somewhat obsolete. Today, it’s about having 4 lines that can provide some jump for you. I think this trio could do just that, while chipping in on offense with more regularity with its favourable matchups. This role, while not ideal for Stajan, would allow him to use his efficiency in the dot to take key faceoffs and provide some skill on the lower end of the depth chart. As a Flame, Hagman has been all-hustle and no finish, so he’ll fit right in on the 4th line.
Extra forwards: Bouma, Kostopoulos
Both options could come in and play a bottom-six role in an injury situation, while players like Moss, Higgins or Hagman could be shifted up the depth chart if need be.
DEFENCE
From what I can see, the league is moving towards more mobile, puck-moving defensemen. I think the Flames could be more proactive with that transition this offseason, by replacing older D men with youth and more quickness. Even from a divisional standpoint: the Flames will play the Oilers, Canucks and Avalanche somewhere in the neighborhood of 18 times. These organizations are at various stages, but all 3 teams boast a very quick team in the forward ranks. In order to keep up with these teams, mobility on the back end is more important than veteran experience. For example, while both are experienced and intelligent D men, Staios and Sarich simply cannot keep up with these high-octane, speedy teams. I remember back to a couple of ugly contests in Vancouver, where this was painfully evident. There’s a limit in flexibility for the forward ranks, but a youth movement on the back end in Calgary is actually viable. Here’s how I would go about doing that:
Subtractions
Allow Steve Staios and Anton Babchuk to walk on July 1. I won’t bother getting into the Staios explanation, but Babchuk is an intriguing case. I was very impressed with what we saw out of Babz last season. However, as a bottom-pairing D man, you can’t afford to pay him more than his current 1.4 million dollar paycheque. He’s an effective option on the PP, but I think you need to allow Brodie to evolve into that role. There are only so many dollars to go around to your 5-7 defensemen, so I think Babchuk’s spot should be freed up for Brodie.
Trade or buy-out Cory Sarich: Generally speaking, I think Sarich is a solid D man. He’s physical, and he keeps his game relatively simple. However, time and time again last season we saw Sarich lose a foot-race, or get beaten wide by an oncoming winger. I don’t think he’s suited to his current top-4 role, when there are quicker and more affordable options. Having said that, I certainly wouldn’t want his 3.6 million dollars being utilized in a bottom-two role, so I think it’s time to find a new home for Sarich. I imagine he would still have some trade value, as a serviceable shut-down type, so a swap of bad contracts may be in order. Should that fail, I think Sarich is the best option for a buy-out. Unlike on forward, young players are pushing on defence, and his contributions are replaceable.
Additions
Re-sign Brett Carson and Adam Pardy. Pardy has run into some injury issues in recent years, but he’s a solid option to have as an extra D man. He’s familiar with the system and would be able to fill in seamlessly in an injury situation – at near league minimum in dollars. As for Carson, I was very impressed with what we saw from him in the latter stages of the season. He played alongside Giordano for a number of games, and didn’t look out of place in the least. To my surprise, Carolina was very disappointed to lose Carson via waivers at the deadline. He has a big frame, but is very mobile and an effective puck-mover. He’s still a young D man, at 25 years of age, but he has some NHL experience under his belt. While he would be prone to the odd mistake, like all young D men, utilizing Carson alongside Giordano would provide a more mobile option in the top-4, while making considerably less dough than Sarich and his 3.6 million. For me, it’s an upgrade on all fronts.
Bring Tim Erixon and T.J. Brodie into the mix this season. Erixon has proven he can play big minutes against men in Sweden, so I would imagine the transition to be more seamless than most young defensemen. While sheltering his even strength minutes, allow Brodie to evolve as a second unit PP specialist of sorts. I expect Brodie’s development to mirror that of Giordano – start out as a sheltered D man, used only in certain situations, and slowly develop him into a well-rounded top-4 option (gradually, of course).
Here’s a breakdown of the defensive pairings, as I would position them:
Regehr – Bouwmeester:
Quite simply: a very solid shutdown option. Bouwmeester’s offensive totals haven’t met expectations, but this pairing provides elements of toughness and shutdown ability, along with quickness and intelligence. This tandem was utilized consistently from mid-season on, and I think it’s no coincidence that the team drastically improved from that point onwards. Pairing these two together from the outset would go a long way in getting back to the top of the league in goals against. These two big-minute D men not only provide some reliability against top opposition, but also allow Giordano to excel in his role against lesser competition.
Giordano – Carson:
Giordano is one of the best second-pairing D men in the league, and his game continues to evolve as an all-around defenseman. As such, I think you can afford to pair him with a younger D man like Carson, without giving up too much in terms of reliability in your top-4. Given the younger D core, the second pairing would be expected to play a more prominent role than in seasons past.
Erixon – Brodie:
These are both players that deserve to be on the big club next year. Having said that, I wouldn’t be confident placing either option in the top-4. Based on his pro experience in Sweden, Erixon may be a fit alongside Giordano at some point next season. At the outset, however, I would be more confident placing Carson in that role, with his NHL experience and development to this point. This bottom pairing would likely need to be sheltered against top-competition in most cases, but this placement would allow both players to get their feet wet at the NHL level, and provide some much needed mobility and puck skills on the back end.
Extra D man: Pardy
From a goaltending standpoint, Kiprusoff can still carry the majority of the load (hopefully only 60 games), while re-signing Karlsson would provide some stability at the back-up position. Not only is Karlsson an effective back-up, but at 26 years old, he further solidifies the goaltending future of the organization. While Irving carries the load in the AHL, and youngster Ortio gets some games in at the pro level, Karlsson provides yet another option a couple of years from now. A 2 year, two-way contract would be ideal, as it would allow the organization to bring up Irving (or even Ortio) for short stints, should the opportunity present itself. It would be more beneficial down the road to have Irving excel at the AHL level, rather than have him sit on the bench and get shelled 10 games a year (CuMac).
What changes would you make in the offseason, and what would that look like come September?
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Friday, April 29, 2011
Sitting, Waiting, Wishing
The wild ride has ended.
While stringing together a solid stretch to end the season, the first half of 2010-2011 is what extinguished the Flames' playoff hopes. Not if Team A lost and Team B won, or if the Flames had one point here or one point there. If you put yourself in a position where you need to play above 0.700 hockey in the last 3 months of the season, you really shouldn't be in the playoff conversation. Having said that, I'd take a last-minute miss on the playoffs over a 14th or 15th place lottery season any day. The team made it exciting, and forced themselves back in that conversation, which isn't beyond recognition. Looking back at the season as a whole, there were some positives:
Jarome Iginla, 34 years of age: 43 goals. Franchise and personal records aplenty.
Alex Tanguay: Career saving season, proving he is the best possible linemate for Iginla, on the best bargain of a contract in 2010-2011: 69 points.
Mark Giordano: continues to impress and, despite his minus rating on the year, continues to evolve as a complete defenceman. Even at his new cap hit of 4M, he was a very important signing for this team moving forward.
Mikael Backlund: While there was nothing spectacular about Backlund's first full season in the NHL, I think we saw some steady progression and improvement from start to finish. Excited to see if he can carry that forward to next season.
Tim Jackman: Despite his limited role, Tim was one of the most consistent players on this team. Nice to finally have that "net-front presence" on the PP as well. Safe to say, Jackman was a pleasant surprise this season.
Of course, there were some disappointments:
Rene Bourque: Wildly inconsistent and seemingly disinterested, yet still managed to score 27 goals. Very good production, given he only showed up for half the games.
Matt Stajan: What more can you say? His soft play landed him bottom six minutes, and he didn't show any upside to be promoted to a more prominent role. Can't wait for 3 more years of the same.
Ales Kotalik: I'm not even sure this is a disappointment, it's almost exactly the season we expected from AK26.
Nik Hagman: Lots of hustle, but nothing to show for it. I can't say I'm surprised that Stajan and Kotalik have underperformed wearing the flaming C, but Hagman still baffles me. He has the skill, he has the speed... He's scored 30 goals on more than one occasion, in more than one conference. Seems to be strictly a confidence issue for Hagman. If he contributes on the scoresheet early next season, I think we'll see a completely different player from start to finish. That is, assuming he survives the offseason.
Hot streaks aside, this team is not skilled or quick enough to compete with the best in the NHL. Its stars are aging, and its future is in question - a circumstance that may be acceptable if it were a playoff contender today, but that's simply not the case. The Flames have been a bubble team for a number of years, and show few signs of improvement on that status.
Many are calling for a "rebuild" but I think that approach only applies to a franchise with no other option (e.g Oilers, Islanders). My preference would be to trade one member of the "core" for a younger offensive piece, and replace the spots of underachieving veterans with younger players - be it NHL, Junior or College free agents. These players don't have to be 18-20 year old stars, but should serve as an upgrade in team speed, with potential to develop over the next several seasons. So, rather than a rebuild, I would attempt to surround the core talent with younger components to build around in years to come. Perhaps more of a "refresh" than a "rebuild."
There are a number of question marks heading into the offseason. First off, who is the full-time GM? Ken King suggested that question would be answered in the next 2-3 weeks. To this point, 3 assistant/associate coaches have been released: Rob Cookson, Jamie McLennan and perhaps most surprisingly, Ryan McGill. From an outsider's perspective, the most reasonable explanation for the McGill release would be the decline of the penalty kill. According to Ken King, the position is not reserved for any one coach in particular, and Brent will begin to interview candidates in the coming weeks.
So what's next? A big trade? A surprising firing? A long term deal for Curtis Glencross or Alex Tanguay? The analysis will continue, but no question: this will be a very interesting offseason for the Calgary Flames. Stay tuned!
Follow posts on twitter at @GMDW10
While stringing together a solid stretch to end the season, the first half of 2010-2011 is what extinguished the Flames' playoff hopes. Not if Team A lost and Team B won, or if the Flames had one point here or one point there. If you put yourself in a position where you need to play above 0.700 hockey in the last 3 months of the season, you really shouldn't be in the playoff conversation. Having said that, I'd take a last-minute miss on the playoffs over a 14th or 15th place lottery season any day. The team made it exciting, and forced themselves back in that conversation, which isn't beyond recognition. Looking back at the season as a whole, there were some positives:
Jarome Iginla, 34 years of age: 43 goals. Franchise and personal records aplenty.
Alex Tanguay: Career saving season, proving he is the best possible linemate for Iginla, on the best bargain of a contract in 2010-2011: 69 points.
Mark Giordano: continues to impress and, despite his minus rating on the year, continues to evolve as a complete defenceman. Even at his new cap hit of 4M, he was a very important signing for this team moving forward.
Mikael Backlund: While there was nothing spectacular about Backlund's first full season in the NHL, I think we saw some steady progression and improvement from start to finish. Excited to see if he can carry that forward to next season.
Tim Jackman: Despite his limited role, Tim was one of the most consistent players on this team. Nice to finally have that "net-front presence" on the PP as well. Safe to say, Jackman was a pleasant surprise this season.
Of course, there were some disappointments:
Rene Bourque: Wildly inconsistent and seemingly disinterested, yet still managed to score 27 goals. Very good production, given he only showed up for half the games.
Matt Stajan: What more can you say? His soft play landed him bottom six minutes, and he didn't show any upside to be promoted to a more prominent role. Can't wait for 3 more years of the same.
Ales Kotalik: I'm not even sure this is a disappointment, it's almost exactly the season we expected from AK26.
Nik Hagman: Lots of hustle, but nothing to show for it. I can't say I'm surprised that Stajan and Kotalik have underperformed wearing the flaming C, but Hagman still baffles me. He has the skill, he has the speed... He's scored 30 goals on more than one occasion, in more than one conference. Seems to be strictly a confidence issue for Hagman. If he contributes on the scoresheet early next season, I think we'll see a completely different player from start to finish. That is, assuming he survives the offseason.
Hot streaks aside, this team is not skilled or quick enough to compete with the best in the NHL. Its stars are aging, and its future is in question - a circumstance that may be acceptable if it were a playoff contender today, but that's simply not the case. The Flames have been a bubble team for a number of years, and show few signs of improvement on that status.
Many are calling for a "rebuild" but I think that approach only applies to a franchise with no other option (e.g Oilers, Islanders). My preference would be to trade one member of the "core" for a younger offensive piece, and replace the spots of underachieving veterans with younger players - be it NHL, Junior or College free agents. These players don't have to be 18-20 year old stars, but should serve as an upgrade in team speed, with potential to develop over the next several seasons. So, rather than a rebuild, I would attempt to surround the core talent with younger components to build around in years to come. Perhaps more of a "refresh" than a "rebuild."
There are a number of question marks heading into the offseason. First off, who is the full-time GM? Ken King suggested that question would be answered in the next 2-3 weeks. To this point, 3 assistant/associate coaches have been released: Rob Cookson, Jamie McLennan and perhaps most surprisingly, Ryan McGill. From an outsider's perspective, the most reasonable explanation for the McGill release would be the decline of the penalty kill. According to Ken King, the position is not reserved for any one coach in particular, and Brent will begin to interview candidates in the coming weeks.
So what's next? A big trade? A surprising firing? A long term deal for Curtis Glencross or Alex Tanguay? The analysis will continue, but no question: this will be a very interesting offseason for the Calgary Flames. Stay tuned!
Follow posts on twitter at @GMDW10
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
The Resurgence of Spare Parts
This past offseason, Darryl Doom Sutter had the hockey world scratching its collective head. While understandably limited in his cap flexibility, Sutter added three forwards that had recently plummeted in value – Olli Jokinen, Alex Tanguay and Brendan Morrison. Coming off career lows, these players fit in perfectly with a group of underachieving Calgary Flames, a team that continued to get older and less productive. Coupled with the signing of two enforcers in Raitis Ivanans and Tim Jackman, the direction of this team seemed clouded as ever.
Coming off a disappointing campaign in 2009-2010, I was desperately searching optimism: At least a handful of these players would bounce back from career lows, right? From the perspective of individual productivity, this team couldn’t possibly get worse… Could it?
Wrong. For half a season, the Calgary Flames did just that. Jarome Iginla was merely invisible, Miikka Kiprusoff looked human, and the likes of Jay Bouwmeester, Robyn Regehr and Ian White were fading rapidly from relevance. The team spiralled into 14th place. To make matters worse, Darryl began to shift the deck chairs once again, swinging a deal with the Hurricanes. At first glance, the move seemed counter productive: why trade for another fourth liner, and who the heck is Anton Babchuk?
From 14th place, many of us (myself included) spent more time analyzing the team’s trade bait and draft positioning, rather than its game-to-game performance. I was especially guilty of this, as I stopped looking at five-game segments, and began blogging entirely on big-picture concepts: contracts, buyouts and trade scenarios. Frankly, there wasn’t enough to write about between intervals. You can only vent on Jokinen’s ineffectiveness and Bourque’s disinterest so long before it becomes, well, boring. Eventually, Jay Feaster would sub in for Darryl Sutter, and despite what the organization would preach about a playoff push, many of us took the shift at GM to indicate an early start to next season.
Then, something happened. None of us on the outside can say for certain, but to say that Feaster’s cheerleading was the missing ingredient is not entirely realistic. Jay did, however, take one simple approach: drain the deadweight contracts, and allow Brent Sutter and his staff to coach the team in isolation. Not exactly rocket science, but a shift in philosophy nonetheless. A dose of clarity to an organization desperate for some direction.
The Flames have gone 18-6-6 in 2011, earning 42 of a possible 60 points. They currently sit 6th in the Western Conference. Games at hand and shootout points considered, the team is by no means a lock for the post season. However, there is reason to celebrate a complete reversal from its dwindling status in 14th, and a realistic shot at a playoff spot. Special teams progress has had a significant impact on the Flames position. The team sits at 18.4% on the PP, and has climbed to an 82.6% efficiency rate on the PK. Above all, back in October, who would have expected the Flames to sit top-ten among the NHL in goals-for? After 68 games, the team sits 6th in the NHL in goal scoring - in the mix with Detroit , Chicago , Vancouver , Philadelphia and Boston
The team’s season-end result comes second to its impressive resurgence. I’m prepared to take a seat; I thought I was so clever in my early and steadfast deadline predictions back in January (http://wizwonders.blogspot.com/2011/01/trade-deadline-predictions-5-players-on.html) but I went 0-for-5. At the time, the team’s success seemed no more than an average team on a hot-streak. Well, safe to say 3 months of solid hockey is more than a hot-streak. This is a good team. Not an elite team, not a powerhouse contender, but a good team. So what fundamental components can we point to, in this resurgence of spare parts?
BRENT SUTTER
As mentioned earlier, Brent’s role with the team shifted once Feaster took the reins. BSutt has had the freedom to assemble the line-ups based entirely on performance, without any consideration for seniority or salary implications. The Jokinen-Iginla experiments came to an end, and both players have been streaking since. Stajan and Hagman’s soft play (6.5M cap hit worth) has landed them bottom-six minutes, and the likes of Glencross and Moss have been given the green light to build on their solid two-way performance. Brent has also found more suitable roles for his D pairings, allocating ice-time more conducive to individual strengths. Special consideration goes to the utilization of Anton Babchuk, who has played some protected even strength minutes, alongside significant PP exposure to use that big (!) shot of his. Credit to Kent Wilson of FlamesNation, who posted an in-depth assessment of Babchuk and Jokinen yesterday:
BALANCE
Brent’s savvy match-ups and pairings have allowed the team to develop some consistency, and work towards that immeasurable, intangible factor: chemistry. I’m still iffy on the term “chemistry,” but perhaps “familiarity” is a more suitable explanation. Injuries have played a role in it, but locked pairings of Iggy-Tanguay, Jokinen-Glencross, Stajan-Jackman, and Backlund-Hagman have established familiarity and developed a balanced attack throughout the line-up. Most importantly, an effective one-two punch in the top six, with Jokinen and Glencross evolving as a shutdown tandem that scores goals against top opposition. This has reduced some of the workload for the top line, and they’ve capitalized on it (Iggy: 8 pts in last 4 GP, sits 8th in league scoring). This has created a ripple effect on the rest of the line-up, as unusual candidates for bottom-six minutes (Bourque, Stajan, Hagman) are able to work through some favourable match-ups to generate opportunities. Do the Flames possess a scary no. 1 line? No. This team carries 3 lines that can contribute on the score sheet, and a 4th line that has the ability to outperform 4th line opposition. To me, continuity has allowed for a more balanced attack throughout the roster, which has been a fundamental factor in the turnaround of this team.
THAT SHUTDOWN TANDEM
The departure of Ian White finally put an end to the Regehr-White pairing. An injury to Steve Staios limited Brent’s ability to couple Steady Steve with Jay Bouwmeester, for yet another attempt at an already failed experiment. For whatever reason, coupling Bouwmeester with Regehr hadn’t been tried with any regularity. Doesn’t it make sense to pair your two top-minute defensemen together, or at least try it? Well, that day finally came - and the rest is history. The shutdown pairing of Jbo and Regehr has combined to boast a +17 rating against top opposition players. Regehr’s solid game has allowed Bouwmeester to make use of his own strengths. In return, Jay’s speed and puck-moving ability have added components that compliment Robyn’s game. This tandem has been solid and consistent against the NHL’s best, and serves as a primary factor in Kiprusoff’s return to form.
ONE CONCERN: USE OF THE BACK-UP
I know. I’m tired of this debate too.
For many years, Kiprusoff has carried the load: partly because he’s a world-class goaltender, and partly due to a lack of confidence in the team’s back-up. As it stands now, Kipper has started 20 games in a row. While I don’t question his conditioning or durability, I think it’s important to make use of your back-up goaltender, because that’s why the position exists. The only way to establish a reputable back-up is to allow him to play.
Karlsson has shown he can play at this level, and will need another opportunity. Not only for the sake of Kiprusoff and a potential playoff drive, but also for the long-term direction of the team. The organization has some important decisions to make this offseason (Karlsson vs. Irving Phoenix
To wrap up, the resurgence of the Calgary Flames has not only brought the team back to league-wide relevance, but generated a renewed excitement throughout the city. The team is winning games through consistent play, along with the odd lucky bounce. In other words: the Flames are finding ways to win – a characteristic of good hockey teams. Will they make the playoffs? Here’s hoping, but at least there’s some excitement game-to-game, and that’s what being a fan is all about.
To wrap up, the resurgence of the Calgary Flames has not only brought the team back to league-wide relevance, but generated a renewed excitement throughout the city. The team is winning games through consistent play, along with the odd lucky bounce. In other words: the Flames are finding ways to win – a characteristic of good hockey teams. Will they make the playoffs? Here’s hoping, but at least there’s some excitement game-to-game, and that’s what being a fan is all about.
Go Flames Go!
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
Friday, January 28, 2011
Trade Deadline Predictions: 5 Players On Their Way Out
A recent surge by the Calgary Flames certainly complicates the focus of the organization heading into trade season. My view? Jay Feaster was handed the reigns on an "acting" basis to make changes, and one month of solid hockey isn't going to fix the underlying shortcomings of the team. Regardless of any playoff pursuit, I expect the Flames to be sellers by the deadline. That is: shipping out veteran contributors for younger options - be it picks or unproven youngsters, to spur an eventual youth movement in Calgary.
For starters, here are some key points to remember about Jay Feaster:
1) He has expressed an intent to obtain value for *pending free agents*
2) His goal is to become more *mobile* on defense. He emphasized the importance of quick, puck moving defense in today's game
3) He plans to surround the "core" with players that can commit to Brent's style on a *consistent* basis. In other words, Feaster intends to build the team around Brent. Agree or disagree, at least the plan has an element of consistency to it.
4) He has expressed a desire to re-stock the team's draft picks. As it stands now, the Flames have 1 pick in the top 100 for the upcoming draft. Should Feaster prevail, we can expect a number of mid-level picks heading West this February.
One rule: We would all love to trade Ales Kotalik and Olli Jokinen for draft picks and skate sharpeners. The reality? No organzation would be willing to take on those contracts, even if they find some absurd reason to give up assets in order to acquire them. I'll try to remain as realistic as possible when addressing potential trade components on the Flames. In doing so, I'll steer clear of these deadweight contracts in order to set fourth reasonable predictions.
5 players on their way out of Calgary by February 28, 2011:
ROBYN REGEHR (2 years remaining, no-movement clause)
It will be tough to see Reggie go, but his inflated trade value around the leave presents an opportunity that shouldn't - and won't - be passed up. Compounded with 2 more years at a shade over 4 million per, Regehr's trade value is at its peak, and the Flames strength on defense would allow the team to manage without. Unlike, let's say, Jarome Iginla's offensive contributions. Given the team's inconsistency in recent years, one of the leaders - Iginla or Regehr - is bound to be dealt. For my money, it's more realistic to replace a shutdown defenseman than an all star, franchise-leading goal scorer.
Comparable Transactions
- Scott Hannan for Tomas Fleischmann
- Michal Roszival for Wojtek Wolski
Potential Return
Here's the best news - given recent transactions around the league, a deal involving Regehr would garner a hefty return - potentially involving a 1st round pick, along with some youthful offensive depth.
CURTIS GLENCROSS (Pending UFA)
Glencross was a bargain signing in the summer of '08. While I've been a big fan of his tenacity and underrated skill set, Glencross' contributions have been wildly inconsistent - an attribute that has plagued the entire team in recent memory. Curtis has a club membership to Brent's doghouse, and has expressed frustration with his limited opportunity at a top-six role on the team. With this in mind, it seems unlikely that Glencross would be re-signed by the team this summer. Expect Feaster to ship him off and acquire an asset while the option is still available to do so. He would be a low-risk, depth acquisition for a number of teams - most likely of the contending variety.
Comparable Transactions
- Dominic Moore for a 2nd rd pick
- Raffi Torres for Nathan Paetsch, 2nd rd pick
Potential Return - 3 Scenarios
1) Strong team seeking bottom-6 depth:
Glencross for 3rd rd pick
2) Lower seed team, looking for an affordable top-6 option:
Glencross for 2nd rd pick (e.g. Rene Bourque acquisition by CGY)
3) Playoff team looking to ship off an expiring contract of its own - unlikely to re-sign:
Glencross for Bergfors
Glencross for Upshall
Given the desperate nature of the trade deadline, we can expect a team to give up too much for a versatile, energy player like Glencross. Comparable transactions from last year's deadline (see above) bode well for the Flames in this case.
NIKLAS HAGMAN (1 year remaining)
Nik Hagman is what he is: a 31 year old, speedy Finnish winger, that could be a valuable asset to any team... should he find a way to improve his consistency. Based on Feaster's intentions to turn the page with this team, I don't see a scenario wherein Hagman survives the transition. As a capable secondary scoring option, his trade value hasn't completely deteriorated. Unlike Glencross, it's difficult to equate Hagman's deficiencies to a lack of work ethic. He moves his feet, can crash and bang along the wall, and provides some much needed energy for the team. Unfortunately, Hagman simply isn't able to "finnish" (no pun intended). Perhaps his hustle would be rewarded with a more offensively potent line-up, skating alongside players not named Stajan, Jokinen or Kotalik.
Comparable Transactions
- Jeff Halpern for Teddy Purcell, 3rd rd pick
- Matt D'Agostini for Aaron Palushaj
Potential Return
Hagman's additional year under contract helps his trade value. A 2nd rd pick would be a steal, but Hagman is more likely to yield a 3rd rd pick, or mid-level prospect. He's a viable option to re-stock a pick in the top 100 for the upcoming draft, a goal clearly outlined by Jay Feaster.
BRENDAN MORRISON (Pending UFA)
Morrison has proved to be an impressive value signing for the Flames this season. When he isn't contributing on the scoresheet, he's winning face-offs, killing penalties and finding some way to make his linemates better. Brendan has played well on lines 1-4, at centre and on the wing. Luckily for the Flames, Morrison now represents a valuable spare part for any playoff team. With 4 NHL options at centre (Jokinen, Stajan, Backlund, Moss) and viable options in Abbotsford (Wahl, Stone, Armstrong), it seems very unlikely that Feaster would look to re-sign a 35 year old depth centreman. The good news? Morrison has created a market for his services that was non-existent a mere 5 months ago.
Comparable Transactions
- Scott Walker for a 7th rd pick
- Jamie Langenbrunner for a conditional 3rd rd pick
Potential Return
Given his age, Morrison's expiring, pro-rated $725,000 contract serves as an asset, as it gives any organization the ability to evaluate his performance in a small snapshot. This creates some flexibility in the offseason, with no long-term commitments or cap obligations beyond this season. At age 35, the ceiling may be limited, but Morrison's versatility could render a 4th rd pick, which would contribute to the inevitable youth movement in Calgary.
ANTON BABCHUK (Pending UFA)
Since his arrival on the scene, Babchuk has performed as advertised. He's a 5th/6th defenseman, often protected from top line competition, and serves primarily as a powerplay specialist. His shutdown ability is limited, but his overall defensive game has progressed in his short stint with the Flames. Babchuk leads all Flames defensemen with 4 PP goals, and - as advertised - does possess a heavy shot from the back end (2nd only to our hero: Ales Kotalik).
While we're at it, here's an interesting comparison from The 4th Line Blog:
Babchuk-14 Points in last 34 games.
Phaneuf-11 Points in last 33 games.
... Just provides a little somethin' to giggle at. Babchuk has been a capable depth defender, and brings a secret threat on the powerplay. So, what's the market for a depth defenseman like Babs for the stretch run?
Comparable Transactions
- Martin Skoula for 5th rd pick
- Shane O'Brien for Ryan Parent
As a one-dimensional defenseman, the return on Anton Babchuk is limited. Nevertheless, expect Feaster to find a taker on this PP specialist, and attain a late round pick (5th/6th rd) or mid-level prospect in return.
And so ends my predictions for the upcoming trade deadline. Remember, these were assembled based on what we've heard from JayFe to this point, and do not necessarily reflect my own preferences. Look forward to hearing some of your expectations for the deadline!
Here's what we know for sure: this is an intriguing time to follow the Calgary Flames.
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
For starters, here are some key points to remember about Jay Feaster:
1) He has expressed an intent to obtain value for *pending free agents*
2) His goal is to become more *mobile* on defense. He emphasized the importance of quick, puck moving defense in today's game
3) He plans to surround the "core" with players that can commit to Brent's style on a *consistent* basis. In other words, Feaster intends to build the team around Brent. Agree or disagree, at least the plan has an element of consistency to it.
4) He has expressed a desire to re-stock the team's draft picks. As it stands now, the Flames have 1 pick in the top 100 for the upcoming draft. Should Feaster prevail, we can expect a number of mid-level picks heading West this February.
One rule: We would all love to trade Ales Kotalik and Olli Jokinen for draft picks and skate sharpeners. The reality? No organzation would be willing to take on those contracts, even if they find some absurd reason to give up assets in order to acquire them. I'll try to remain as realistic as possible when addressing potential trade components on the Flames. In doing so, I'll steer clear of these deadweight contracts in order to set fourth reasonable predictions.
5 players on their way out of Calgary by February 28, 2011:
ROBYN REGEHR (2 years remaining, no-movement clause)
It will be tough to see Reggie go, but his inflated trade value around the leave presents an opportunity that shouldn't - and won't - be passed up. Compounded with 2 more years at a shade over 4 million per, Regehr's trade value is at its peak, and the Flames strength on defense would allow the team to manage without. Unlike, let's say, Jarome Iginla's offensive contributions. Given the team's inconsistency in recent years, one of the leaders - Iginla or Regehr - is bound to be dealt. For my money, it's more realistic to replace a shutdown defenseman than an all star, franchise-leading goal scorer.
Comparable Transactions
- Scott Hannan for Tomas Fleischmann
- Michal Roszival for Wojtek Wolski
Potential Return
Here's the best news - given recent transactions around the league, a deal involving Regehr would garner a hefty return - potentially involving a 1st round pick, along with some youthful offensive depth.
CURTIS GLENCROSS (Pending UFA)
Glencross was a bargain signing in the summer of '08. While I've been a big fan of his tenacity and underrated skill set, Glencross' contributions have been wildly inconsistent - an attribute that has plagued the entire team in recent memory. Curtis has a club membership to Brent's doghouse, and has expressed frustration with his limited opportunity at a top-six role on the team. With this in mind, it seems unlikely that Glencross would be re-signed by the team this summer. Expect Feaster to ship him off and acquire an asset while the option is still available to do so. He would be a low-risk, depth acquisition for a number of teams - most likely of the contending variety.
Comparable Transactions
- Dominic Moore for a 2nd rd pick
- Raffi Torres for Nathan Paetsch, 2nd rd pick
Potential Return - 3 Scenarios
1) Strong team seeking bottom-6 depth:
Glencross for 3rd rd pick
2) Lower seed team, looking for an affordable top-6 option:
Glencross for 2nd rd pick (e.g. Rene Bourque acquisition by CGY)
3) Playoff team looking to ship off an expiring contract of its own - unlikely to re-sign:
Glencross for Bergfors
Glencross for Upshall
Given the desperate nature of the trade deadline, we can expect a team to give up too much for a versatile, energy player like Glencross. Comparable transactions from last year's deadline (see above) bode well for the Flames in this case.
NIKLAS HAGMAN (1 year remaining)
Nik Hagman is what he is: a 31 year old, speedy Finnish winger, that could be a valuable asset to any team... should he find a way to improve his consistency. Based on Feaster's intentions to turn the page with this team, I don't see a scenario wherein Hagman survives the transition. As a capable secondary scoring option, his trade value hasn't completely deteriorated. Unlike Glencross, it's difficult to equate Hagman's deficiencies to a lack of work ethic. He moves his feet, can crash and bang along the wall, and provides some much needed energy for the team. Unfortunately, Hagman simply isn't able to "finnish" (no pun intended). Perhaps his hustle would be rewarded with a more offensively potent line-up, skating alongside players not named Stajan, Jokinen or Kotalik.
Comparable Transactions
- Jeff Halpern for Teddy Purcell, 3rd rd pick
- Matt D'Agostini for Aaron Palushaj
Potential Return
Hagman's additional year under contract helps his trade value. A 2nd rd pick would be a steal, but Hagman is more likely to yield a 3rd rd pick, or mid-level prospect. He's a viable option to re-stock a pick in the top 100 for the upcoming draft, a goal clearly outlined by Jay Feaster.
BRENDAN MORRISON (Pending UFA)
Morrison has proved to be an impressive value signing for the Flames this season. When he isn't contributing on the scoresheet, he's winning face-offs, killing penalties and finding some way to make his linemates better. Brendan has played well on lines 1-4, at centre and on the wing. Luckily for the Flames, Morrison now represents a valuable spare part for any playoff team. With 4 NHL options at centre (Jokinen, Stajan, Backlund, Moss) and viable options in Abbotsford (Wahl, Stone, Armstrong), it seems very unlikely that Feaster would look to re-sign a 35 year old depth centreman. The good news? Morrison has created a market for his services that was non-existent a mere 5 months ago.
Comparable Transactions
- Scott Walker for a 7th rd pick
- Jamie Langenbrunner for a conditional 3rd rd pick
Potential Return
Given his age, Morrison's expiring, pro-rated $725,000 contract serves as an asset, as it gives any organization the ability to evaluate his performance in a small snapshot. This creates some flexibility in the offseason, with no long-term commitments or cap obligations beyond this season. At age 35, the ceiling may be limited, but Morrison's versatility could render a 4th rd pick, which would contribute to the inevitable youth movement in Calgary.
ANTON BABCHUK (Pending UFA)
Since his arrival on the scene, Babchuk has performed as advertised. He's a 5th/6th defenseman, often protected from top line competition, and serves primarily as a powerplay specialist. His shutdown ability is limited, but his overall defensive game has progressed in his short stint with the Flames. Babchuk leads all Flames defensemen with 4 PP goals, and - as advertised - does possess a heavy shot from the back end (2nd only to our hero: Ales Kotalik).
While we're at it, here's an interesting comparison from The 4th Line Blog:
Babchuk-14 Points in last 34 games.
Phaneuf-11 Points in last 33 games.
... Just provides a little somethin' to giggle at. Babchuk has been a capable depth defender, and brings a secret threat on the powerplay. So, what's the market for a depth defenseman like Babs for the stretch run?
Comparable Transactions
- Martin Skoula for 5th rd pick
- Shane O'Brien for Ryan Parent
As a one-dimensional defenseman, the return on Anton Babchuk is limited. Nevertheless, expect Feaster to find a taker on this PP specialist, and attain a late round pick (5th/6th rd) or mid-level prospect in return.
And so ends my predictions for the upcoming trade deadline. Remember, these were assembled based on what we've heard from JayFe to this point, and do not necessarily reflect my own preferences. Look forward to hearing some of your expectations for the deadline!
Here's what we know for sure: this is an intriguing time to follow the Calgary Flames.
Follow posts on twitter @GMDW10
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